Cfa Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 JB "Weatherbell tolling idea of cold November northern plains to east coast." I guess a warm November is locked in. Today would be nicer if it wasn't so windy, I wish the sun felt this strong in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 If last night's euro is correct, all stations will finish well above normal for October. That bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Well the end of October is cold on the GFS. Steve D also thinks that it will get cold after the warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Brett Anderson Last winter, the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations remained in the high, positive range for an unusually long time, This overwhelmed any impact from La Nina and kept the Arctic air trapped in the far north while mild, Pacific air overwhelmed the country much of the season.The odds of this happening again this winter seem low based on what we have been looking at. My thoughts. Also, NW Canada looks much colder than last year, and looks to be slightly colder than seasonal norms. This will have an impact on the weather downstream into the US. Also sea ice in the Arctic is low and there are warmer than normal SST's in the Arctic. This could have a significant on the AO and what it does this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 With the exception of Friday's possible severe event (but severe threats always have high bust potential) there doesn't appear to be anything too terribly interesting within the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Alot of blocking showing up on the models in the mid to long range. Great to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Get excited metfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 This may be a dumb question but if all of this blocking is snowing up in the mid to longterm why would have temps in the 70's mext week???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 This may be a dumb question but if all of this blocking is snowing up in the mid to longterm why would have temps in the 70's mext week???? Its for end of next week...going into november....the next few days will be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I am getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 First flakes near Halloween on the 18z GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F18%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=288&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 First flakes near Halloween on the 18z GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M This is definitely going to happen. In all seriousness though, the GFS has been fairly consistent in the long range to bring significant chilly air to our region after the mid range warm spell. It's ensembles agree with such an idea. The chilly air would be quite the contrast to the mid range warm spell if it were to verify as depicted by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 This may be a dumb question but if all of this blocking is snowing up in the mid to longterm why would have temps in the 70's mext week???? Our weather here in the Northeast is more strongly correlated to the Pacific than the Atlantic at this time of year, so the blocking is somewhat muted. This changes as we head into winter, with the NAO exerting more influence. I actually wrote a post in large part on your question today. http://www.nymetroweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I havent seen Anthony this excited in a while still deserves a few..... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Steve D's Winter Outlook http://www.nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20122013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I feel a pretty different aura in comparison to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 GFS showing big warm up next week. 80's anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 No thank you GFS showing big warm up next week. 80's anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 GFS showing big warm up next week. 80's anyone? Before the cold air comes in. Looks like some places might hit the 70s next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 GFS showing big warm up next week. 80's anyone? Where are the 80s on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Where are the 80s on the GFS? There currently are no 80's on the GFS. But likely outcomes may be warmer than the model output according to climatology. I'm not saying all of the tri-state will be in the 80's, it will be mostly 70's, but SNJ might see 80 degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Why would climatology dictate that the gfs is too cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Maybe I didn't use the best choice of wording, I'm doing these post pretty quick. I remember hearing at a conference than some models including the GFS are actually too cool, not by much, only a margin of a degree C. Considering that this warm spell is still a long ways away, things could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Looks good to me. Normal and just about normal December and January. Forget February. You're not seriously worried about what the CFS is saying are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Looks good to me. Normal and just about normal December and January. Forget February. You're not seriously worried about what the CFS is saying are you? Snow88 is the resident model hugger, lives and dies on a model run! Lol. But seriously the CFS really isnt the best model for longer range forecasting by any stretch of the imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 You want to laugh. Check this out from the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 You want to laugh. Check this out from the CMC Just have it keep showing that within 48 hours a couple months from now and that 570 line will be the 540 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Check out the pv on the euro. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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