moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Up to .55" and raining heavily at the moment. Still hoping to get some good winds--I've got a ways to go. WMECO only has 145 folks out, more than half of which are in Erving/Gill/Montague (eastern Franklin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Peak gust of 25kts thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 What time does that heavy stuff move through CT? If its around 6 I'm taking the bus home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looking at the clouds those crazy winds don't look very high off the deck, how do we get those to mix down without sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 bdr gust to 40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 God, I HATE SPC mesoanalysis mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looking at the clouds those crazy winds don't look very high off the deck, how do we get those to mix down without sun? Steepening the llvl lapse rates by increasing llvl dews and theta-e or from convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Steepening the llvl lapse rates by increasing llvl dews and theta-e or from convection. Thanks wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Raegan gusted to 61 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Congrats everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 TOR for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 DCA where you can't measure snow for sh*t, but somehow pull wind out of your azz..lol. Sounds like 40-50 based on the other reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Raegan gusted to 61 mph my guesses are looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 my guesses are looking good Certainly are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Here come the TOR"S Mesoscale Discussion 1967 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...PARTS OF WRN/SRN VT...WRN MA...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 181926Z - 182000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. DISCUSSION...WEAK DESTABILIZATION AMIDST VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT QLCS STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..COHEN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 TORNADO WATCH COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 red box coming shortly for western NE and E NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Why? Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Why? Yeah I don't get it. Huge swath of red boxes to cover an isolated QLCS spinup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I should have made a bed with Kevin...I would have won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah I don't get it. Huge swath of red boxes to cover an isolated QLCS spinup? I don't know...I don't see it but maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I see 4,000 lol 40,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I don't know...I don't see it but maybe I'm wrong. The potential is rather low but they just may be worried given the shear in place and taking precaution I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The potential is rather low but they just may be worried given the shear in place and taking precaution I guess. I just don't see it. Maybe a few warnings, but even severe tstms inherently can cause tornadoes. We'll see I guess. Pretty unimpressive MDT risk in PA and NY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 red box coming shortly for western NE and E NY. We'll see. I'm still thinking "meh". But, good winds could still have some damage impacts on older trees. Up to .66" of rain thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I just don't see it. Maybe a few warnings, but even severe tstms inherently can cause tornadoes. We'll see I guess. Pretty unimpressive MDT risk in PA and NY right now. Yeah not much at all. I know there is some cape but I'm just not sure it's enough...weak updrafts will be sheared apart fairly quickly w/o enough thermodynamic support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah not much at all. I know there is some cape but I'm just not sure it's enough...weak updrafts will be sheared apart fairly quickly w/o enough thermodynamic support. I suppose those cells on the southern end of the line of heavy rain across eastern PA and NW NJ are what they are worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I should have made a bed with Kevin...I would have won. Not sure anyone wins when you bed with Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 For posterity: WWUS40 KWNS 181938 WWP6 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 WT 0646 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 0.5 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 300 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23045 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU6. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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