messier77 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Think it is worth throwing the snow tires on for the upcoming storm ? I drive to Somerville everyday and with my summer tires on even a light dusting of snow or mixed precip will make it treacherous to drive. I apologize for the somewhat off topic post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 8, 2012 Author Share Posted November 8, 2012 This is definitely going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 its 42 degrees..... would have thought the october storm last year would put an end to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I've seen some bad ones, but despite the initialization errors I think the 00z NAM run the night before this nor'easter was the worst short term model run I've ever seen in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I've seen some bad ones, but despite the initialization errors I think the 00z NAM run the night before this nor'easter was the worst short term model run I've ever seen in my life. At least this is a nice clue for the ensuing winter -- NAM sucks as a short term model too. Right up until the event started, it had big snows for E PA. GFS definitely handled the < 12 hr forecast better, even moreso than the Euro which also had 4"+ for PHL at 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 ECMWF Monthlies show a +NAO the whole entire winter. Hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 At least this is a nice clue for the ensuing winter -- NAM sucks as a short term model too. Right up until the event started, it had big snows for E PA. GFS definitely handled the < 12 hr forecast better, even moreso than the Euro which also had 4"+ for PHL at 12z yesterday. Rgem nailed the storm from 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 ECMWF Monthlies show a +NAO the whole entire winter. Hope it's wrong. The real HM thinks this winter will be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Chilly start to Nov.. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Chilly start to Nov.. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Most definitely- although those anomalies should be moderated with the above normal stretch in temperatures for the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 The real HM thinks this winter will be great Yes. A bunch of other mets/forecasters also thinking along the lines of that as well for the area. I expect some decent cold air to move into the area by Thanksgiving. GFS and GEFS have been consistent in their model runs for ridging to begin to return near Greenland at around the Thanksgiving timeframe, with the 18z GFS in particular showing a monster trough during this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Most definitely- although those anomalies should be moderated with the above normal stretch in temperatures for the next week or so. Sun-Tues look above normal. The rest of the week look to be normal to slightly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Sun-Tues look above normal. The rest of the week look to be normal to slightly below. Wednesday looks below normal. Above normal heights start to rebuild in the east on the GEFS in response to west coast troughing after the transient mid week cool shot moves in, though that ridge doesn't look to be quite as anomalous for the area as the ridge impacting our weather early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Despite the very chilly start to the month from 11/1 to 11/8, I still wouldn't be surprised if the month turns out slightly on the plus side given how things have been going. This is especially true if we hit near 70 for a couple days late weekend, early next week with lows well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I'm not yet convinced that this winter will be a good one snow wise. Need another couple weeks to solidify my thoughts before I put out a winter outlook, but right now I'm mostly conflicted about the NAO/AO signalling. The October Eurasian snow cover was favorable, but there are other correlations (quite strong ones too) that point to a positive NAO. If I had to make a call right now, it'd be a milder than normal winter with below avg snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I'm not yet convinced that this winter will be a good one snow wise. Need another couple weeks to solidify my thoughts before I put out a winter outlook, but right now I'm mostly conflicted about the NAO/AO signalling. The October Eurasian snow cover was favorable, but there are other correlations (quite strong ones too) that point to a positive NAO. If I had to make a call right now, it'd be a milder than normal winter with below avg snow. Whats the snowfall average down in C NJ? You guys should be at least halfway there by now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 this November is tied for sixth snowiest...Only one of the previous six got higher amounts in December...1896...Only one winter had less snow than average...1989-90...So if December doesn't produce it will be par for the course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Whats the snowfall average down in C NJ? You guys should be at least halfway there by now.. Not as low as you would think, 29". We'd need another 2-3 inches to be halfway right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Not as low as you would think, 29". We'd need another 2-3 inches to be halfway right now. Oh wow.. You guys avg more than NYC.. Interesting never knew that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Yes. A bunch of other mets/forecasters also thinking along the lines of that as well for the area. I expect some decent cold air to move into the area by Thanksgiving. GFS and GEFS have been consistent in their model runs for ridging to begin to return near Greenland at around the Thanksgiving timeframe, with the 18z GFS in particular showing a monster trough during this timeframe. That is usually when we all start to get more sustained cold periods. Hopefully it means the NAO won't stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Not as low as you would think, 29". We'd need another 2-3 inches to be halfway right now. Wow you average that much?, how far are you from the coast?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 00z GEFS are more agressive with the blocking signal then they were in previous cycles. For being eleven days out, a positive height departure of +18-24 by the davis straight is a pretty big signal. There are also signs of ridging trying to return to te Arctic in the long range GEFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Hopefully the GEFS verifies because the op runs suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Wow you average that much?, how far are you from the coast?. About 10-12 miles. The 2000s helped with an average around 34". Before this past decade the average was about 28". New Brunswick's new 1980-2010 average is also 29". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Storm around Thanksgiving keeps on showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Anyone watched The Anatomy of Sandy on TWC? It's really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 0z GFS is much colder than previous runs through hour 189 thanks to the high up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Got gas in Queens in 8 minutes. And for only $3.89 a gallon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Finally having halloween here today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Got gas in Queens in 8 minutes. And for only $3.89 a gallon. Where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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