HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Some breaks of sunshine working into Delmarva/S NJ and temps are up to 77-78...With dews around 70, 77-79 degrees should be sufficient for 800-1000j/kg sb CAPE..starting to see that show up over Cape May on latest mesoanalysis..That should be enough for some interesting weather here given the kinematics in place The breaks are definitely happening like what was being signaled on the NAM last night. If other clusters besides NC can appear to become threatening, I wouldn't be shocked at a moderate risk issuance this afternoon for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty impressed with the trends down by NJ...looks quite good there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds up here are a solid 40kts+ once you get 2500' off the ground. But it hasn't translated at all thus far. Coastal areas are getting windy... things are a bit warmer and humid down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Well you don't have much of a severe threat... most people never thought it was a NE CT deal. Here's the thing. Like last Saturday the minisupercells will be isolated... most of us see nothing. So weenies need to get their expectations in order. Well neither does HFD lol..I'm 15 minutes NE of HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Well neither does HFD lol..I'm 15 minutes NE of HFD Well most of us having been talking about S & W of HFD and that makes sense still. Don't worry you'll probably pull off a 40 knot gust on the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Well most of us having been talking about S & W of HFD and that makes sense still. Don't worry you'll probably pull off a 40 knot gust on the hill. It's got to be at least 55mph to be any real fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty impressed with the trends down by NJ...looks quite good there I like here better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Off to work...hopefully I can get a break from like 1:30-4...usually the case on Tuesday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I like here better Your area is in a pretty good spot as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 537 without power in tolland already according to cl&p outage map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 537 without power in tolland already according to cl&p outage map Sounds man made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Sounds man made. ctblizz cuts power lines for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 ctblizz cuts power lines for fun Wouldn't put it past him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The breaks are definitely happening like what was being signaled on the NAM last night. If other clusters besides NC can appear to become threatening, I wouldn't be shocked at a moderate risk issuance this afternoon for the Mid Atlantic. Agreed, and 12z nam continues that theme...looks really impressive in central/s NJ centered around 21z this aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I sense more deflated weenies for some, Need to maintain low expectations, That way the disappointment is not as traumatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The increased rainfall in PA-MD is from a vort max ahead of the main trough (positive differential CVA), theta-e/moisture advection and general low-mid level enhancement from wind/waa. I am not exactly sure how this will play into the building severe threat (will it matter or not). It is certainly giving the impression that eastern most areas of the Mid Atlantic have the highest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 my davis on ground level tripod gusted to 31 mph in the last hour short beach branford..some people already out there trying to tie up their boats as they bob up and down on the waves last minute.not saying it will be like irene in anyway,but its starting the same way leaves all over the porch and some twigs scattered about.it will be interesting to see what its like later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wind's picking up here. Tree movement far outpacing readings on the Davis which has only mustered 13mph. .16" in the bucket, 60/59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 wind is up all the sudden here...35mph? - funny on the comment about people tying up boats-how many tropical threats have we had over the years where the winds have in reality delivered less than today after a whole lot of hype? - Tornado watch for MD down to NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 wind is up all the sudden here...35mph? - funny on the comment about people tying up boats-how many tropical threats have we had over the years where the winds have in reality delivered less than today after a whole lot of hype? - Tornado watch for MD down to NC now. Yep i posted in the banter thread, we had two gusts that were impressive down here, which coincided with a brief shower. Heading down to take some pics this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 There are 0 outages in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 There are 0 outages in Tolland clandp had 537 30 minutes ago on there outage map, must have been an accident or misprint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wind's picking up here. Tree movement far outpacing readings on the Davis which has only mustered 13mph. .16" in the bucket, 60/59. I wish we had any rainfall here of consequence, more leaves have fallen here than raindrops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Trying to get breezier here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 It'll be interesting to see what happens of this... wind-wise that is. Typically you need some sort of destablizing lapse rates in the boundary layer for obvious reasons. CAA is the best way to do this, but getting deeper into a barotropic air mass where the sounding tends to be right at 9.8 per, can be very interesting provided the actual PGF is sufficiently large. Eikmen frictional effects still need to be overcome in the interior in those barotropic cases, but it is easier to do if 9.8 per, then if there is any inversion at all. Get up into elevations and you can see why some of these 3.5 hundred foot hill tops like the Monadnocks appear denuded of trees (ha). If there is any baroclinic tendency to the pre-frontal environment (i.e., a warm frontal slope) then you are not likely to verified as much wind in interior sections. I have seen as many as 12 isobars in a lead occlusion district of a frontal passage, in the past, verify 25kt winds in the interior. Meanwhile, it raging just above or on the marine contaminated coastal plain. Obviously a ribbon echo squall and/or lead convective elements in general could overcome, but outside those microscalar events, in terms of getting a sustained wider-spread wind event, they seem to underperform over the longer haul for much of these details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 So upgrade to moderate all the way to Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Ryan...how would you like to be on johnnycake hill today? Good spot i think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Not sure how prevalent this warm boundary is in the vertical soundings, but much for a few of the points I just made, I'd like to see the region get S of this analysis: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 So upgrade to moderate all the way to Albany? Interesting. The categorical upgrade is for wind but I'm not sure I see that outside of NJ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 dc is gusting to near 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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