Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 we are already gusting to 40mph at the coast http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&site=OKX&map.x=122&map.y=205 Yeah it'll be a windy day no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 73/65 overcast south winds gusting to 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I think this C VA-NC stuff becomes threatening as it moves eastward. Things becoming surface based appear likely ahead of it with good instability developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That's how I'm taking it. I suppose any heavier line segments overnight have the chance of bringing stronger winds down..but that is more of a nowcast deal. I couldn't tell you if that will occur right now. Nice day to be atop MQE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Nice day to be atop MQE Yeah should be rocking up there later on and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Should be decent weather into the weekend after this leaves. Looks ok, Here, Wednesday and Thursday night look chilly up here, We may see some showers on Friday into Saturday as we are sandwiched between today's front offshore and another moving in from the west late in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Definitely a slow start here, trees aren't even moving. Looks like the station at the same exact elevation as my house down the road from it gusted to 10 mph so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 I think this C VA-NC stuff becomes threatening as it moves eastward. Things becoming surface based appear likely ahead of it with good instability developing. Yeah I agree. I feel better about S/C NJ through DE and E MD for that stuff. Unsure what develops here. I do think there's a severe threat for my coastal areas but it's a bit more conditional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 some brightening off to the south here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Off to a sunny start here, Calm winds, But will be going downhill later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 September? No matter what I am impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 73/65 overcast south winds gusting to 26 Definitely a slow start here, trees aren't even moving. Looks like the station at the same exact elevation as my house down the road from it gusted to 10 mph so far. Are you in Storrs? I hope you're home to track things coming north in the western areas. 56/55, calm. .07" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 September? No matter what I am impressed. Looks rather sultanish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah I agree. I feel better about S/C NJ through DE and E MD for that stuff. Unsure what develops here. I do think there's a severe threat for my coastal areas but it's a bit more conditional. I am interested to see how the rainfall and newly developed convection (presumably the squall) interact over the northern Mid Atlantic. I agree about your coastal areas and I wouldn't rule out western CT either this evening with the squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 I am interested to see how the rainfall and newly developed convection (presumably the squall) interact over the northern Mid Atlantic. I agree about your coastal areas and I wouldn't rule out western CT either this evening with the squall. Yeah I've been outlining the area SW of HFD for severe potential. If the tornado threat is meh by 20z I'll probably take a satellite truck down to the beach for some wind live shots... if severe is a possibility I'll stay in studio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 SPC really shaved back the TOR chances to the SW of CT..Sorry Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 SPC really shaved back the TOR chances to the SW of CT..Sorry Wiz They did? No they didn't lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 They did? No they didn't lol yes they shrunk the 10% prob to basically NYC SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 SPC really shaved back the TOR chances to the SW of CT..Sorry Wiz I was surprised to see us in the 10% area anyway...thought maybe more 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 SPC really shaved back the TOR chances to the SW of CT..Sorry Wiz yes they shrunk the 10% prob to basically NYC SW He said to the SW of CT. 10% probs seem reaosnable to me for NYC metro incl W LI/Fairfield Co/SE NY down through DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 JFK gusting to 36 knots. HVN gusting to 28 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 They did? No they didn't lol They had all of CT in earlier. SW Ct is not part of SNE..It's NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wiz getting his three hours of sleep a night right now dreaming of 50 mph gusts while intermittently being plastered with nightmares about spiders. Twitching in his footy pajamas at every tropical storm force gust. aw hes awake now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 They had all of CT in earlier. SW Ct is not part of SNE..It's NYC area Oh I see what you're saying. Who cares? Threat looks the same... it's a bit more conditional up here than it is to the south. As I mentioned I think the NYC metro is interesting later but it's all dependent on getting discrete convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Oh I see what you're saying. Who cares? Threat looks the same... it's a bit more conditional up here than it is to the south. As I mentioned I think the NYC metro is interesting later but it's all dependent on getting discrete convection. Yeah..i just never thought we had the threat for severe here tonight. The wind potential does have me excited..most of the state is now warm sectored and winds starting to crank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Some breaks of sunshine working into Delmarva/S NJ and temps are up to 77-78...With dews around 70, 77-79 degrees should be sufficient for 800-1000j/kg sb CAPE..starting to see that show up over Cape May on latest mesoanalysis..That should be enough for some interesting weather here given the kinematics in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 6z RUN was pretty aggressive with Capes into here...this isn't bad if it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The 11z HRRR also gets between 1000-1500 J/KG of SBcape into most of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah..i just never thought we had the threat for severe here tonight. The wind potential does have me excited..most of the state is now warm sectored and winds starting to crank Well you don't have much of a severe threat... most people never thought it was a NE CT deal. Here's the thing. Like last Saturday the minisupercells will be isolated... most of us see nothing. So weenies need to get their expectations in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds up here are a solid 40kts+ once you get 2500' off the ground. But it hasn't translated at all thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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