CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 I agree. This threat would then go on to move into the NYC area. There are almost 2 LLJ's being modeled on the NAM and it is the first one that may cause the tornado potential. The NYC area also sees a similar wind shift between 21z-00z from SE to S. Any clearing will lead to synoptic wind issues too. 60 knots at 950mb with some sb instability makes you look twice at this thing. Anyone southwest of HFD straight through DCA will have to watch for low topped super cells tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Well I think convection will be low topped sp the issue is going to get low level CAPE juxtaposed with sufficient 0-1km shear. You have to ditch the typical supercell construct in your head for something like this. Convection certainly would be low topped but I would think you have to at least get updrafts to build to a sufficient height as well. Getting 15-20K storm tops would do wonders. Getting sufficient low-level cape to juxtapose with great shear certainly is a key point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Convection certainly would be low topped but I would think you have to at least get updrafts to build to a sufficient height as well. Getting 15-20K storm tops would do wonders. Getting sufficient low-level cape to juxtapose with great shear certainly is a key point. The Brooklyn tornadoes on the 8th struggled to get past 12K feet, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I agree. This threat would then go on to move into the NYC area. There are almost 2 LLJ's being modeled on the NAM and it is the first one that may cause the tornado potential. The NYC area also sees a similar wind shift between 21z-00z from SE to S. What exactly is the significance of a wind shift from SE to S in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Any clearing will lead to synoptic wind issues too. 60 knots at 950mb with some sb instability makes you look twice at this thing. Anyone southwest of HFD straight through DCA will have to watch for low topped super cells tomorrow. Yeah, the wind threat speaks for itself, especially if a few peeks of sun occur. It could be enough for a moderate risk issuance again, as well. I am trying not to go too off the wall with the tornado threat because I'd rather a better thermodynamic environment for something other than a funnel cloud / spin-up / gustnado to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 What exactly is the significance of a wind shift from SE to S in this case? The NAM's double structured LLJ, enhanced surface convergence and primer vorticity ahead of the main "show" would possibly be enough to overcome any shallow inversion/weak instability. It is also indicative of a period of enhanced ageostrophic lift and possibly signals enhancement from the mid-upper levels aiding in this low level forcing. Could prove to be a focal point for supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The Brooklyn tornadoes on the 8th struggled to get past 12K feet, IIRC. Oh wow really? I've been meaning to ask what the storm tops were for those supercells and the ones across western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The NAM's double structured LLJ, enhanced surface convergence and primer vorticity ahead of the main "show" would possibly be enough to overcome any shallow inversion/weak instability. It is also indicative of a period of enhanced ageostrophic lift and possibly signals enhancement from the mid-upper levels aiding in this low level forcing. Could prove to be a focal point for supercells. Very evident over DC and MD at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 BWI oh lawdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 here we go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 HUGE 10% TORNADO AREA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I am a bit shocked to see TOR probs that high this far north but it won't take much for any supercell to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 It's like a juxtaposition of relatively tame wording and strong wording: ...ERN U.S. ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS...A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN A BEND FROM NEW YORK SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION -- LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING/SRN UPPER SYSTEM. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE RISK AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS/SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME...STRONG FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. CLEARLY...THE LACK OF BUOYANCY ACROSS MANY AREAS WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE DEGREE OF VEERING/SHEAR ANTICIPATED WARRANTS LOW SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE U.S. E OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NY/ERN PA/MD/VA AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND/NJ/DE. THIS PORTION OF THE REGION MAY REMAIN E OF THE MORE EXPANSIVE ZONE OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON -- POSSIBLY ALLOWING POCKETS OF WEAK HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THUS -- WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF GREATER THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFTS TO INTERACT WITH A VERY FAVORABLE BACKGROUND KINEMATIC FIELD SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...AND A GENERAL LACK OF CAPE ANTICIPATED ATTM...THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MDT RISK UPGRADE ATTM. STILL...SMALL ZONES OF FAIRLY INTENSE/ROTATING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LIKELY. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG SHEAR PERSISTS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE RISK AREA...ENDING FROM W TO E AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES/REACHES THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 HUGE 10% TORNADO AREA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 lol wut It is a big ass 10%, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 lol wut Pretty large for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty large for this area Yeah, thus my lol wut... I was extremely surprised by the breadth of the 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah, thus my lol wut... I was extremely surprised by the breadth of the 10%. I think they may be accounting for the uncertainty of where the best destabilization is going to take place, considering such impressive shear profiles and very low LCL heights, anywhere that does sufficiently destabilize enough for more robust updrafts will have the chance to produce tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah, thus my lol wut... I was extremely surprised by the breadth of the 10%. ahh I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 no big deal 437 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND RHODE ISLAND. * HAZARDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE COASTLINES. * TIMING...4 PM TO MIDNIGHT NEAR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...7 PM TO 6 AM NEAR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. * IMPACTS...THE STRONG WINDS COULD DOWN TREES AND LIMBS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 HUGE 10% TORNADO AREA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lol you're always surprised by the tornado probs. seemed to me the 10% contour was a good bet based on what I saw last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 As we feared BOX takes the low road and goes with boring wind advisory. Since it appears most of the rain stays west of SNE today..we should be able to have some sunny breaks..Lots of blue skies up there now. If so,,we should be able to rip Severe threat is meh Winds are main story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 As we feared BOX takes the low road and goes with boring wind advisory. Since it appears most of the rain stays west of SNE today..we should be able to have some sunny breaks..Lots of blue skies up there now. If so,,we should be able to rip Severe threat is meh Winds are main story Really? Full overcast in GC this morning. The top gust I've recorded this year has been 32mph. No doubt, the reality has been much higher. But "officially", there's my benchmark. Enjoy the tornados, Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Nothing from Scooter this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tolland Patch FTL?? High Wind Warning For Tolland The National Weather Service has issued a high wind watch for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for Tolland and the surrounding area. The forecast also calls for heavy rain and possible thunderstorms. The hazards of strong and damaging winds are possible between 4 p.m. Tuesday and 6 a.m. on Wednesday. Winds are forecast from the south with winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts 45 to 55 mph possible, with the strongest winds over elevated terrain and near the coastlines, according to weather.gov. Residents are warned to be on the lookout for downed tree limbs and possibly downed trees. This may result in scattered power outages and downed power lines. To prepare, take precautions now to secure any loose items outdoors such as lawn furniture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Most of that rain stays in far western areas..Then we warm sector this afternoon and rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Nothing from Scooter this morning Eh, nothing really changed. Should be a good storm for the hills there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Kevin there may be an arc of heavy showers moving in this aftn out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Kevin there may be an arc of heavy showers moving in this aftn out your way. You agree severe threat is meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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