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Tuesday/Wednesday Storm


CT Rain

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Here come the TOR"S

Mesoscale Discussion 1967 < Previous MD mcd1967.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0226 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...PARTS OF WRN/SRN VT...WRN MA...WRN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 181926Z - 182000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...WEAK DESTABILIZATION AMIDST VERY STRONG

LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT QLCS STRUCTURES WITH A

THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A

TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

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I just don't see it. Maybe a few warnings, but even severe tstms inherently can cause tornadoes. We'll see I guess. Pretty unimpressive MDT risk in PA and NY right now.

Yeah not much at all. I know there is some cape but I'm just not sure it's enough...weak updrafts will be sheared apart fairly quickly w/o enough thermodynamic support.

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Yeah not much at all. I know there is some cape but I'm just not sure it's enough...weak updrafts will be sheared apart fairly quickly w/o enough thermodynamic support.

I suppose those cells on the southern end of the line of heavy rain across eastern PA and NW NJ are what they are worried about.

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For posterity:

WWUS40 KWNS 181938

WWP6

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0646

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0238 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

WT 0646

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 0.5

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 300

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23045

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU6.

$$

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