Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

[Snow_Miser]

The Antarctic Sea Ice is now over two standard deviations above normal.

[PhillipS]

The Antarctic Sea Ice is now over two standard deviations above normal.

NSIDC has a good summary of the similarities and differences between sea ice in the arctic and antarctic. [source] Here is the long-term antarctic SIE record:

I don't know why they haven't updated it to 2012. But CT does have the full long term antarctic SIA and SIA anomaly records:

It has certainly been a cold winter in Antarctica and a record SIA is possible, but I don't see any acceleration to the slow growth trend that has been commented on before.

[ORH_wxman]

NSIDC has a good summary of the similarities and differences between sea ice in the arctic and antarctic. [source] Here is the long-term antarctic SIE record:

I don't know why they haven't updated it to 2012. But CT does have the full long term antarctic SIA and SIA anomaly records:

It has certainly been a cold winter in Antarctica and a record SIA is possible, but I don't see any acceleration to the slow growth trend that has been commented on before.

I do not either.

I believe the increased antarctic sea ice if because of the southern ocean cooling. I t appears there was a slight acceleration since 2000, but nothing like the arctic sea ice decrease.

[ORH_wxman]

Friv, read the Zwally abstract about antarctica....it disagrees with GRACE and the other empirical obs do to. Hopefully the Zwally results will be peer reviewed soon...but it casts plenty of doubt on the GRACE results which had a wide enough margin of error to say that Antarctica could be gaining mass even though their "middle ground" was for it to be losing mass. But clearly there are problems with this result.

http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120013495_2012013235.pdf

[ineedsnow]

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.89606

[The_Global_Warmer]

Friv, read the Zwally abstract about antarctica....it disagrees with GRACE and the other empirical obs do to. Hopefully the Zwally results will be peer reviewed soon...but it casts plenty of doubt on the GRACE results which had a wide enough margin of error to say that Antarctica could be gaining mass even though their "middle ground" was for it to be losing mass. But clearly there are problems with this result.

http://ntrs.nasa.gov..._2012013235.pdf

The paper clearly has data and points that counter the amount of ice grace says Antarctica lost. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

as far the heat transport into the Southern Pole region isn't stopped by the ocean but the ocean is going to absorb so much more of the solar radiation and heat from higher latitudes. Unlike in Canada or Russia where heat is pooled over land that shares much more with the atmosphere at large.

There is so little disruption of the cold air pool and regime that keeps it in place. The Northern Hemisphere is so much warmer because of the land. The colder air shoots outward over the North Atlantic and Pacific but around the land regions it quickly warms up. There are so many jump points for heat over land to be thrusted into the arctic ice area. In the Southern Hemisphere the closest land is at 50 South, then 32-40 South in Africa and Australia. I don't think there are very many feedback's down there like there is up here where so many factors contribute to the large positive swing we have seen that are physically impossible there.

[Jonger]

The paper clearly has data and points that counter the amount of ice grace says Antarctica lost. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

as far the heat transport into the Southern Pole region isn't stopped by the ocean but the ocean is going to absorb so much more of the solar radiation and heat from higher latitudes. Unlike in Canada or Russia where heat is pooled over land that shares much more with the atmosphere at large.

There is so little disruption of the cold air pool and regime that keeps it in place. The Northern Hemisphere is so much warmer because of the land. The colder air shoots outward over the North Atlantic and Pacific but around the land regions it quickly warms up. There are so many jump points for heat over land to be thrusted into the arctic ice area. In the Southern Hemisphere the closest land is at 50 South, then 32-40 South in Africa and Australia. I don't think there are very many feedback's down there like there is up here where so many factors contribute to the large positive swing we have seen that are physically impossible there.

I wonder if the temps are really that uniform down there.

[csnavywx]

It's certainly a more resilient system, but that shouldn't be taken to mean that it's any less vulnerable to rapid non-linear changes. Changes in the arctic system were quite slow up until perhaps several years ago.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's certainly a more resilient system, but that shouldn't be taken to mean that it's any less vulnerable to rapid non-linear changes. Changes in the arctic system were quite slow up until perhaps several years ago.

dirty soot, dust, ash in the ice if exposed thick enough over large enough regions would do that trick.

[Alpha5]

Closing in on the highest extent ever recorded....2007 holds the record. Funny how we set record highs and lows in 07 and we may do it again in 12

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

[Jonger]

Closing in on the highest extent ever recorded....2007 holds the record. Funny how we set record highs and lows in 07 and we may do it again in 12

http://arctic.atmos....nteractive.html

I'm sure the fact that the arctic and antarctic are completely opposite means nothing.

