Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

[Snow_Miser]

The chart I posted from the GRACE site is the cumulative measured Antarctic ice loss for the period 2003 through 2011.  GRACE actually measures the gravimetric changes in the Antarctic ice sheet - it's empirical data, not model output.

 

In my opinion, actual data and observations (GRACE) have a lot more credibility than output from unverified and unvalidated computer models (Munneke).  Do you agree that data trumps models - or, if not, could you share the reasons for your preference for models over empirical data?

 

I question GRACE's depiction for Antarctica. It even shows some melting in East Antarctica, which would be physically impossible, unless East Antarctica had something along the lines of a +50-+60 departure from normal in the summer.

 

 

If you looked through the Munneke et al. paper, you would have seen their model being compared to observations from satellite measurements. Given that the two match up pretty well, it raises two possibilities.

 

They are similar for the wrong reasons, or they are similar for the right reasons.

[Snow_Miser]

 

Antarctic Sea Ice continues to be well above normal.

[Isotherm]

Might be approaching record high levels of sea ice by the end of this summer in the Antarctic. Earth's feedback processes are much more powerful than many folks realize, and even if the sea ice increase is due to a warming globe (as some scientists postulate via stronger land-sea winds and fresh water freezing), it's likely that this negative feedback will continue w/ a warmer temps. However, I think the primary drivers here are the oceans, and it's not a coincidence that when the Arctic was at its height, the Antarctic sea ice was quite low, and vice versa. A colder world w/ -PDO/-ENSO/-AMO dominant state implies less fresh water release from continental Antarctic glaciers, and thus higher salinity levels surrounding Antarctica. Therefore, more energy is required to freeze and expand sea ice when Antarctica is colder. Additionally, oceans surrounding Antarctica make it more difficult to decrease SST's offshore, while continents surround the Arctic, so it benefits with colder global temps. The physics of the north pole and south pole melting/freezing are completely different. A colder global climate helps the Arctic ice sea increase while a warmer climate aids in the Antarctica sea ice increase. It's a perfect balance. Once the AMO turns colder, we'll see things begin to reverse. We've already past the worst (lowest) point of Arctic sea ice loss, and have seen a slight upward trend recently.

[Snow_Miser]

Might be approaching record high levels of sea ice by the end of this summer in the Antarctic. Earth's feedback processes are much more powerful than many folks realize, and even if the sea ice increase is due to a warming globe (as some scientists postulate via stronger land-sea winds and fresh water freezing), it's likely that this negative feedback will continue w/ a warmer temps. However, I think the primary drivers here are the oceans, and it's not a coincidence that when the Arctic was at its height, the Antarctic sea ice was quite low, and vice versa. A colder world w/ -PDO/-ENSO/-AMO dominant state implies less fresh water release from continental Antarctic glaciers, and thus higher salinity levels surrounding Antarctica. Therefore, more energy is required to freeze and expand sea ice when Antarctica is colder. Additionally, oceans surrounding Antarctica make it more difficult to decrease SST's offshore, while continents surround the Arctic, so it benefits with colder global temps. The physics of the north pole and south pole melting/freezing are completely different. A colder global climate helps the Arctic ice sea increase while a warmer climate aids in the Antarctica sea ice increase. It's a perfect balance. Once the AMO turns colder, we'll see things begin to reverse. We've already past the worst (lowest) point of Arctic sea ice loss, and have seen a slight upward trend recently.

 

100% agree. The Bipolar see-saw effect is quite evident in the Antarctic and Arctic detrended temperature records over the 20th Century.

 

 

From Chylek et al. 2010.

[Jonger]

100% agree. The Bipolar see-saw effect is quite evident in the Antarctic and Arctic detrended temperature records.

 

bipolar seesaw.png

 

From Chylek et al. 2010.

 

Interesting how that blue line looks like the raw data pre-1998 GISS global temps chart. 

[Snow_Miser]

Interesting how that blue line looks like the raw data pre-1998 GISS global temps chart. 

