CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 I see that threat in CT and points SW as well. Conditional like you said. I guess I'm referring to the KFS derecho. Looks like more forced squall line with minimal instability. LLJ is strong though...maybe a few weenie gusts. I see very little widespread wind potential. Isolated downbursts in mini/low topped supercells during the day Tuesday. Radar will be fun to watch Tuesday if we can spike dew points into the low 70s and get some surface based instability. Shear is more impressive... will have to see if we can get some instability. Interesting synoptic wind threat too if the NAM is right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I see very little widespread wind potential. Isolated downbursts in mini/low topped supercells during the day Tuesday. Radar will be fun to watch Tuesday if we can spike dew points into the low 70s and get some surface based instability. Shear is more impressive... will have to see if we can get some instability. Interesting synoptic wind threat too if the NAM is right lol. Yeah looks similar in some ways to the NYC stuff last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Yeah looks similar in some ways to the NYC stuff last weekend. Looks like 0-1km shear is up and instability is down. SREFs are very meh on instability since they keep dew points low. If we can advect some 72-74F kind of tds in here watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I see very little widespread wind potential. Isolated downbursts in mini/low topped supercells during the day Tuesday. Radar will be fun to watch Tuesday if we can spike dew points into the low 70s and get some surface based instability. Shear is more impressive... will have to see if we can get some instability. Interesting synoptic wind threat too if the NAM is right lol. You say little wind threat then say interesting synoptic wind threat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 You say little wind threat then say interesting synoptic wind threat lol LOL it's too bad you don't know much meteorology. The wind threat from convection is quite low outside of any low topped/mini supercells. Your widespread damaging wind/derecho is just not going to happen. There is, however, the potential for a synoptic wind event if the LLJ overperforms and we are able to keep the boundary layer well mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 You say little wind threat then say interesting synoptic wind threat lol He means regarding winds induced by severe storms. Synoptic winds often have to do with pressure falls/isallobaric influences or strong winds near the sfc (in this case, at 850 mb and lower levels) being mixed down to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Yeah dewpoint advection is key. We are getting to the time of year where it gets harder to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Yeah dewpoint advection is key. We are getting to the time of year where it gets harder to do this. Yup... the clock is ticking for these kinds of events. There is some disagreement on just how much low level theta-e we can build in here. This is probably worth watching the most over the next 24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Hopefully the euro and ensembles are right and some areas get an SOS this week. I think though the srfc trough might be a little east of what the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 My wind threat had always been from synoptic winds not convection. It's too bad your reading comprehension is off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 My wind threat had always been from synoptic winds not convection. It's too bad your reading comprehension is off What happened to the derecho? And if you were talking about synoptic winds my apologies. Still not a lock that we'll get 40 mph+ gusts but it's definitely a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 My wind threat had always been from synoptic winds not convection. It's too bad your reading comprehension is off I thought you said convective gusts would yield 44mph at BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I thought you said convective gusts would yield 44mph at BDL? I said synoptic..not convective You and Scooter took the way under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 I thought you said convective gusts would yield 44mph at BDL? I didn't seem to recall that distinction in his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I didn't seem to recall that distinction in his post. I don't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Decent winds already showing up in the point 'n click forecasts up here above 2,000ft. The zone forecast product has winds in the valley up to 40mph on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Above 2,000ft its winds of 50-75mph...tropical storm force winds. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Windy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 47 mph. Tuesday: Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 63. Windy, with a south wind 26 to 31 mph increasing to 34 to 39 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 46. Very windy, with a south wind 44 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 BTV is all over this wind/rain threat... the SE downslope regions will get destroyed with a low level jet like this. The west slopes of the Greens into the Champlain Valley will be your wind winner as usual if this works out. Not uncommon for them to be seeing 50-60mph gusts as the low level jet mixes down the mountain. THERE IS CONTINUED HIGH THREAT OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST DRAWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KNOTS. