uncle W Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 November 2012 will end up as one of the coldest/snowiest in recent years even though there was no temperatures below 30 in NYC...Other cold Novembers... year...monthly ave/minimum temperature... 1947..........44.2..........27 1951..........43.5..........22 1955..........44.3..........16 1962..........43.2..........28 1967..........42.5..........20 1972..........44.4..........21 1976..........41.7..........17 1980..........44.6..........28 1995..........43.5..........24 1996..........43.0..........23 2012..........43.9..........31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 DT says throw the 12z GFS out in the garbage. GEFS has a better clue. He also mentioned about the GEFS showing hints of a possible east coast storm in Mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 DT says throw the 12z GFS out in the garbage. GEFS has a better clue. He also mentioned about the GEFS showing hints of a possible east coast storm in Mid December. its not much different than the EURO i doubt its garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 its not much different than the EURO i doubt its garbage Even Joe B agrees. He actually believes both models are having a terrible time with the pattern. Another Met responded by tweeting " started noticing yesterday that the EURO was having problems resolving the pattern last next week." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 The 18z GFS doesn't look half bad after this early week warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Even Joe B agrees. He actually believes both models are having a terrible time with the pattern. Another Met responded by tweeting " started noticing yesterday that the EURO was having problems resolving the pattern last next week." Steve D also thinks that the pattern changes in the middle of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 DT *** ALERT *** PATTERN CHANGE LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODELS MOVE INTO STRONG AGREEMENT .... WINTER IS COMING... more shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ^^^Sounds like 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 ^^^Sounds like 2011. Why are people comparing this winter to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Why are people comparing this winter to last winter. He's saying that Dt and others were saying the same thing last year, and it never came true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 He's saying that Dt and others were saying the same thing last year, and it never came true Yeah I do have to say, the similarities are disturbing. Hopefully the results won't be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Yeah I do have to say, the similarities are disturbing. Hopefully the results won't be similar. ALERT I'm gonna say the same thing in 1 week ALERT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Someone please enlighten me on how Anal log got banned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 ...looking forward to wabc's weather special tonite..7:30..channel 7. lee goldberg along w/ jeff smith will discuss the extreme weather we've had over the last couple of years.(the new normal?).. and of course they will give their thoughts on winter 12-13..check it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Buffalo with just a trace of snow on the season...Marquette with just 8.7" (about 60% of normal year to date)....those are not good signs (indicative of a lack of sufficiently cold air masses dropping out of Canada) but lake effect #'s can change very quickly. I remember when lake effect began in October. Reliably. Basically no snow on the ground anywhere in NY or New England...last year, it took until the last couple of days of December to get snow on the ground along the Vermont / Canadien border...truly a remarkable occurrence. WTF are you crying about? Snow in Barfalo? It's the synoptic desert...if it's snowing there, it's probably not snowing in the NYC metro. We have been able to maintain average to below average temps around these parts without any Arctic airmasses dropping SE. That is saying a lot for us. Buffalo not seeing appreciable snow this early is really meaningless. As I have said again and again, bitter cold Novembers do not help anyone on the NYC board. Avoiding blowtorch is vital...seeing signs of continued blocking and future blocking in the second half of November is good....but highs in the 30s in NYC and Buffalo snow do not help things. See...and he thought my observations were entirely w/o merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 See...and he thought my observations were entirely w/o merit. Snow in Buffalo at least means we've got the cold temperatures on our side here. No snow in Buffalo = warm pattern w/ few arctic shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Snow in Buffalo at least means we've got the cold temperatures on our side here. No snow in Buffalo = warm pattern w/ few arctic shots. Seriously Tom...when was there ever a consistent winter pattern in this area w/o solid snow cover from the lower Hudson Valley to the Arctic Archiapelago...winter proceeds southbound in the fall and then recedes northbound in the spring...winter (save for a rare fluke storm) will not come to the metro area until is is established in places like the Berkshires and Albany... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Seriously Tom...when was there ever a consistent winter pattern in this area w/o solid snow cover from the lower Hudson Valley to the Arctic Archiapelago...winter proceeds southbound in the fall and then recedes northbound in the spring...winter (save for a rare fluke storm) will not come to the metro area until is is established in places like the Berkshires and Albany... There's a decent chance we go on another late 90s run with pathetic totals several years in a row. Makes you think how truly special the winters of the last decade were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I have to agree with William.. He's spot on w/ Buffalo, NY... It's a synoptic desert.. I went to school there for college and outside a few big lake snow events, it's a boring weather scene... In winter, after a few lake events in november and december, Buffalo usually becomes a cloudy snowless desert. It's rather boring from mid january until march.. At least that was my experience.. Ya, you'd get your occasional clipper w/ 2-4 inches and some lake snow - 1-2 inche events but otherwise, just terrible cold and boring weather until early may... