ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Still very tame at uconn, told my parents to get the genny ready at 1k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Won't bed shocked to see TOR for western Ct and maybe Ma in a few hours Duded..give up the severe risk...we have nothing in place for it. Just enjoy the damaging gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Duded..give up the severe risk...we have nothing in place for it. Just enjoy the damaging gusts There is a watch for south-central NY and looks like one coming for central/northern NY...if they are getting them western SNE will be considered as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Dr. Forbes also said its a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 There is a watch for south-central NY and looks like one coming for central/northern NY...if they are getting them western SNE will be considered as well. Let's try to even get a tornado warning within those boxes first. There is a weak mesocyclone north of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Max wind gusts in a lot of spots...esp central and east....could be between 8pm-2am tonight since that is when the peak of the LLJ comes through. For areas further SW like BDR, the peak will be later this afternoon into early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Dr. Forbes also said its a possibility. Is he being an uber with that torcon nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The only cool thing so far, is the LLJ interacting with the orographics just away from the CT coastline creating those showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Damage should begin over the next hour or 2 and steadily worsen thru the evening THREAT THIS EVNG WITH A NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE VICINITY OF SYRACUSE NY. WILL NEED TO WATCH PRE-FRONTAL ENERGY OVER ERN PA AND HOW IT EVOLVES AS THE SFC COLD FRNT BEGINS TO KICK EWD. IT IS THE BELIEF THAT THE TONGUE OF HIGH-THETAE MOIST AIR SURGING N ALONG THE WARM FRNT WILL ALSO USHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LOW SHOWALTER INDICES AND LOW SFC LIFTED INDEXES JUST BELOW THE CUSP OF SEVERE WX THRESHOLDS. WITH THE NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THERE IS THE BETTER CHC FOR HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PSBL ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN A VERY BRIEF PD OF TIME. ...WINDS... WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE RGN WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN /25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCALES/...BOTH AT THE SFC AND WITHIN VERTICAL WIND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. AN AVERAGE OF 40-45 KT WINDS /50-55 MPH/ IS PRESENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT H925 /2-3 KFT AGL/. THINKING REMAINS THE SAME...THE STRONGEST OF WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT AS SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY AGAINST HIGHER PRES INTO THE ATLANTIC. WHILE SOME VERTICAL MIX- DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT IS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY /A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT/...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE SFC WILL BE WITH RGNS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVNG PD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED TO SWEEP THRU THE RGN AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXPECTATION OF STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE HIGH WINDS REACH THE SFC WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH THE FASTER JET EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT PARENT WITH THE NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE /PRECIPITATION DRAG OF FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC/. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ABOVE 1 KFT WILL ALSO BE UNDER RISK FOR A GREATER POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Proof Kevin upslopes with south winds....and only south winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Let's try to even get a tornado warning within those boxes first. There is a weak mesocyclone north of PHL. Not saying we will see tornadoes...just talking about the issuance of a watch. I like watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Max wind gusts in a lot of spots...esp central and east....could be between 8pm-2am tonight since that is when the peak of the LLJ comes through. For areas further SW like BDR, the peak will be later this afternoon into early evening. Which is why areas farther east may struggle a bit I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Proof Kevin upslopes with south winds....and only south winds. LOL..1-2 inches of upslope rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Not saying we will see tornadoes...just talking about the issuance of a watch. I like watches. Watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 LOL..1-2 inches of upslope rain? If you look at OKX radar...you can see the two different processes creating rain. One is probably from a combo of mid level processes...frontogenesis...s/w moving in etc. That is more from NW CT and into POU. The other is from the LLJ down near the CT coast. You can see how the showers blossom east a bit. Probably no coincidence with the LLJ moving east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Which is why areas farther east may struggle a bit I think Yeah there isn't going to be much instability to tap into. The LLJ nearly reaches 70 knots over E MA, so if someone can get a heavier squall, won't be surprised to see some sfc gusts over 45 knots. But I'd be quite surprised if there was widespread gusts over those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 2,427 ui customers now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 A lot of the activity though is quick becoming linear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Gonna be a long night in Rhode Island... gusts haven't gone much over 30 at all so far and there is already several reports of electricity out.... including a section with 1001-5000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 First TOR of the day in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 My room here at work is on an inside "courtyard", so no direct winds, but it is def pretty squally out there Neat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds picking up a bit on Mt. Washington. Sitting at around 50 mph with a recent gust to 78. Nothing too extreme for up there yet. http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 12k w/o power in CT... FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Usually when I see the cloud deck ripping north like this there's tornadoes up in Kansas... Winds have been fairly steady but increasing since this morning, with the 40kt levels dropping to about 2000', 50kts at ~3000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 12k w/o power in CT... FTW I see 4,000 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds really starting to crank up now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I see 4,000 lol Yeah I just refreshed on phone and it's down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds picking up a bit on Mt. Washington. Sitting at around 50 mph with a recent gust to 78. Nothing too extreme for up there yet. http://www.mountwash.../conditions.php We shut down the Gondola at Stowe early... had a big insurance company coming up for a group event this evening but they changed at the last minute and came up early this morning. Once they got off the top we shut it down. I just got off the summit on the 4-wheeler and wow are the gusts ripping up there. Surprisingly it'll go almost dead calm for a minute or so and then you can hear the gust coming and it moves through like a freight train at 50-60mph for a minute before dying off again. Very interesting but man some of those gusts were impressive...flags are straight out. Highest so far at the weather station on Mansfield is 65mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 shows you what a joke the work that has been done since the 2 storms...a few 30-35 mph gusts and 2000 people are out...we're no better off than we were before Irene and the Oct blizzard. Don't disagree...but I kind of wonder if there's a lasting impact from those two storms at play here. Could weakened limbs that didn't come down last year be a threat? I only wonder because I've notice since I've been back in time just after one or two rain storms a few limbs down around town. Wasn't much wind to bring them down, so just makes me wonder if they were weakened last year and ready to come down the first times someone sneezes. Some fodder for the damage weenies anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 This would explain the impressive winds we were witnessing at 3-4K feet... 50-70kts up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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