ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 tomorrow looks fun now wasnt expecting a watch but I guess it could still be downgraded to an advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 tomorrow looks fun now wasnt expecting a watch but I guess it could still be downgraded to an advisory Well, it may be used because of the leaf foliage and convective line of showers. LLJ continues to creep stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 LLJ actually strengthens over SNE. Pretty rare to have a High Wind Watch in September, but definitely the chance to mix down at times. when was the last time there was such a strong LLJ with sfc cape and almost no inversion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yawn, Just another breezy SHRN storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'm impressed by tomorrow. We could really rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 just looking at the 18z nam quick and it looks like the hww would actually verify I'm impressed by tomorrow. We could really rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 when was the last time there was such a strong LLJ with sfc cape and almost no inversion? very rare indeed, I cant think of one off hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 just looking at the 18z nam quick and it looks like the hww would actually verify Even a tiny inversion can bottle up a 75 knot LLJ so it's not a lock. Southerly LLJ events are very difficult to verify. We'll see what happens but I certainly am interested in this case (and I almost never bother getting excited about these events). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 when was the last time there was such a strong LLJ with sfc cape and almost no inversion? Tomorrow might feature best winds west with daytime heating and stronger LLJ there. It moves east and even intensifies a bit overnight, but you lose a few ticks at the surface. Part of me is a bit skeptical of high gradient winds with this because I don't recall anything like that ever this time of year....but then again..the data is there. We'll see, but I understand the thinking of putting up a HWW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Tomorrow might feature best winds west with daytime heating and stronger LLJ there. It moves east and even intensifies a bit overnight, but you lose a few ticks at the surface. Part of me is a bit skeptical of high gradient winds with this because I don't recall anything like that ever this time of year....but then again..the data is there. We'll see, but I understand the thinking of putting up a HWW. Yeah I sort of like Long Island/NYC for the best wind. Once the sun goes down we stabilize just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Man..things just keep getting better and better for damaging synoptic winds tomorrow. I'm hopeful we can tear down a substantial number of trees..But my fear is we'll wake up in the morning..and a nuisance wind advisory will be up instead of HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'm not sold on zero inversion, at least across southern New England. I think we'll see even some real weak inversions but as Ryan said even a weak one can prevent a quite a bit. Anyways though what is intriguing is there is 50 kt winds as low as 1500'...even lower than that...Kevin's chimney might get a defacing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yeah I sort of like Long Island/NYC for the best wind. Once the sun goes down we stabilize just a little bit. Yeah even interior areas could get strong gusts like in NJ or Hudson Valley. An interesting case and interesting storm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yeah even interior areas could get strong gusts like in NJ or Hudson Valley. An interesting case and interesting storm tomorrow. I'm pretty pumped. South winds always do more damage than strong NW winds ..esp since trees aren't used to gusts from that direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wiz calling for gusts for me over hurricane force lol Latest model data is even a bit more impressive with wind potential tomorrow...areas from 1000' and up will likely see sustained winds of 35-40 mph+ with gusts as high as 75-80 mph all throughout New England tomorrow...areas below 1000' could gust as high as 50-60 mph...especially if any showers/t'storms can transfer some of those stronger winds aloft down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Even a tiny inversion can bottle up a 75 knot LLJ so it's not a lock. Southerly LLJ events are very difficult to verify. We'll see what happens but I certainly am interested in this case (and I almost never bother getting excited about these events). the nam profiles need to verify for this to be a damaging event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wiz calling for gusts for me over hurricane force lol Latest model data is even a bit more impressive with wind potential tomorrow...areas from 1000' and up will likely see sustained winds of 35-40 mph+ with gusts as high as 75-80 mph all throughout New England tomorrow...areas below 1000' could gust as high as 50-60 mph...especially if any showers/t'storms can transfer some of those stronger winds aloft down. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 the nam profiles need to verify for this to be a damaging event Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Man..things just keep getting better and better for damaging synoptic winds tomorrow. I'm hopeful we can tear down a substantial number of trees..But my fear is we'll wake up in the morning..and a nuisance wind advisory will be up instead of HWW Looking forward to the posts of "meh" and gusts to 25-30mph tomorrow. I still have a hard time believing that stuff gets mixed down regardless. Something will happen to limit wind. Always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wiz calling for gusts for me over hurricane force lol Latest model data is even a bit more impressive with wind potential tomorrow...areas from 1000' and up will likely see sustained winds of 35-40 mph+ with gusts as high as 75-80 mph all throughout New England tomorrow...areas below 1000' could gust as high as 50-60 mph...especially if any showers/t'storms can transfer some of those stronger winds aloft down. Above 1500' that is absolutely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'm pretty pumped. South winds always do more damage than strong NW winds ..esp since trees aren't used to gusts from that direction I'm a little unsure of tomorrow. I guess it could, but in theory...I'd rather have this occur in the aftn without losing daytime heating. Even 2 degrees means a lot at the surface. Doesn't mean someone gets strong gusts from a heavy shower or storm..just speaking of non-convective winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Below 1000' not sure this will be a major damaging event but once you get above 1000' it's an entirely different ballgame. I'm more interested in the usual people that completely take everything about of context and assume they will be seeing whatever is said in their yard...already seeing several posts by people stating this. what a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Below 1000' not sure this will be a major damaging event but once you get above 1000' it's an entirely different ballgame. I'm more interested in the usual people that completely take everything about of context and assume they will be seeing whatever is said in their yard...already seeing several posts by people stating this. what a joke. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wiz calling for gusts for me over hurricane force lol Latest model data is even a bit more impressive with wind potential tomorrow...areas from 1000' and up will likely see sustained winds of 35-40 mph+ with gusts as high as 75-80 mph all throughout New England tomorrow...areas below 1000' could gust as high as 50-60 mph...especially if any showers/t'storms can transfer some of those stronger winds aloft down. Ballsy... its one thing for the models to show it or hint at it, but its another thing to actually have that happen. No way 1,000ft "likely" sees sustained winds of 40+ gusting to 80mph. That's more damage than a tropical storm direct hit. I'm skeptical if 80mph+ even verifies at the 4,000ft weather station. I've seen plenty of these on models where its showing 80-90kts at H85 turn out to be like 40-60mph at 4K feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 the sref bumped cape probabilities just a tiny bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wiz is having a meltdown before it even starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 :weenie: What's going to happen is anyone that lives below 1000' or closer to sea-level will complain b/c they only see gusts to maybe 30...40 and call bust and say all their stupid crap they usually do. It's above 1000' and up where the real wind and concern for wind damage should and will be. How much winds we see at the lower elevations will all depend on mixing and whether or not we have any weak inversions just above the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Of note, that's an impressive satellite signature over the deep south. Pretty cool how that low will phase tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 well im about 200 feet from the beach in branford,ct.im going to stick my davis tripod out tonight in a clear spot and just for fun, see what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 We've seen places like Blue Hills gust to 70+ with pretty much same wind profiles aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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