dbc Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 ...looks fine. if you want a "weather game"..checkout sunday nite..the packers are home and looks like snow will be around the green bay area.. It'll definitely be fine for me. I'll be watching the game at Jack Flats a block off of Duval Street in Key West, FL lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Please Happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Please Happen. What is that a snow bomb over DC?? wtf.. That is every weather weenies dream.. That looks like a combo of 93/96 and 03 We can all dream now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 What is that a snow bomb over DC?? wtf.. That is every weather weenies dream.. That looks like a combo of 93/96 and 03 We can all dream now! Yeah, agreed. The 18z GFS also has the storm for the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Dec 19th storm still showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 This looks nice. GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 0z GGEM for Dec 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Steve D So based on all the models so far, the idea I had presented WAY back in early November of a pattern change for 12/15 is on it's way. Winter is on the way everyone and you'll know it when it's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Its a nice storm... rain storm. 0z GGEM for Dec 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Its a nice storm... rain storm. Are you really looking at that right now? The point of the map was to show everyone that the models have a stormy period ahead. This solution doesn't seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 0z GGEM for Dec 16 Too bad thats 204 hours out and won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Are you really looking at that right now? The point of the map was to show everyone that the models have a stormy period ahead. Is it really good to have a coastal storm with no benefits and many downsides? There's still recovery efforts from Sandy, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Its a nice storm... rain storm. At least it would be a strong storm, but its just a fantasy. The weather is oh so boring lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 At least it would be a strong storm, but its just a fantasy. The weather is oh so boring lately. Didn't you have Sandy? Followed by a early November snowstorm, the largest for so early in the season? Relax, the weather isn't always gonna be exciting. Be glad you don't live out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Is it really good to have a coastal storm with no benefits and many downsides? There's still recovery efforts from Sandy, you know. Who is even saying that there will be a coastal storm anyway? The pattern on the GFS, GGEM and now the euro is a west to east pattern.( Gradient ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Didn't you have Sandy? Followed by a early November snowstorm, the largest for so early in the season? Relax, the weather isn't always gonna be exciting. Be glad you don't live out here Yeah I couldn't imagine being stuck somewhere next to weatherless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Late season east coast hurricane strike. Early season record snow. Warm dec with the constant drum beat of a pattern change , never to materialize I've seen ths before. I just can't remember when. That trough is in the west is the king and If u don't dislodge it nothing will usurp its dominance I've seen day 10 model runs and 15 day ensemble runs look promising many times But they havent had a good handle to this point. I hope this changes after the 20 th but I'm suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Wow, this is getting old... same old story - who knows what's going to happen.. It would seem as though if one was a betting man, betting cold would be a risky bet at this juncture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 6z GFS,0z Euro ensembles were really bad. Southeast ridge is back in the east. Hope it was blip runs. Lets see on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The strong AK polar vortex looks to establish itself for the long term, similar to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 19th still showing up. The next 10 days are pretty blah for any snow chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Look, everyone and their mother said that there were signs on the wall last season at this time that things would change.. They never did- or if they did- it was very miniscule... If a strong AK polar vortex establishes itself it's game over for quite some time. Perhaps we're saved by a change by late in the winter.. But the similarities to last year are chilling to say the least.. Maybe not synoptically - but at the end of the day- the outline of events over the past few months are rather similar.. Hurricane, early season snowfall and now a warm start to December with hints of change way in the future only to be pushed further out into the future. It's hard to bet on cold and snow at this point.. Until large synoptic changes begin to appear in the near term on the model- say 4-6 days out, I can't see making a forecast predicting that things will change anytime soon.. I hope I am wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Of the recent warmth... Dec 2012 now marks the 23rd straight month the temp has risen to 60F or greater (last month that failed to reach 60F was Jan 2011) in Central Park. I believe this is the longest such stretch of the 21st Century thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Late season east coast hurricane strike. Early season record snow. Warm dec with the constant drum beat of a pattern change , never to materialize I've seen ths before. I just can't remember when. That trough is in the west is the king and If u don't dislodge it nothing will usurp its dominance I've seen day 10 model runs and 15 day ensemble runs look promising many times But they havent had a good handle to this point. I hope this changes after the 20 th but I'm suspicious. Agreed. Eerily similar feeling to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 SE ridge for the win this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Steve D "Models all over the place today. That means changes are a foot. This is text book model mayhem that will have many METS jumping back and forth until the models lock in on what's happening at the stratospheric levels and with tropical convection. Back and forth, back and forth. I'm standing my ground on this forecast I had since early November because thus far every observation I see is right to where I thought we would be. The idea of a super cold December was never mine so I feel no need to justify that forecast. Slow and steady change. That's the forecast and that's what I'm sticking with. Progressively colder and stormier, not snowier though." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Steve D: "Progressively colder and stormier, not snowier though." Since there has been no recent snow, and he asserts it will not <be> snowier; he is thus essentially calling for no snow in the mid range...which makes it all rather pointless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Steve D: "Models all over the place today. That means changes are a foot. This is text book model mayhem that will have many METS jumping back and forth until the models lock in on what's happening at the stratospheric levels and with tropical convection. Back and forth, back and forth. I'm standing my ground on this forecast I had since early November because thus far every observation I see is right to where I thought we would be. The idea of a super cold December was never mine so I feel no need to justify that forecast. Slow and steady change. That's the forecast and that's what I'm sticking with. Progressively colder and stormier, not snowier though." Though the commentary could get an award for most cliches in one paragraph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Steve's writing is almost as bad as his forecasting. He is atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Since there has been no recent snow, and he asserts it will not <be> snowier; he is thus essentially calling for no snow in the mid range...which makes it all rather pointless... What delta do u give that not one inch of snow falls by DEC 31 cpk right now i am 60 delta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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