/sarcasm

[forkyfork]

http://www.skeptical...gaining-ice.htm

"One must also be careful how you interpret trends in Antarctic sea ice. Currently this ice is increasing and has been for years but is this the smoking gun against climate change? Not quite. Antarctic sea ice is gaining because of many different reasons but the most accepted recent explanations are listed below:

i) Ozone levels over Antarctica have dropped causing stratospheric cooling and increasing winds which lead to more areas of open water that can be frozen (Gillet 2003, Thompson 2002, Turner 2009).

and

ii) The Southern Ocean is freshening because of increased rain, glacial run-off and snowfall. This changes the composition of the different layers in the ocean there causing less mixing between warm and cold layers and thus less melted sea ice (Zhang 2007)."

[tacoman25]

http://www.skeptical...gaining-ice.htm

"One must also be careful how you interpret trends in Antarctic sea ice. Currently this ice is increasing and has been for years but is this the smoking gun against climate change? Not quite. Antarctic sea ice is gaining because of many different reasons but the most accepted recent explanations are listed below:

i) Ozone levels over Antarctica have dropped causing stratospheric cooling and increasing winds which lead to more areas of open water that can be frozen (Gillet 2003, Thompson 2002, Turner 2009).

and

ii) The Southern Ocean is freshening because of increased rain, glacial run-off and snowfall. This changes the composition of the different layers in the ocean there causing less mixing between warm and cold layers and thus less melted sea ice (Zhang 2007)."

Yup.

And one must also be careful on how you interpret trends in Arctic ice.

[forkyfork]

Yup.

And one must also be careful on how you interpret trends in Arctic ice.

because?

[GaWx]

http://www.skeptical...gaining-ice.htm

"One must also be careful how you interpret trends in Antarctic sea ice. Currently this ice is increasing and has been for years but is this the smoking gun against climate change? Not quite. Antarctic sea ice is gaining because of many different reasons but the most accepted recent explanations are listed below:

i) Ozone levels over Antarctica have dropped causing stratospheric cooling and increasing winds which lead to more areas of open water that can be frozen (Gillet 2003, Thompson 2002, Turner 2009).

and

ii) The Southern Ocean is freshening because of increased rain, glacial run-off and snowfall. This changes the composition of the different layers in the ocean there causing less mixing between warm and cold layers and thus less melted sea ice (Zhang 2007)."

Let's assume for the sake of this discussion that the above reasons are what has caused the increased Antarctic sea ice (I have no way to know for sure whether it is that, cooling down there, or something else.) Wouldn't that mean that this is a way for the Earth to naturally fight back the warming? With more ice down there, doesn't that later help cool things in the S Hem. via increase albedo and other feedbacks? If so, might that also start to occur in the N. Hem. at some point? If so, would that possibly prevent runaway N. Hem. warming due to anthropogenic forcing?

[Jonger]

So:

Arctic 2012 record min extent

Antarctic 2012 record max extent (almost)

Yup.

[nflwxman]

So:

Arctic 2012 record min extent

Antarctic 2012 record max extent (almost)

Yup.

For the purposes of large scale sea level changes and other climate change related phenomenon, it's probably more important to look at Antarctic sea ice volume.

[ORH_wxman]

For the purposes of large scale sea level changes and other climate change related phenomenon, it's probably more important to look at Antarctic sea ice volume.

Sea ice doesn't affect sea level in a non-negligible manner.

[Jonger]

Sea ice doesn't affect sea level in a non-negligible manner.

Exactly. Antarctica is experiencing the direct opposite of the arctic.

No possible way is this a pattern.

[forkyfork]

So:

Arctic 2012 record min extent

Antarctic 2012 record max extent (almost)

Yup.

there's an accelerating downward trend in NH sea ice and the recent record is well below the last. you can't say the same for the SH positive anomalies

[nflwxman]

Exactly. Antarctica is experiencing the direct opposite of the arctic.

No possible way is this a pattern.

Is there any other periods of time that exhibit the same " ice extent difference" between the two hemispheres? I'm not trying to take an opposing point of view. I'm just not sure there is any real evidence they are connected. The trend in the northern hemisphere is much sharper and more defined in terms of extent than the southern. Perhaps there is an underlying connection?

[tacoman25]

because?

Because both the Arctic and Antarctic are affected by influences including, and outside of AGW. It's important to keep that balanced viewpoint when analyzing what's happening at both poles.

Or would you recommend only being careful when looking at the Antarctic?

[Alpha5]

there's an accelerating downward trend in NH sea ice and the recent record is well below the last. you can't say the same for the SH positive anomalies

Not arguing that point at all. The NH anomalies are much larger than the SH ones at this point. That being said because of the nature of the NH sea ice, its much more susceptible to large scale swings because theres no continent to anchor everything down. Either way, its still impressive that SH extent has climbed this high.

[Jonger]

Not arguing that point at all. The NH anomalies are much larger than the SH ones at this point. That being said because of the nature of the NH sea ice, its much more susceptible to large scale swings because theres no continent to anchor everything down. Either way, its still impressive that SH extent has climbed this high.

