Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Lol wait till Wiz sees CT back under the sig threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Peppered by acorns, buckshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Fantastic update explaining all the damage potential. This is what we used to get from Drag . Whoever wrote this great job and hopefully other mets at BOX will follow suit 1030 AM UPDATE... ...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... EVALUATING SATELLITE TRENDS AM CONCERNED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SFC BASED INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MONITORING SPC MESOANALYSIS AND MESORUC/HRRR CLOSELY FOR FCST EVOLUTION. FOR LOCALES AROUND THE CT VLY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...IT IS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION /SQUALLS AND DISCREET CELLULAR IN NATURE/ TO DEVELOP WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO RESULT IN SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES /WELL-DEFINED RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPH PROFILES WITH STRONG HELICITY VALUES AT BOTH 0-1 TO 0-3 KM/. AGAIN...THIS THREAT ARISES ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN IS ALLOWED TO PEEK AND INSTABILITY IS ALLOWED TO BUILD. ALREADY THERE IS SOME HINT AT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RVR VLY. OVERALL...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT PREVAILS...AND FOR THAT PLEASE SEE THE WINDS SECTION BELOW. A FINAL NOTE...SOME PRELIMINARY THINKING...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREV FCST DISCUSSION FOR THE EVNG PD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH A LOW INSTABILITY/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATER PROPENSITY OF PRODUCING A SHORT-FUSED DAMAGING WIND EVENT. WILL OUTLINE THE THREATS IN ...WINDS... ALREADY OBS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES ARE REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WITH HEAVIER RAINS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING H925 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS /50 MPH/. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO INTO THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME WITH SPEEDS AROUND 50 KTS /60 MPH/ ANTICIPATED. SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...THERE IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW-LVL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SFC. NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO NOTING THE AFOREMENTIONED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN DRAGGING FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...THE WIND ADVISORY PREVAILS WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS AS THE JET INCREASES ALOFT AT 2-3 KFT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGH WINDS COULD REACH THE SFC WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH THE ENCROACHING FASTER JET AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN BY AFOREMENTIONED PROCESSES...BUT FEEL SUCH GUSTS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MUCH OF THE GUSTS REMAINING WITHIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ABOVE 1 KFT WILL HAVE THE GREATER POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH WINDS. THE JET WILL ENHANCE INTO THE EVNG PD PARENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC COLD FRNT. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Working this morning outside it was swampy. Now with the wind picking up the air has cooled and become less muggy, if this means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wonder if we might see another deal sort of like that land phoon we had a month ago. Some of the meso models hint at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Cloud speed is wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wonder if we might see another deal sort of like that land phoon we had a month ago. Some of the meso models hint at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Trying to get breezier here I'm right down the street and seems fairly breezy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm right down the street and seems fairle breezy to me. From uconn ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 From uconn ? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yes Oh cool. Its definitely picking up now. Come sit in on a class lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 wind is increasing noticeably here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Cloud speed is wild! pretty wild-some good winds right off the deck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tornado watch now up to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Having trouble generating surface based/discrete convection ahead of the batch of main lift. May serve to limit tornado threat in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Trees are bending like crazy down here in westchester, a huge branch just came flying off into my neighbors yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Nice gusts coming up from the valley now. Mid 30 s I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Really need 40 knot gusts to start talking about damage and I haven't seen that yet on local METARs. We'll see what develops though through the afternoon as mixing depth improves a bit and LLJ increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 unplanned outages now effecting 1,512 UI customers, creeping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Here comes the damage Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan Strong winds will continue to pick up today. Gusts 50+ likely in the hills and on the shore. 40-50 mph elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 dad seeing Springsteen tonight at Giants stadium, should be interesting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Really need 40 knot gusts to start talking about damage and I haven't seen that yet on local METARs. We'll see what develops though through the afternoon as mixing depth improves a bit and LLJ increases. Yeah the jet doesn't really get cranking until a bit later. It strengthens and tightens considerably after 00z but we'll likely be relying on precip drag moreso by that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tree level winds are impressive, .30" in the bucket. 63/62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah the jet doesn't really get cranking until a bit later. It strengthens and tightens considerably after 00z but we'll likely be relying on precip drag moreso by that point Yeah that's why I sort of liked western areas and NYC metro for strongest winds. Mixing should be a bit better by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 wind picking up here with some filtered sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I really like the Delmarva right now with those temps in the low 80s..Anyone else a little surprised the mod risk was not included to the se NJ coast where some of the more notable surface instability resides? I suppose the better forcing and the peak 850 mb jet is forecast just to the west, but the nam has the best 925mb jet winds of 50-60kts peaking over coastal NJ 18z-00z.. over the better instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just got a report of sun breaking out in the CT valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just got a report of sun breaking out in the CT valley Let me guess...he's emaciated,, has a sparse, bad beard, and first name is Paul? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Let me guess...he's emaciated, has a sparse, bald head, and first name is Kevin? Oh you are in South Windsor working huh? No it was my dad lol. He's in Bloomfield and he said the sun is in and out. Totally socked in at UConn, quite dark actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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