CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Several posts that were made towards the end of the event. More of the "bust" type posts and people shooting down an event just b/c nothing happened in their yard and then ridiculing forecasts. It's the same thing every single event, both winter and summer, and it's absolutely annoying and just takes alot of the fun out of tracking and discussing the event. Yeah you gotta ignore those people. Who cares what they say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yeah you gotta ignore those people. Who cares what they say? Yeah you're right. Not sure why I let it get to me so much. That event I thought was a ton of fun from a meteorological perspective....there was so much going on and we really weren't all that far away form having a much bigger event, especially with those low topped supercells. I still wonder why they didn't produce...not just tornadoes but the lack of wind damage was amazing too. I wonder if that inversion just above 700mb played a major factor there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wiz, stop having a soft skin...you busted on that event (well sort of)...and you will bust on a lot of others. I bust on winter events and i keep posting. It happens. I do not care how good you are at forecasting, you WILL bust, and bust badly too. You just pick yourself up and do it again...and hopefully learn from the last bust. That is key...learn from the bad ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yeah you're right. Not sure why I let it get to me so much. That event I thought was a ton of fun from a meteorological perspective....there was so much going on and we really weren't all that far away form having a much bigger event, especially with those low topped supercells. I still wonder why they didn't produce...not just tornadoes but the lack of wind damage was amazing too. I wonder if that inversion just above 700mb played a major factor there? There are a lot of posters here who are worthless. Unless they get a damaging severe storm in their backyard the event is a bust. Watching the radar last Saturday was quite impressive... OKX issued 8 tornado warnings I think! We talked about that potential for low topped supercells and it came to fruition. Weenies are weenies. At least in snowstorms everyone gets snow. The weenies during convection are about as annoying as they get with the IMBYism at a fever pitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 When was the last non-tropical September damaging wind event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wiz, stop having a soft skin...you busted on that event (well sort of)...and you will bust on a lot of others. I bust on winter events and i keep posting. It happens. I do not care how good you are at forecasting, you WILL bust, and bust badly too. You just pick yourself up and do it again...and hopefully learn from the last bust. That is key...learn from the bad ones. I know I messed that up pretty badly about the line doing more here...I was just too into the parameters we had in place and completely didn't pay attention to what the s/w was doing and how it was further NW than models had indicated...certainly something to start paying more attention towards in the future. There are a lot of posters here who are worthless. Unless they get a damaging severe storm in their backyard the event is a bust. Watching the radar last Saturday was quite impressive... OKX issued 8 tornado warnings I think! We talked about that potential for low topped supercells and it came to fruition. Weenies are weenies. At least in snowstorms everyone gets snow. The weenies during convection are about as annoying as they get with the IMBYism at a fever pitch. You would think more people on here would be more understanding when it comes to convection, especially given the knowledge of people here is higher than the public but I guess that isn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 When was the last non-tropical September damaging wind event? I am having a tough time believing now we have any chance of getting low 70's dews in here....perhaps the case will be different for coastal CT but it doesn't look good. Even looking at bufkit for BDL the NAM doesn't have a great deal of winds at the surface...at the most we see like 32 knots or so...that's decent but it's certainly not anything unprecedented. Perhaps with a soggy ground with rain that day a rotted tree will get blown over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Flash flooding could be a pretty big threat...I would think some of these rainfall rates will be pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The heaviest of the rain may never really make it far into CT of the models are right. Wind is my biggest concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'd just like to see a downpour. It has been a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Boston TV mets don't seem concerned about the winds. Decent rain producer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'd like to see some synoptic gusts 45-50mph..which models say is possible..esp in hills and at coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Some gusts over 40 possibly in some areas outside of any heavier showers. Some of that convection even if no thunder may bring stronger winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I don't see any issue from a synoptic end for convectively transferred winds in our portion of the slight risk. I don't see something like 2 weekends ago happening tomorrow with improper s/w positioning etc. The depth of the CAPE has my worry for limited updraft growth and generally more of a recipe for heavy rain with 30-50mph wind transfer instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I don't see any issue from a synoptic end for convectively transferred winds