 

Could just be a coincidence. The light blue line is an 11 year average of detrended Arctic temperatures, whereas the darker blue line is a 17 year average of detrended Arctic temperatures.

 

If the above image is not blindingly obvious that Arctic Sea Ice will recover at least partially over the next 20-30 years, then I don't know what is.

[Jonger]

Could just be a coincidence. The light blue line is an 11 year average of detrended Arctic temperatures, whereas the darker blue line is a 17 year average of detrended Arctic temperatures.

 

If the above image is not blindingly obvious that Arctic Sea Ice will recover partially over the next 20-30 years, then I don't know what is.

 

I'm sure skeptical science has a full rebuttal of that graph.

[Snow_Miser]

I'm sure skeptical science has a full rebuttal of that graph.

 

Actually, to my knowledge, they don't talk about the 20th Century Bipolar Seesaw effect documented in the above paper. I don't think we see a full recovery with Arctic Sea Ice to the late-1970s, but I could definitely see us recover to levels like the early-mid 1990s.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Actually, to my knowledge, they don't talk about the 20th Century Bipolar Seesaw effect documented in the above paper. I don't think we see a full recovery with Arctic Sea Ice to the late-1970s, but I could definitely see us recover to levels like the early-mid 1990s.

 

Where do we stand on the current AMO? Hopefully, we have "rounded the corner"

[Snow_Miser]

Where do we stand on the current AMO? Hopefully, we have "rounded the corner"

 

We're at the peak right now. I think that 2012 was the low point for the ice. We can see that in 1930, we had similar Arctic detrended temperatures to 2002-2003. After about a decade, right around 1940 or so, the peak was met. I think, based off of the past, we've already reached the peak, and are going to go downhill from here over the next 20-30 years. The cycle is undeniable.

[Snow_Miser]

 

The Antarctic SIA continues to set records.

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

Might be approaching record high levels of sea ice by the end of this summer in the Antarctic. Earth's feedback processes are much more powerful than many folks realize, and even if the sea ice increase is due to a warming globe (as some scientists postulate via stronger land-sea winds and fresh water freezing), it's likely that this negative feedback will continue w/ a warmer temps. However, I think the primary drivers here are the oceans, and it's not a coincidence that when the Arctic was at its height, the Antarctic sea ice was quite low, and vice versa. A colder world w/ -PDO/-ENSO/-AMO dominant state implies less fresh water release from continental Antarctic glaciers, and thus higher salinity levels surrounding Antarctica. Therefore, more energy is required to freeze and expand sea ice when Antarctica is colder. Additionally, oceans surrounding Antarctica make it more difficult to decrease SST's offshore, while continents surround the Arctic, so it benefits with colder global temps. The physics of the north pole and south pole melting/freezing are completely different. A colder global climate helps the Arctic ice sea increase while a warmer climate aids in the Antarctica sea ice increase. It's a perfect balance. Once the AMO turns colder, we'll see things begin to reverse. We've already past the worst (lowest) point of Arctic sea ice loss, and have seen a slight upward trend recently.

These statements contradict the ideas of a large percentage of the scientific community. In my understanding, we will never see a return to a 20th century Arctic or Antarctica, what you are doing is simply running with decadal data (occuring in a different climate regime) and using it to make a trend far in advance. Consider the Size of Antarctica, the ice is simply not going to melt away in a century. The average yearly sea ice extent has been expanding since the world has warmed and it continues. The usage of the -AMO as a strawman for global recovery needs to stop because the oceans are in fact warming due to AGW, you will discover that 2013 is a simply a annual variation of the long-term trend, especially in the arctic.

[Jonger]

Looking good. The added sea ice is probably going to contribute to a good net annual gain of ice. Should offset the small increase in GIS runoff.

The sea ice should keep the coastal areas colder longer into the SH summer.

[Geos]

Ice extent getting way up there. Just a hair above 2010 levels.

 

 

[Jonger]

Antarctic ice extent highest on record for this day of the year.

