CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Remnant low from Ernesto was similar? The one down in the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Kind of like we don't get big snows in October. Well it's a little different though, but i see your point. Almost as anomalous as your leaf drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The one down in the MA? Sept 2 2006, gusted to mid 50 s on the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/pns/09022006.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I guess what is a little concerning is such high winds that are just off the deck and what looks to be a weak inversion. That certainly is nothing like the inversions we have in winter. If the NAM is right, we rip. NAM low levels were in between dry adiabatic and moist adiabatic which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Sept 2 2006, gusted to mid 50 s on the coast . Maybe that is what LL meant.That was the storm that gave the MA lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 It will be shocking if the NAM or GFS LLJ verifies What are you on about now? Strong LL winds have been progged by the models for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 What are you on about now? read above it was discussed in detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'll say 50 mph imby 30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 This will be a learning experience. Will typical southerly flow climo apply to an extent, or will such an anomalous LLJ and a weak inversion cause strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 This will be a learning experience. Will typical southerly flow climo apply to an extent, or will such an anomalous LLJ and a weak inversion cause strong winds. Like Ryan said a couple of days ago, ripping LLJ and 70 s water, should be interesting. The NAM soundings are pretty wild yet they still show deck winds 20-30 less than just over our heads. My tree top special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looking forward to reports and post event analysis. Hope I have power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Anybody else getting an error when going onto PSU NARR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Anybody else getting an error when going onto PSU NARR? si senor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Anybody else getting an error when going onto PSU NARR? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 You weenies broke it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Been having trouble with EWALL on and off all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 dews get into the 70's in parts of connecticut on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I dont know how accurate these maps are but they look good 0z nam at 24hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012091800&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 See as much now as 65kt up around 925mb tomorrow....that's pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 the closer we get the better things are looking and that doesnt happen often See as much now as 65kt up around 925mb tomorrow....that's pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 See as much now as 65kt up around 925mb tomorrow....that's pretty nuts. KGON has 63 on sounding but 26 at the surface, model not showing those winds mixing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I do think we will see some inversions tomorrow certainly limiting mixing potential. However, I can still see some 35-45 mph gusts down there. I still believe it's the areas above 1000' for big wind with 1500' up getting nailed pretty good with winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm becoming interested in a midday to mid afternoon tornado threat in the southern part of my state. I may have to head south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm becoming interested in a midday to mid afternoon tornado threat in the southern part of my state. I may have to head south. Yeah, the SB CAPE sky-rocketed this run. I can def see a tornado threat starting in S NJ and heading NNE towards NYC/western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah, the SB CAPE sky-rocketed this run. I can def see a tornado threat starting in S NJ and heading NNE towards NYC/western Long Island. Post-warm front, a dry intrusion works in for a while (850-700mb) and allows us to temporarily break, possibly even with a poke of sunshine? There is an interesting time in coastal, S-C NJ where winds shift from SE to S during the early-mid afternoon as profiles moisten. Some hints of a possible vort max too ahead of the main show as low-mid level winds accelerate significantly. I wonder if we get something before the deform stuff gets here. The NAM is also threatening late afternoon/evening for most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Post-warm front, a dry intrusion works in for a while (850-700mb) and allows us to temporarily break, possibly even with a poke of sunshine? There is an interesting time in coastal, S-C NJ where winds shift from SE to S during the early-mid afternoon as profiles moisten. Some hints of a possible vort max too ahead of the main show as low-mid level winds accelerate significantly. I wonder if we get something before the deform stuff gets here. The NAM is also threatening late afternoon/evening for most of the state. I could see a late afternoon NYC metro tornado threat particularly of there is some post warm front clearing and/or dew points overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The TOR threat tomorrow down across NJ and portions of the mid-Atlantic certainly is interesting...those hodographs are insanely large with a tremendous amount of directional shear. One potential issue is that small inversion showing up on some soundings up around 700mb...could work to prevent updrafts from penetrating above 10K or so or much higher and cells wouldn't be able to fully realize and utilize the great shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I could see a late afternoon NYC metro tornado threat particularly of there is some post warm front clearing and/or dew points overperform. I agree. This threat would then go on to move into the NYC area. There are almost 2 LLJ's being modeled on the NAM and it is the first one that may cause the tornado potential. The NYC area also sees a similar wind shift between 21z-00z from SE to S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 The TOR threat tomorrow down across NJ and portions of the mid-Atlantic certainly is interesting...those hodographs are insanely large with a tremendous amount of directional shear. One potential issue is that small inversion showing up on some soundings up around 700mb...could work to prevent updrafts from penetrating above 10K or so or much higher and cells wouldn't be able to fully realize and utilize the great shear. Well I think convection will be low topped sp the issue is going to get low level CAPE juxtaposed with sufficient 0-1km shear. You have to ditch the typical supercell construct in your head for something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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