moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Raining lightly at KPIT. A taste of what's to come, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 You agree severe threat is meh? Well any cells developing ahead of the line will have the ability to rotate if we can get a little instability going, but overall...I don't think severe is a big threat today. However overnight, we could see one of those deals where the line of showers may not have any lightning...but may produce strong convective gusts with such a strong LLJ. That's more like a short fuse nowcast deal. Probably will effect some, and not so much others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Well any cells developing ahead of the line will have the ability to rotate if we can get a little instability going, but overall...I don't think severe is a big threat today. However overnight, we could see one of those deals where the line of showers may not have any lightning...but may produce strong convective gusts with such a strong LLJ. That's more like a short fuse nowcast deal. Probably will effect some, and not so much others. There's you Wiz special.low topped squall line. He gets so naked for those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 There's you Wiz special.low topped squall line. He gets so naked for those Well he had it last weekend and look what happened. They don't always produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Heading up the mountain this morning... going to be fun to see what the winds do up here in about 10 hours. NWS still has Mansfield in the 70-80mph range at my 3,700ft. Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 already gusting to near 30 on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Western NE , Pete to MPM to PF, breezy URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 CTZ001-MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-066-084-VTZ013-014-181815- /O.CON.KALY.HW.W.0003.120918T1600Z-120919T1000Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE- EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN DUTCHESS- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS... GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC...HOOSICK FALLS... CHATHAM...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS... AMENIA...MILLERTON...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE... GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE TACONICS OF NEW YORK...LITCHFIELD HILLS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. * TIMING...HIGHEST THREAT POTENTIAL IS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. * WINDS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD DAMAGE FROM FALLEN TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 GFS tries to develop a weak low and accompanied by a s/w overnight. The 06z run would be interesting if that happened, as LLJ and convergence are enhanced because of this. It might be a feedback issue...but interesting feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Western NE , Pete to MPM to PF, breezy URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 CTZ001-MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-066-084-VTZ013-014-181815- /O.CON.KALY.HW.W.0003.120918T1600Z-120919T1000Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE- EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN DUTCHESS- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS... GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC...HOOSICK FALLS... CHATHAM...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS... AMENIA...MILLERTON...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE... GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE TACONICS OF NEW YORK...LITCHFIELD HILLS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. * TIMING...HIGHEST THREAT POTENTIAL IS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. * WINDS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD DAMAGE FROM FALLEN TREES AND TREE LIMBS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. && $$ Yes, breezy for Pete and MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 the watch didn't really make much sense to me. advisory might even be overdone for a chunk of the region - though wind+rain+leaves probably warrants the issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 the watch didn't really make much sense to me. advisory might even be overdone for a chunk of the region - though wind+rain+leaves probably warrants the issuance. probably the 5SD LLJ and the lack of inversion warranted the issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Man are we going to rip later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 the watch didn't really make much sense to me. advisory might even be overdone for a chunk of the region - though wind+rain+leaves probably warrants the issuance. Yeah agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 RA- here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Man are we going to rip later What are you setting the over/under at for your hood and the top of Horsebarn Hill on campus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 meh, Nothing to see here, Just move on to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 meh, Nothing to see here, Just move on to fall Should be decent weather into the weekend after this leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 probably the 5SD LLJ and the lack of inversion warranted the issuance. Well yeah...without the presence of the LLJ this isn't even a discussion - that's sort of obvious. I didn't get a chc to review any of their reasoning but based on the wording of the watch text which didn't even have high wind warning criteria speeds mentioned, I'd have to assume its more about threat of damage due to fully leafed trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just started raining pretty hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Well yeah...without the presence of the LLJ this isn't even a discussion - that's sort of obvious. I didn't get a