[Jonger]

And then we get nonsense like this:

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/antarctic-sea-ice-melts-seaweed-could-smother-seafloor-6C10848682

 

As Antarctic sea ice melts, seaweed could smother seafloor

[AvantHiatus]

The sea ice concentration is limited and sparse along the ocean boundary region and in some sporadic areas near the Antarctic Ice Sheet. These regions will melt away in days during the Southern Hemisphere summer and Antarctica continues to dump fresh water into the Southern Ocean through surface melt.

 

[Jonger]

The sea ice concentration is limited and sparse along the ocean boundary region and in some sporadic areas near the Antarctic Ice Sheet. These regions will melt away in days during the Southern Hemisphere summer and Antarctica continues to dump fresh water into the Southern Ocean through surface melt.

 

 

http://vimeo.com/46429608

 

You are repeating alarmist lies. Minimum and maximum sea ice is a good indicator of climate around and on Antarctica.

[bluewave]

Preceding right on schedule...

 

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/09/does-the-expanding-antarctic-sea-ice-disprove-global-warming/

 

 

Interestingly, climate models have generally predicted that Antarctic sea ice won’t change much in the coming decades, before eventually losing mass.

Only recently have scientists begun to understand why, in part due to research by Judith Curry among other. In a 2010 paper (see abstract) in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Curry said the answer is tied up in a combination of natural variability and global warming. (By the way, skeptics, before you dismiss Curry you’d do well to understand that she’s a harsh critic of the IPCC.)

Here’s a deeper explanation of what she found, based upon an interview I conducted with her:

So give me a non-sound bite answer.

Sea ice can melt from both above and below, either heating from the ocean below or the atmosphere above. In the case of the Arctic most of the melting is driven from the warmer atmosphere above. In the Antarctic most of the melting has been driven from the ocean below. What our study has identified is that there’s been increased precipitation over the last few decades that has freshened the upper ocean, which makes it more stable so the heat below doesn’t make it up to the sea ice to melt it.

Freshens the upper ocean?

It decreases the saltiness. When you have a fresh layer on top that’s less dense it acts as a barrier to prevent the mixing of warmer water from below. It insulates the ice to some extent. We’ve also seen a big role of natural variability, over the past 30 years or so the dominant climate signal has been from the Antarctic Oscillation rather than from global warming. The net effect of all this has been an increase in precipitation, mostly snow. This diminishes the melting both from below and above. It stops the melting from above because snow has a higher albedo and reflects more sunlight.

At some point does this result in a net loss of ice rather than gains?

What happens in the 21st century projections is that the global warming signal begins to dominate. We still have the freshening of the upper ocean, but the upper ocean is getting warmer because of a warmer atmosphere. And the precipitation starts to fall more as rain than snow. Rain falling on ice speeds the melting from above.

The bottom line is that scientists generally have predicted that the Antarctic sea ice will not begin substantially melting until the second half of this century.

[Geos]

 

And then we get nonsense like this:

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/antarctic-sea-ice-melts-seaweed-could-smother-seafloor-6C10848682

 

As Antarctic sea ice melts, seaweed could smother seafloor

 

 

Lol, that's funny. I guess those scientists haven't noticed the record levels of sea ice this year and recent years!

[Jonger]

Well, those models show the antarctic sea ice to start decreasing soon, I'll be following that closely.

 

[Snow_Miser]

Well, those models show the antarctic sea ice to start decreasing soon, I'll be following that closely.

 

 

The CMIP5 models simulated a decrease with the GHG forcing and the stratospheric ozone forcing alone over the last 30 or so years. Clearly, they are not simulating the trends well.

[LithiaWx]

Preceding right on schedule...

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/09/does-the-expanding-antarctic-sea-ice-disprove-global-warming/

Interestingly, climate models have generally predicted that Antarctic sea ice won’t change much in the coming decades, before eventually losing mass.