The NH polar ice is almost insignificant volume wise compared to the SH polar ice volume. I'm not referring to albedo or value either, just shear volume of ice.

Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2

[The_Global_Warmer]

The NH polar ice is almost insignificant volume wise compared to the SH polar ice volume. I'm not referring to albedo or value either, just shear volume of ice.

Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2

Is that so?

Where did you come up with that?

You might want to run over where you came up with that again

[The_Global_Warmer]

I'm sure the fact that the arctic and antarctic are completely opposite means nothing.

/sarcasm

They are not completely opposite.

Your not even comparing max and min.

do you even know how thick this extra ice gained is?

How much ocean profiles of salinity or upper layer temperatuere has to change for this change?

[Snow_Miser]

http://www.skeptical...gaining-ice.htm

"One must also be careful how you interpret trends in Antarctic sea ice. Currently this ice is increasing and has been for years but is this the smoking gun against climate change? Not quite. Antarctic sea ice is gaining because of many different reasons but the most accepted recent explanations are listed below:

i) Ozone levels over Antarctica have dropped causing stratospheric cooling and increasing winds which lead to more areas of open water that can be frozen (Gillet 2003, Thompson 2002, Turner 2009).

and

ii) The Southern Ocean is freshening because of increased rain, glacial run-off and snowfall. This changes the composition of the different layers in the ocean there causing less mixing between warm and cold layers and thus less melted sea ice (Zhang 2007)."

Where did anyone say that the increase in Antarctic Sea Ice means that Global Warming is false?

The ozone theory creating more sea ice in the antarctic doesn't really hold much water. Ozone has increased in recent years and sea ice has still increased, falsifying this hypothesis with direct observational evidence.

In addition, ice and snow have been increasing in Antarctica, so the second hypothesis doesn't make much sense either.

There definitely could be some freshening of the Southern Ocean from increased precipitation, but the skeptical science blog post misses the most obvious answer: it's because the southern ocean is losing heat.

[nflwxman]

Where did anyone say that the increase in Antarctic Sea Ice means that Global Warming is false?

The ozone theory creating more sea ice in the antarctic doesn't really hold much water. Ozone has increased in recent years and sea ice has still increased, falsifying this hypothesis with direct observational evidence.

In addition, ice and snow have been increasing in Antarctica, so the second hypothesis doesn't make much sense either.

There definitely could be some freshening of the Southern Ocean from increased precipitation, but the skeptical science blog post misses the most obvious answer: it's because the southern ocean is losing heat.

Do you have a source suggesting the southern ocean is losing heat?

[Jonger]

They are not completely opposite.

Your not even comparing max and min.

do you even know how thick this extra ice gained is?

How much ocean profiles of salinity or upper layer temperatuere has to change for this change?

You are ridiculous. I'm obviously comparing max and min as of today.

This is a forum for amateurs and professionals to discuss weather, some of us have a family and don't have the luxury to post 10,000 word multicolored replys 10 times a day. If you want to chew up my post, have at it.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/andrews/antarctica-site-posts-near-record-cold/75695

[Snow_Miser]

Do you have a source suggesting the southern ocean is losing heat?

http://www.agu.org/p...2GL052290.shtml

The Southern Ocean is a key component of the global climate system: insulating the Antarctic polar region from the subtropics, transferring climate signals throughout the world's oceans and forming the southern component of the global overturning circulation. However, the air-sea fluxes that drive these processes are severely under-observed due to the harsh and remote location. This paucity of reference observations has resulted in large uncertainties in ship-based, numerical weather prediction, satellite and derived flux products. Here, we report observations from the Southern Ocean Flux Station (SOFS); the first successful air-sea flux mooring deployment in this ocean. The mooring was deployed at 47°S, 142°E for March 2010 to March 2011 and returned measurements of near surface meteorological variables and radiative components of the heat exchange. These observations enable the first accurate quantification of the annual cycle of net air-sea heat exchange and wind stress from a Southern Ocean location. They reveal a high degree of variability in the net heat flux with extreme turbulent heat loss events, reaching −470 Wm⁻² in the daily mean, associated with cold air flowing from higher southern latitudes. The observed annual mean net air-sea heat flux is a small net ocean heat loss of −10 Wm⁻², with seasonal extrema of 139 Wm⁻² in January and −79 Wm⁻² in July. The novel observations made with the SOFS mooring provide a key point of reference for addressing the high level of uncertainty that currently exists in Southern Ocean air-sea flux datasets.

These are preliminary yearly measurements, and should be taken with a grain of salt, though it does confirm that the Southern Ocean is losing heat, since heat content is not wildly impacted by oscillations like ENSO which greatly impact the surface temperatures. This also confirms Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures also showing a decline.