chc to review any of their reasoning but based on the wording of the watch text which didn't even have high wind warning criteria speeds mentioned, I'd have to assume its more about threat of damage due to fully leafed trees. I know what you mean..it seems like it's more high terrain and s coast deal instead of places like Groton MA...but maybe the leaves are driving the issue. I can understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 What are you setting the over/under at for your hood and the top of Horsebarn Hill on campus? Coast will gust over 60..valleys to near 45-50..Hills 50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Coast will gust over 60..valleys to near 45-50..Hills 50+ I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yes, breezy for Pete and MPM. My high gust of 5mph at 7:30 is quaking in its boots. I salute you. LOL RN- continues, .03 down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I salute you. We'll see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 BOX ZFP is pretty meh. Supports the advisory, but nothing extraordinary. Today: Rain with isolated thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Tonight: Rain. Patchy fog in the evening. Rain may be heavy at times in the evening. Breezy with lows in the mid 50s. South winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph...becoming southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Nice write up from Ryan We’re used to big tropical systems in September. More often than not if tropical storms and hurricanes stay away we are pretty quiet (Labor Day 1998 and a few other storms are obvious exceptions). This September, however, things have been fairly active in between periods of gorgeous weather. Last Saturday’s low topped supercell event was unusual and we have another strong system moving toward us. Here’s the synoptic setup for 00z Wednesday. You can see a strong PV disturbance on the dynamic tropopause over the Great Lakes. 18z NAM – 30 Hour Forecast. Pressure (mb) at 1.5 PVU. Large scale synoptic ascent will overspread New England tomorrow ahead of the disturbance to our northwest with the Connecticut in the right entrance region of a powerful 150 knot jet streak. In addition a wild (for September) low level jet of nearly 80 knots will approach tomorrow afternoon. According to the PSU/Eyewall anomaly page this is nearly +5SD from normal! NAM 30 Hour Anomalies Virtually all southerly low level jet events disappoint forecasters expecting wind damage. Why? While we see 80+ knot low level jets with a fair amount of regularity during the cold season an inversion near the surface prevents the strongest winds from mixing down. An event like this, in September, can be problematic with warm sea surface temperatures and high dew points advecting north. A warmer and moist boundary layer can result in surface based instability and steep low level lapse rates thereby promoting strong turbulent mixing. If we can develop surface based instability we’ll have to watch for mini/low topped supercells with very strong 0-1km shear. A conditional/isolated tornado threat does exist if instability develops! Hodographs are quite impressive with very low LCLs. It’s unclear if updrafts will be able to form and also unclear if any convection will be discrete. If we’re able to mix down the stronger winds from just off the deck then wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible in places. With fully leaved trees we may see some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I know what you mean..it seems like it's more high terrain and s coast deal instead of places like Groton MA...but maybe the leaves are driving the issue. I can understand that. yeah as you know once you add rain and leaves to the equation it changes things a bit. you don't need 50 knot gusts to cause some problems. i wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers aren't overly impressive but some folks lose power etc - only takes like 35 mph to start breaking limbs and stuff when you have leaves and rain. when you go through the wind "checklist" this doesn't have many of the variables in place. regardless, should be entertaining to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 yeah as you know once you add rain and leaves to the equation it changes things a bit. you don't need 50 knot gusts to cause some problems. i wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers aren't overly impressive but some folks lose power etc - only takes like 35 mph to start breaking limbs and stuff when you have leaves and rain. when you go through the wind "checklist" this doesn't have many of the variables in place. regardless, should be entertaining to watch unfold. we are already gusting to 40mph at the coast http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&site=OKX&map.x=122&map.y=205 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 yeah as you know once you add rain and leaves to the equation it changes things a bit. you don't need 50 knot gusts to cause some problems. i wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers aren't overly impressive but some folks lose power etc - only takes like 35 mph to start breaking limbs and stuff when you have leaves and rain. when you go through the wind "checklist" this doesn't have many of the variables in place. regardless, should be entertaining to watch unfold. That's how I'm taking it. I suppose any heavier line segments overnight have the chance of bringing stronger winds down..but that is more of a nowcast deal. I couldn't tell you if that will occur right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The early round of convection and possible 2 rounds of severe is starting to look like a good idea with the latest SPC meso / 13z metars and 12z soundings. The IAD sounding looks good. A round of broken convection looks to develop ahead of the squall (this may develop by 20z lee of the Appalachians and move swiftly eastward?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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