andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 KABE at 21z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Both the 0z NAM and GFS really ramped up the instability in SE PA and especially SJ. 1,000+ SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Be very afraid of the massive 10% tor area, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 69/68 here, already juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Dewpoints are surging now, very significant increases across much of the region since ~12-18 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 the lack of sun isn't going to matter with regards to tornado/no tornado threat. this is your typical fall squall -- a few ef-0's or ef-1's are certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wonder what type of clearing, if any, we can get outta this? Only daylight will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wonder what type of clearing, if any, we can get outta this? Only daylight will tell... Patchy clearing at best. There are breaks in the higher clouds but not sure about low just based on satellite. Would have to look at surface obs and I'm lazy right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 71/71, DP still coming up steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 .69 so far up here in wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That morning batch that came through an hour ago was pretty heavy. 6z nam hodo for PHL later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Better watch that area where those cells are firing in jersey later on today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Better watch that area where those cells are firing in jersey later on today... Right over my house...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Side note, Dr. Forbes has a torcon of 4 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Right over my house...lol Surprise.... Lol. I don't think those are of concern right now, but that could be some type of pseudo boundry for storms to fire on throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 66/66 here and 0,63" so far this morning. Going to be an interesting day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 1.5" shower overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Getting breaks in the clouds here, 73/72, disgusting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Getting breaks in the clouds here, 73/72, disgusting out. Yes. Bumped up 2 degrees. Now 68/68 here. No breaks though. Solid overcast and on the edge of the main precipitation field on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 80% chance of Tstorm watch to our SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 80% chance of Tstorm watch to our SW That's probably gonna be a tornado watch, usually when it's in red, that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 New SPC outlook trims the 10% some, but makes the 5% bigger. Still mentions possible moderate risk upgrade if supercells look to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 You can not get a much better high shear set up then this in respect to to the weaker instability. Should be interesting to see if any of that stronger instability off shore spreads in. we have seen this happen many times over the summer. All and all do think the threat for low topped super cells this afternoon is good. and check out the 850 moisture transport wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Raining like a sumbeach up here. Up to 0.87" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Current Mesoscale Discussion: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN DE...ERN PA...NJ..SE NY...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181514Z - 181645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN DE...ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND WRN CT THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP AS STORMS ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN RESPONSE...WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...A LARGE CANOPY OF RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS FROM CNTRL NY SWD INTO NRN VA WITH SOME REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT SHOWING UP ACROSS CNTRL PA AND WRN MD. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LINED UP DIRECTLY ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET WITH ABOUT 60 KT OF FLOW EVIDENT ON THE STERLING AND STATE COLLEGE WSR-88D VWPS. THIS JET FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF NEWARK AND NEW YORK CITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...CELLS WITHIN THE LINE MAY BEGIN TO ROTATE AND A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. AS THE LINE ORGANIZES AND SFC TEMPS WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/18/2012 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41887407 40907596 40137643 39617609 39467569 39237481 39647426 41007293 41577325 41887407 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Upgrade to moderate Risk incoming: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...CNTRL/ERN NC...CNTRL/ERN VA...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CNTRL/ERN MD...MUCH OF DE...ERN PA...WRN/NRN NJ...PARTS OF ERN NY CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 181519Z - 181645Z SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY. DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK AREA...AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES...LINE BREAKS...AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION. ..COHEN/CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX... RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 38477848 39257796 41027695 42267617 43217502 43317372 42317374 41087414 39567508 38167576 37147632 35507746 34637883 34547975 35388011 36447988 38477848 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Side note, Dr. Forbes has a torcon of 4 for the area. Did he mention any ahtflow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That's bad timing PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1149 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 ...NOAA WEATHER RADIO OUTAGE... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST FROM HAMBURG MOUNTAIN, NEW JERSEY /STATION KZZ31/ WILL BE OFF THE AIR FOR MAINTENANCE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS OUTAGE MAY CAUSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That's bad timing PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1149 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 ...NOAA WEATHER RADIO OUTAGE... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST FROM HAMBURG MOUNTAIN, NEW JERSEY /STATION KZZ31/ WILL BE OFF THE AIR FOR MAINTENANCE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS OUTAGE MAY CAUSE. Surprised they didn't hold off with todays potential unless it's with timing and has to be done because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tornado watch for all of us until 7 PM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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