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I have to agree with William.. He's spot on w/ Buffalo, NY... It's a synoptic desert.. I went to school there for college and outside a few big lake snow events, it's a boring weather scene... In winter, after a few lake events in november and december, Buffalo usually becomes a cloudy snowless desert. It's rather boring from mid january until march.. At least that was my experience.. Ya, you'd get your occasional clipper w/ 2-4 inches and some lake snow - 1-2 inche events but otherwise, just terrible cold and boring weather until early may... There is a big gradient from the town soutwestward...the airport may get 90 inches per year on average...but as you head south and southwest into the higher areas of Chautauqua and Cattaraguas counties...annual snowfall reaches around 150" annually...very rare to have a December or January day w/o at least flurries in small hamlets like New Albion NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 There is a big gradient from the town soutwestward...the airport may get 90 inches per year on average...but as you head south and southwest into the higher areas of Chattaqua and Cattaraguas counties...annual snowfall reaches around 150" annually...very rare to have a December or January day w/o at least flurries in small hamlets like New Albion NY. Buffalo is oriented horribly for big lake effect snows -- problem for them is they need cold winds of WSWLY/SWLY direction which aren't nearly as common as the classic NWLY cold air advection events that rake locations south of town, as you correctly noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Buffalo is oriented horribly for big lake effect snows -- problem for them is they need cold winds of WSWLY/SWLY direction which aren't nearly as common as the classic NWLY cold air advection events that rake locations south of town, as you correctly noted. Strangely enough though Tom...the lake has such a modifying impact that it actually causes the prevailing wind in town to *be* WSW during the cold part of the year...up by Niagara Falls...that is the big loser with snowfall less than 50" per year...and Toronto, on the north shore of Lake Ontario is, of course, much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah Toronto is much worse. My wife is from Toronto and I've been there many times over the past 3 years in winters.. I have never seen more than some flurries. My wife lived there till April of last year and the Haloween storm of last year was the most she had seen ever. I remember driving up there morning of Dec 26th, 2010 before the snowmageddon came in late morning/noon.. and it was on news up there when I reached there.. and they were genuinely shocked at the amount of snow that was falling. That being said, it gets very cold up there.. much colder than here in Jersey.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Buffalo is oriented horribly for big lake effect snows -- problem for them is they need cold winds of WSWLY/SWLY direction which aren't nearly as common as the classic NWLY cold air advection events that rake locations south of town, as you correctly noted. I somewhat disagree.. Overall you are right, but it's actually not horribly located, if you want a very BIG event.. Generally, you are right, when you get a normal lake snow event, Buffalo and the North towns get 1-3", if that on a West North/West Flow... This flow can yield 2-3' over several days in the southtowns and ski country... The rate of snowfall is those events are usually 1-2" per hour.. However, when the wind does shift to a Southwest/West/Southwest Flow, the longer fetch over the lake usually enhances the rate of snowfall.. With a strong flow coming in from the Southwest, Buffalo, NY and points just north and south (Lackawanna, West Senaca, Clarence) receive up to 3-4' of snow in sometimes 24-36 hours.. With snow rates of 2-5" an hour. I was there I think it was December 10, 1995... for the epic snow event.. I was 18 at the time, and when I woke up that Sunday morning what I witnessed was something I had never seen before.. True white out conditions.. You couldn't see 2 feet in front of you.. We ended up w/ I think 24-48" throughout the buffalo area.. I was also there in 2000- The November event. However, the more ridiculous event was December of 2001 I think.. Buffalo saw 6-8 feet of snow in a week.. It was ridiculous.. I wasn't there for that though.. So Yes, Buffalo on the right wind direction is situated to get unreal snow events.. But generally speaking, the southtowns are where you want to be for constant lake snow.. Interestingly, I remember 2001/02 winter and it got cold I think at the end of december which cause the historic lake event in Buffalo.. I also remember JB hammering away how the pattern was going to change and well... It never did.. The winter on the east coast was a dud.. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Say goodbye to any shot of below normal temps for Dec . Models dont see the trough in the East thru Dec 20 . Compliments to DThe was the first one to call back 10 days ago a warmer than normal Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Say goodbye to any shot of below normal temps for Dec . Models dont see the trough in the East thru Dec 20 . Compliments to DThe was the first one to call back 10 days ago a warmer than normal Dec. DT? He said in his latest post that the east would experience a colder 2nd half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Say goodbye to any shot of below normal temps for Dec . Models dont see the trough in the East thru Dec 20 . Compliments to DThe was the first one to call back 10 days ago a warmer than normal Dec. December could be warmer than November. That's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Some of the analogs for this winter has a backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Some of the analogs for this winter has a backloaded winter. Isn't that what they all say when winter starts off warm and snowless and then we end up with a winter like 2011-2012. The similarities between the events of that winter and this one are uncanny, a hurricane, an early season snowstorm, then a torch in December. The biggest difference has been November but I really think Sandy had a lot to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 December could be warmer than November. That's interesting. yeh. possible. the pacific is driving ths pattetn. the trough gets pulled back everytime it makes a run towards the east coast. i just cant see where the turn is yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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