in our portion of the slight risk. I don't see something like 2 weekends ago happening tomorrow with improper s/w positioning etc. The depth of the CAPE has my worry for limited updraft growth and generally more of a recipe for heavy rain with 30-50mph wind transfer instead. Agreed. That's what I saw. Pretty good storm for September standards anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Agreed. That's what I saw. Pretty good storm for September standards anyways. I agree with that. These winds in the low levels are amazing and several SD above normal. Meanwhile, NC-VA-MD-DE-PA-S NJ look good for severe weather. Even there, I'd like to see better CAPE depths penetrate into MD / PA. Still, it is sufficent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Some gusts over 40 possibly in some areas outside of any heavier showers. Some of that convection even if no thunder may bring stronger winds down. So .. over or under my peak gust call of 44mph? I like where I stand for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Going to be rocking and rolling tomorrow afternoon and evening at the summit restaurant. Will be fun working in mountain operations and see how it transpires tomorrow evening. I like 60kts at 925mb and 80kts at 850mb...right where I'll be tomorrow evening, a shade under 4000ft. From BTV... . Short and medium range models are in fairly good agreement in regards to storm total quantitative precipitation forecast with a widespread soaking 1-2 inch rainfall likely...and the potential for isolated 3 inch amounts on south facing slopes of Adirondacks and perhaps the southern greens. As mentioned...this system will also exhibit a strong low level jet of 50-60kts at 925mb and 70-80kt at 850mb." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 So .. over or under my peak gust call of 44mph? I like where I stand for now Well, unless you get a convective gust...BDL might not hit 44 for a gradient wind type deal. May be close though and it wouldn't shock me. Your hill could be quite windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Well, unless you get a convective gust...BDL might not hit 44 for a gradient wind type deal. May be close though and it wouldn't shock me. Your hill could be quite windy. I picture an acorn peltfest tomorrow. Good practice I guess for all the sleet that'll be pounding off my head this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I picture an acorn peltfest tomorrow. Good practice I guess for all the sleet that'll be pounding off my head this winter. LOL, well El Ninos luckily aren't a pelt fest for you. At least usually they aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Happy birthday Ryan.. hard to believe he's 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 For the lower elevations below 2000ft, it's going to depend on whether we can get some strong wind fields in ahead of the rain. Once it starts pouring it may be difficult to mix those down unless there's some convective element in the rain shield. Seen this too often where it stabilizes quickly in the rain and all we get is a bunch of "meh" posts on here and ASOS are 10G17 type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 For the lower elevations below 2000ft, it's going to depend on whether we can get some strong wind fields in ahead of the rain. Once it starts pouring it may be difficult to mix those down unless there's some convective element in the rain shield. Seen this too often where it stabilizes quickly in the rain and all we get is a bunch of "meh" posts on here and ASOS are 10G17 type stuff. Yep, that's true. Regardless, it will be ripping on the mtn sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 For the lower elevations below 2000ft, it's going to depend on whether we can get some strong wind fields in ahead of the rain. Once it starts pouring it may be difficult to mix those down unless there's some convective element in the rain shield. Seen this too often where it stabilizes quickly in the rain and all we get is a bunch of "meh" posts on here and ASOS are 10G17 type stuff. best winds will probably be ahead of the main line of rain as we saw last saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Boston TV mets don't seem concerned about the winds. Decent rain producer We taking regional wide big rains? Which areas are being looked at for heaviest rains at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 We taking regional wide big rains? Which areas are being looked at for heaviest rains at this time? Right around Orange/Monroe NY..That area seems like ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yep, that's true. Regardless, it will be ripping on the mtn sides. Yeah, the grids are showing the strong winds above 2500ft...I like when the point 'n click is showing "strong and damaging winds." Tuesday Rain, mainly after noon. High near 57. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 26 to 36 mph increasing to 55 to 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain. Low around 40. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 60 to 70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Right around Orange/Monroe NY..That area seems like ground zero. Good for them. I'm still in Brooklyn, CT right now. BTW, my final project here at my company was designing the concession pavillion for Cross Farms. Hopefully that thing will get built this fall, and it gets built correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Good for them. I'm still in Brooklyn, CT right now. BTW, my final project here at my company was designing the concession pavillion for Cross Farms. Hopefully that thing will get built this fall, and it gets built correctly. I'm there several times per week with my daughters travel soccer team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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