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT SWING INTO THE REGION. QPF A BIT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SUCH STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE USED MODEL BLEND...USING MAINLY HPC/GFS/ECMWF...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED OROGRAPHICALLY AS EVENT NEARS. NONETHELESS A SOAKING 1-2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN GREENS. AS FOR THE WINDS...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE PAID TO THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CHANNELED EFFECTS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I said synoptic..not convective You and Scooter took the way under You said it goes for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 You said it goes for both. I distinctly recall Sultan posting a Euro map with screaming south winds..and i said damaging synoptic winds..and you said we've never had that in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I distinctly recall Sultan posting a Euro map with screaming south winds..and i said damaging synoptic winds..and you said we've never had that in September. You said that gust to 44mph applies to both. And yes, a synoptic wind storm of 45-50mph is not common at all in September. It's happened before in a coastal storm. 1992 I believe. I could see gusts to 40 or so..but I wouldn't call it widespread damage aside from typical rotted crap falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 For Blizz's sake, lets hope for a solid down slope wind event with widespread damage. These can be doozies once we get a low level jet up around 70kts and the western slope communities can mix down the full extent of H85 winds. Probably not going to be this wild, but when I lived in Richmond/Bolton area we'd lose power every time a SSE flow came in. Everyone else would be precipitating heavily and we'd be downsloped with the sun out and winds gusting over 60mph, haha. December 1, 2010. "Winds eventually transitioned across the higher peaks of the Green Mountains and caused strong to damaging down slope winds in excess of hurricane force to the western slope communities and actually spread wind gusts approaching 55 mph into much of the Champlain Valley from just after daybreak to late afternoon. Some of the measured wind gusts included; 103 mph at the summit of Mount Mansfield, 90 mph in Cambridge (Lamoille county), 73 mph in Jeffersonville (Lamoille county) and Hanksville (Chittenden county), 66 mph in Nashville (Chittenden county), 62 mph in Sheldon Springs (Franklin county), 60 mph in Monkton (Addison county), 56 mph in Bolton (Chittenden county and Rutland Airport in Clarendon (Rutland county) with 53 mph at the NWS Burlington office at the airport in South Burlington (Chittenden county). Damaging winds approaching and exceeding hurricane force (>74 mph) produced structural damage of partially blown roofs, collapsed barns, collapsed car ports, some blown-in windows at the Jericho Elementary school, downed utility poles, etc. along the immediate downslope communities such as Bristol, Monkton, Hanksville, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge, Jeffersonville, Sheldon." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Powderfreak should stay at the summit Tuesday evening. LLJ will be ripping up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Powderfreak should stay at the summit Tuesday evening. LLJ will be ripping up there. I'll be up there on Tuesday till at least 5:30pm... wish I could stay later. We've got a special group coming up for a private evening Gondola ride and I'm getting a little nervous about the winds after 4pm Tuesday at 3,700ft. Especially since we are on the eastern side of the mountain and are fully exposed to winds coming from that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I have a feeling BTV will be issuing Wind Advisories or High Wind Warnings for the spine and downslope areas as they usually do with strong SSE low level jet events...that may put the hamper on any Gondola event on Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 No Wiz posts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 maybe hes mad the last event didnt work out No Wiz posts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 maybe hes mad the last event didnt work out Yeah he did have that mini meltdown after it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 My issue wasn't with the event but with several of the posts. I've been debating on whether or not to really involve myself much in here but it doesn't matter anyway b/c I'm working 11-6 Tuesday. I have been reading the thread and agree with everything has said...if we are able to sneak in some low 70's dews here into CT the potential will be rather interesting. As far as wind potential goes (both synoptically and convectively) I would watch out for some inversions that will be present throughout the column...winds in the BL are quite strong though so at least south coast (and higher elevations of course) could see some pretty strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 My issue wasn't with the event but with several of the posts. I've been debating on whether or not to really involve myself much in here but it doesn't matter anyway b/c I'm working 11-6 Tuesday. Which posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Which posts? Several posts that were made towards the end of the event. More of the "bust" type posts and people shooting down an event just b/c nothing happened in their yard and then ridiculing forecasts. It's the same thing every single event, both winter and summer, and it's absolutely annoying and just takes alot of the fun out of tracking and discussing the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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