Edge Weather Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Canadian pops a Miller B next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 If 12Z GFS Christmas Eve snow dreams could come true: http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow360.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 If 12Z GFS snow dreams could come true: http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow360.gif At least one thing you can say is that you are finally in a part of the year when snow is climatologically possible...and not some pipe dream like in October when it takes a miracle...indeed, the complete absence of snow during the month would be climatologically unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Take a look at P007 in the lower left hand corner. This is at 96 hrs (Thurs. 7am). Highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Look at P009 at 174 hrs., or 1pm on Sunday. The potential is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 indeed. mine and many others. what is not my mere opinion, though, is his complete lack of a strong grasp on the english language, his intentionally vague wording, and his multiple-scenario veiled forecasting where he really can't lose. You are brilliant! Who are the many others? The ones that live and die with every model run and change their minds every three hours? He does seem to be doing very well so im not sure he really cares what a few may think on this forum. So mr know it all...what's your forecast for the rest of the month? And let's not be so vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 The 18z GEFS like the idea of a coastal system for the 16-17th system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 SOI is tanking http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 GFS showing 2 threats in the upcoming week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 12/16-12/18 storm looks legit to me, expect a 6-12"+ snowstorm for most, except the immediate coast of course. Strong blocking signal is main driver despite a crappy pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Fingers crossed for the 17th, but I just have a feeling the -NAO will end up not showing up or worse: is "delayed". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Last winter just keeps replaying in my mind I realize things are diff this winter but you have to admit this is exactly how it started last year we were always waiting for the change to come witch of course never did.. I hope this year it does change but can't help to think about what happend last winter!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Last winter just keeps replaying in my mind I realize things are diff this winter but you have to admit this is exactly how it started last year we were always waiting for the change to come witch of course never did.. I hope this year it does change but can't help to think about what happend last winter!!!! It already snowed twice and the pattern coming up is looking good. Haven't you been reading the main thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 It already snowed twice and the pattern coming up is looking good. Haven't you been reading the main thread? Haven't you read any of his past posts on this board?...not out of the ordinary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Last winter just keeps replaying in my mind I realize things are diff this winter but you have to admit this is exactly how it started last year we were always waiting for the change to come witch of course never did.. I hope this year it does change but can't help to think about what happend last winter!!!! There's a name for that, it's called posttraumatic stress disorder. In this case it looks induced by an accumulation of panic attacks from model teasing and let-downs over the past year. Prognosis: Outlook not so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 There's a name for that, it's called posttraumatic stress disorder. In this case it looks induced by an accumulation of panic attacks from model teasing and let-downs over the past year. Prognosis: Outlook not so good Good one, haha! Though I think all of us to a certain degree are experiencing this a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 18z GFS has a 969mb low centered about 150 miles off the NJ Coast at 216 hrs, with nice wrap around into our area, with precip amounts over 1 inch in most areas within 20 miles of the coast, and over a half inch back to the Delaware River. A little too warm for snow though taken verbatim, but this has massive potential. Huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 18z gfs ensemble mean amazingly has a very strong signal for the storm next Wednesday as it has a 996mb low in almost the exact same spot as the operational run, but 12 hrs earlier at 204 hrs, and it is much colder, with 850's below zero for basically everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 18z gfs ensemble mean amazingly has a very strong signal for the storm next Wednesday as it has a 996mb low in almost the exact same spot as the operational run, but 12 hrs earlier at 204 hrs, and it is much colder, with 850's below zero for basically everyone. Issue is though if you look at the surface charts their is still a primary that eventually dies in mich which then hands off its energy to the coastal. So at the surface or just above you get southerly winds and it warms the bl to much even though the upper levels are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Issue is though if you look at the surface charts their is still a primary that eventually dies in mich which then hands off its energy to the coastal. So at the surface or just above you get southerly winds and it warms the bl to much even though the upper levels are colder. Too early to focus on details like the BL temperature when this event is still 8-9 days out. The mean shows a pretty strong signal for a storm, which is the main thing that matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Too early to focus on details like the BL temperature when this event is still 8-9 days out. The mean shows a pretty strong signal for a storm, which is the main thing that matters at this point. Then why talk about a storm 8-9 days from now? Sure the bl temps will change as well as the track, so i don't see why you can't talk about that? I if you get a primary that dies in mich, regardless or bl temps that is not a snowy setup for nyc at all.. Sure it may start as snow but it would go to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Its not about BL temp, if you get a primary that dies in mich, regardless that is not a snowy setup for nyc at all.. Sure it may start as snow but it would go to rain. Agreed with the above. Inland locations would definitely do better in a set-up on the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That storm is going to change a million times, it might even be completely gone in 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That storm is going to change a million times, it most likely will be completely gone in 2 days fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Alpha turned into a debbie downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT man I really REALLY REALLY want to do this .... But I cant ... gotta wait... but man I REALLY want to do this..... Noce doggie.... Did you have a nice Nap KU ??? (thats the name of my Virtual Dog ) ... you come over the Xmas ? really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT Bring on a Christmas snowstorm. I am home alone with the wife and would love a snowstorm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Then why talk about a storm 8-9 days from now? Sure the bl temps will change as well as the track, so i don't see why you can't talk about that? I if you get a primary that dies in mich, regardless or bl temps that is not a snowy setup for nyc at all.. Sure it may start as snow but it would go to rain. I think you misunderstand....it is the "dying" (actual term is filling..indicating a rise in pressure) that allows a transfer of energy to a coastal or secondary low...and that cyclogenesis is generally a cooling process in this area rather than a warming one....often associated with a shift of wind into the NE...ie April 6,1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I can't believe how terrible this thread is. The mets that have blogs hype immensely so you keep reading their blogs. DT has gotten more sensationalized over the years (surprisingly). Steve D has more presence but he was just awful to begin with.. beating a decaying corpse of a horse but Valentine's Day Storm 2007 was such a dreadful forecast on his part and he never wavered until after the sleet was falling. But yes, of course they want you to think it's going to snow. Because no-one pays attention to the weather during the winter if it's not going to snow. I've literally only been checking the EURO twice a day because there's nothing going on. I've been ignoring the daily weather forecast for a while now & it's been reliably warm. Was quite surprised at the rain this weekend but looks like we're back to warmth next week. I accidentally wore my parka out today because it was raining so I assumed it would be cold. Wrong. It was like a sauna out today. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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