Only recently have scientists begun to understand why, in part due to research by Judith Curry among other. In a 2010 paper (see abstract) in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Curry said the answer is tied up in a combination of natural variability and global warming. (By the way, skeptics, before you dismiss Curry you’d do well to understand that she’s a harsh critic of the IPCC.)

Here’s a deeper explanation of what she found, based upon an interview I conducted with her:

So give me a non-sound bite answer.

Sea ice can melt from both above and below, either heating from the ocean below or the atmosphere above. In the case of the Arctic most of the melting is driven from the warmer atmosphere above. In the Antarctic most of the melting has been driven from the ocean below. What our study has identified is that there’s been increased precipitation over the last few decades that has freshened the upper ocean, which makes it more stable so the heat below doesn’t make it up to the sea ice to melt it.

Freshens the upper ocean?

It decreases the saltiness. When you have a fresh layer on top that’s less dense it acts as a barrier to prevent the mixing of warmer water from below. It insulates the ice to some extent. We’ve also seen a big role of natural variability, over the past 30 years or so the dominant climate signal has been from the Antarctic Oscillation rather than from global warming. The net effect of all this has been an increase in precipitation, mostly snow. This diminishes the melting both from below and above. It stops the melting from above because snow has a higher albedo and reflects more sunlight.

At some point does this result in a net loss of ice rather than gains?

What happens in the 21st century projections is that the global warming signal begins to dominate. We still have the freshening of the upper ocean, but the upper ocean is getting warmer because of a warmer atmosphere. And the precipitation starts to fall more as rain than snow. Rain falling on ice speeds the melting from above.

The bottom line is that scientists generally have predicted that the Antarctic sea ice will not begin substantially melting until the second half of this century.

Remains to be seen but it is very likely that this is true and we will soon see major mass losses and shrinking sea ice.

It seems each side has a theory of why things are happening and both will take many years to find who is right. The rebound this year in the arctic is attributed to variability but the trend should continue down. The other side cites AMO.

On the Antarctic side you have this increasing ice but a valid theory of why it may be happening that in the end will end to losses.

FWIW I believe AGW is a big problem and we will continue to see arctic loses with a general downward trend. The Antarctic will also in the end see losses if CO2 emissions go unchecked.

[Geos]

After a brief dip the sea ice area is heading back up.

 

 

[Geos]

Antarctic sea ice area up to 15.53675 million km^2.

Day 223

From C.T.

[Jonger]

It's probably just an illusion, but it sure looks like the sea ice is getting close to the tip of south America.

 

[Geos]

It's probably just an illusion, but it sure looks like the sea ice is getting close to the tip of south America.

 

 

 

Nice map! From what I can estimate the distance from the closest ice to South America is about 300 miles. You got a bit of ice coverage sneaking north of 60°S and I based the measurement off that marker.

 

Pretty steep gradient through the Drake Passage.

 

[Coach McGuirk]

Looks like Antarctica sea ice is actually expanding.  You won't hear that on the news. 

[PhillipS]

Looks like Antarctica sea ice is actually expanding.  You won't hear that on the news. 

 

I've heard it on the news for several years.  The increase (about 0.1% / decade) is solid corroboration of the climate science prediction that Antarctic sea ice will slowly increase until mid-century and then begin to decrease.  Warming causing an increase in sea ice may be counter intuitive but the warming has brought increased winds (more polynyas) and increased precipitation (less saline surface waters), both of which increase sea ice production. Two papers worth reading on Antarctic sea ice are Zhang 2007 and Turner 2009.

[tacoman25]

I've heard it on the news for several years.  The increase (about 0.1% / decade) is solid corroboration of the climate science prediction that Antarctic sea ice will slowly increase until mid-century and then begin to decrease.  Warming causing an increase in sea ice may be counter intuitive but the warming has brought increased winds (more polynyas) and increased precipitation (less saline surface waters), both of which increase sea ice production. Two papers worth reading on Antarctic sea ice are Zhang 2007 and Turner 2009.

 

Made after the fact...