weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I suppose those cells on the southern end of the line of heavy rain across eastern PA and NW NJ are what they are worried about. Yeah agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty low probs on the TOR...%40 on proba for 2 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty low probs on the TOR...%40 on proba for 2 or more Yeah those are about as low as you go for a watch, especially for severe wind probs. Usually we see those higher, even if the tornado probs are low. I like these probs, although I don't know how they calculate them, and don't really put much stock in them. But they're fun all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks like a lot of water will be coming through if no tornado. Not as exciting, but it is would it is. Already .70" and pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah those are about as low as you go for a watch, especially for severe wind probs. Usually we see those higher, even if the tornado probs are low. I like these probs, although I don't know how they calculate them, and don't really put much stock in them. But they're fun all the same. Yeah I've always wondered how they calculated those as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 0-1 km Helicity is 500/600 m2s2 and 0-3km Helicity 500-700 m2s2...not to shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 going by the meso discussion i thought it would have covered a bigger area Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 TORNADO WATCH 646 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-005-009-190300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0646.120918T1940Z-120919T0300Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD NEW HAVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 going by the meso discussion i thought it would have covered a bigger area Local offices probably asked for certain areas to be excluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The watch is probably for that line heading from DC - BWI and E PA. extrapolates through sw ct by 8-10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 going by the meso discussion i thought it would have covered a bigger area Yeah--the discussion referenced BOX, too. maybe they'll be getting a separate watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I feel like we've done this 10x thus summer complete with Wiz posting helicity isn't too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 BL is just a bit too stable...might be hard to get sfc based convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I should have made a bed with Kevin...I would have won. What exactly would you have won? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I feel like we've done this 10x thus summer complete with Wiz posting helicity isn't too shabby Well time to get back to work...be home 645ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 What exactly would you have won? Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 some of these gust are getting kind of impressive kind of surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Higher winds creeping lower and lower. 60kts at 3K', 50kts at 2K', 40kts at 1500'; If we keep trending like this, by this evening there might actually be some synoptic wind damage as you get off the valley floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 some of these gust are getting kind of impressive kind of surprised Agree...getting some good gusts here without any precip. to transfer winds down. Could be a fun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 41 knot just HPN 39 knots JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Lots of damage reports coming in now in CT and Mass via Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Starting to rip up here on the mtn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Windy in town today...not looking forward to the 7AM rush tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 1380 WMECO customers out, 1000 of them in Otis and Sandisfield. Other than that, meh on the Mass outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I am enjoying this much more than the Saturday der-meh-cho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 the MDT area makes more sense now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 im sure that will change later 1380 WMECO customers out, 1000 of them in Otis and Sandisfield. Other than that, meh on the Mass outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The watch is probably for that line heading from DC - BWI and E PA. extrapolates through sw ct by 8-10pm. 50-60mph here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 To your west / southwest the winds have been increasing. Sustained winds here near KSWF are in the mid 20s gusts are more frequent now and are in the mid 30s. REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 400 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA CITY SKY/WX TMP DPRH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 75 69 81 S13G25 29.72F LAGUARDIA APRT CLOUDY 76 70 82 S28G44 29.69F KENNEDY INTL PTSUNNY 76 69 79 S35G41 29.73F NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 79 68 69 S17G32 29.67F TETERBORO CLOUDY 77 69 76 S26G38 29.66F WHITE PLAINS CLOUDY 75 67 76 S22G47 29.71F HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DPRH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH LGT RAIN 73 70 88 S28G37 29.66F FOG MONTGOMERY CLOUDY 74 68 81 S20G31 29.60F POUGHKEEPSIE CLOUDY 76 67 73 S17G35 29.63F ALBANY LGT RAIN 70 67 90 S18G31 29.58F FOG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 when the heavier stuff gets here we could be in for a wild show tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 MRG's hair on fire? Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Fire by wind: RT @fireground360: LINES DOWN / EAST ST - CHESTERFIELD, MA / RP STATING GROUND ON FIRE + TAKING OFF RAPIDLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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