MJO812 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 You just posted last nite , you learned your lesson looking at 850 s It took 1 day , BL temps are in the mid 40`s , whats interesting ??? EDIT 40 First of all, no need for the attitude. Second, I just said it looks a little interesting. 1234ABC also posted about this yesterday. 40s at night? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 First of all, no need for the attitude. Second, I just said it looks a little interesting. 1234ABC also posted about this yesterday. 40s at night? I doubt it. 1 . its levity 2 . if you like drizzle , then i agree its interesting . 3. im only goin off what you posted " lesson learned " . cheers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Ant http://weather.admin.../fcstsound.html For winter weather top down p-type forecasting off GFS or NAM, choose 'Emagram'. One of the red taggers gave a little tutorial a couple years ago, and I was able to use this locally in the HOU area to predict an expected 2-5 inches of snow would actually be freezing drizzle (since the saturated layer, although thick, was only slightly colder than 0ºC). It got me some angry comments, we don't usually get much snow in HOU area. Later claims models didn't see warm layer, but both GFS and NAM were close, and did not suggest saturated temps at any level cold enough for crystal formation. Example below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Thanks for the link ed. I will bookmark that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 On Friday night the surface temps will be around 34-35 degrees at NYC. All layers above are forecast to be below freezing. Of course, we may not get any precipitation at all, but if we do, there is a good chance it would be flurries or light snow, even in the city. You just posted last nite , you learned your lesson looking at 850 s It took 1 day , BL temps are in the mid 40`s , whats interesting ??? EDIT 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 LI gets hit from the WAA precip on the 18z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 LI gets hit from the WAA precip on the 18z Nam Also gives the HV with C-2".. It is the NAM post 48hrs so taken with a grain of salt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Also gives the HV with C-2".. It is the NAM post 48hrs so taken with a grain of salt.. The SREF's also have precip for the area. Looks like inland areas have a chance of getting a light dusting. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Euro is bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 After a normal start temp wise this weekend , its a 5- 7 day stretch of above normal ,What i am worried about is i am seeing people forecasting a turn temp wise week 2- and beyond and i am not sure its correct . The PV is sitting in the Gulf of Alaska ALA last year , it sits and spins like a top pulling the mean trough back away from the east coast every time it retrogrades So where we will see cold pulses , they are goin to be short lived . I dont think we are goin to see sustained cold here until that PV is displaced . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Thanks for the link ed. I will bookmark that link. CVS is open, clearance sale of Halloween candy, and I imagine you'll be putting up the Chanukkah and Christmas cards and decorations. All is returning to as it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 NYC will finish colder than normal for autumn 2012 Sept-Nov. I doubt that's happened more than a handful of times in the past 10-15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The PV is sitting in the Gulf of Alaska ALA last year , it sits and spins like a top pulling the mean trough back away from the east coast every time it retrogrades So where we will see cold pulses , they are goin to be short lived . I dont think we are goin to see sustained cold here until that PV is displaced . Strongly disagree. The pattern in the Arctic/Alaskan region couldn't be more different than December 2011. That month featured a raging positive AO; we're about to fall down to -3 standard deviation in AO values. The key area is Alaska/NW Canada into the Arctic - if higher heights remain there, a good supply of arctic air from Siberia will be transported into North America. What's progged on current modelling is a Gulf of Alaska trough, which indicates a brief -PNA/+EPO surge, but it does not break down the arctic connection from Siberia. Last year featured no arctic connection into North America as low heights dominated all of AK into the arctic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The progged pattern for comparison purposes D 8-10 is nowhere near last year's disaster, arctic vortex from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 CVS is open, clearance sale of Halloween candy, and I imagine you'll be putting up the Chanukkah and Christmas cards and decorations. All is returning to as it should be. We already have Christmas decorations up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Strongly disagree. The pattern in the Arctic/Alaskan region couldn't be more different than December 2011. That month featured a raging positive AO; we're about to fall down to -3 standard deviation in AO values. The key area is Alaska/NW Canada into the Arctic - if higher heights remain there, a good supply of arctic air from Siberia will be transported into North America. What's progged on current modelling is a Gulf of Alaska trough, which indicates a brief -PNA/+EPO surge, but it does not break down the arctic connection from Siberia. Last year featured no arctic connection into North America as low heights dominated all of AK into the arctic region. I thnk the main difference this year is once the seasonal jet comes east off the asian continent the water in the pacific is warmer this year as it was last year ,so the POS EPO should break . I guess when I see a PV spinning its wheels , it makes me lose sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The progged pattern for comparison purposes D 8-10 is nowhere near last year's disaster, arctic vortex from hell. FWIW - wasn`t comparing this winter set up with lasts , the comment was the PV in the gulf of alaska retrogrades early next week , and pulls the trough back a few times as it just pulses cold air after day 10 - just want to see that PV either split away so the main V is released east so we get some sustainability , just the way i see it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Ant http://weather.admin.../fcstsound.html For winter weather top down p-type forecasting off GFS or NAM, choose 'Emagram'. One of the red taggers gave a little tutorial a couple years ago, and I was able to use this locally in the HOU area to predict an expected 2-5 inches of snow would actually be freezing drizzle (since the saturated layer, although thick, was only slightly colder than 0ºC). It got me some angry comments, we don't usually get much snow in HOU area. Later claims models didn't see warm layer, but both GFS and NAM were close, and did not suggest saturated temps at any level cold enough for crystal formation. Example below: How do you read these soundings? I always get my soundings from the text ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 How do you read these soundings? I always get my soundings from the text ones. http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_HowTo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 http://www.atmos.mil...kewT_HowTo.html Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 To me, this supposed long range warmth could look very different on the models in a few days. Yet because it is warmth, threads are created like it is etched in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Euro weeklies have a 1993-1994 look to them with a west to east flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 will be funny to watch you guys whine for the next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 will be funny to watch you guys whine for the next month People can find it very difficult to accept crappy outcomes. Personally I'm at peace as long as someone like Boston doesn't get slammed. Yea I'm petty like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 People can find it very difficult to accept crappy outcomes. Personally I'm at peace as long as someone like Boston doesn't get slammed. Yea I'm petty like that it's been feast or famine recently. there's still hope it can change by january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Meanwhile a little winter for us northerners.. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NYC AND LI SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. BUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF SATURATED LAYER THIS MAY BE MIXED WITH OR ENTIRELY LIGHT SNOW. SHORTFUSE ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR...TO LOWER TO MID 30S COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 will be funny to watch you guys whine for the next month I didn't know December is about to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I didn't know December is about to end It is just weather anyway. I like snow a lot, but it isn't exactly like I need it in my life. I was just also pointing out that we have long month ahead to get some snow possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I didn't know December is about to end i used the future tense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Interesting evolution on the long range euro for december 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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