SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Maybe because they havent come in yet. Some very underwhelming reports out of DC from the severe warned cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 everything looks on track to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Maybe because they havent come in yet. I'm basing my info from the posters in the Mid-Atlantic forum where the squall line rolled through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 everything looks on track to me are you not concerned about the lack of discrete convection and the low SB CAPE? Though perhaps the CAPE can still increase and I think the localized low-level convergence increase won't happen until around 20 or 21z...maybe that can help with our lift ahead of the line. But I still would have really liked more clearing and SB CAPE values of ~1000 J/KG right now. The 0z NAM last night had SB CAPE values above 1000 J/KG for us at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 DCA gusts 61 mph....... I'm basing my info from the posters in the Mid-Atlantic forum where the squall line rolled through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Its the convergence issue more than CAPE. There are not even very low clouds yet. Obviously we are not tapping anything yet. The CAPE thats there is enough if we increase the convergence which will happen later this afternoon. are you not concerned about the lack of discrete convection and the low SB CAPE? Though perhaps the CAPE can still increase and I think the localized low-level convergence increase won't happen until around 20 or 21z...maybe that can help with our lift ahead of the line. But I still would have really liked more clearing and SB CAPE values of ~1000 J/KG right now. The 0z NAM last night had SB CAPE values above 1000 J/KG for us at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Its the convergence issue more than CAPE. There are not even very low clouds yet. Obviously we are not tapping anything yet. The CAPE thats there is enough if we increase the convergence which will happen later this afternoon. Right. The 00z NAM forecast last night had localized increases in low-level vorticity at around 21z in E NJ/NYC/western LI. That might help. I'm definitely not giving up yet, but the NAM last night did show clearing and higher SB CAPE...it would be nice to not have to rely completely on the convergence and to have gotten help from the CAPE/instability like what the NAM was showing last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 TORNADO WATCH 646 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-005-009-190300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0646.120918T1940Z-120919T0300Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD NEW HAVEN MAC003-190300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0646.120918T1940Z-120919T0300Z/ MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-059-079-083-091-093-095-103- 111-113-115-119-190300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0646.120918T1940Z-120919T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER MONTGOMERY NASSAU PUTNAM RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SUFFOLK ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON WESTCHESTER ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355-190300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0646.120918T1940Z-120919T0300Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Aaaaaaaaaand I have sun! Winds are consistently gusting in the 40's certainly not damaging but nice none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Sun making a brief appearance here in Upton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I like the appearance of the line of storms over Eastern PA this past half hour. It will be interesting to see if they push east into West/Central New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I like the appearance of the line of storms over Eastern PA this past half hour. It will be interesting to see if they push east into West/Central New Jersey. I think the line further south from MD into northern VA is the one we need to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I like the appearance of the line of storms over Eastern PA this past half hour. It will be interesting to see if they push east into West/Central New Jersey. Entering the environment of strong wind shear, will be interesting to see if the line begins to push out and bow. Although lowering the likelihood of tornados, it would increase the chance of more widespread severe and damaging straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 this makes more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I think the line further south from MD into northern VA is the one we need to keep an eye on. I think that might be too far south. The area of convection from N MD into Southeast PA has taken on an east-northeast trajectory. Now there's even some discrete stuff ahead of it moving north. It will be interesting to see if the strengthening low level jet triggers more precipitation around the line and forces it to become englufed. *Edited for north/south typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 423 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... EASTERN LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ALLENTOWN... NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EASTON... SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I think that might be too far north. The area of convection from N MD into Southeast PA has taken on an east-northeast trajectory. Now there's even some discrete stuff ahead of it moving north. It will be interesting to see if the strengthening low level jet triggers more precipitation around the line and forces it to become englufed. The line in southeast Pa. / northern Md. might hold on in it's intensity. Anything that has developed east ahead of the squall line thru central NY and central/eastern Pa has not intensifed into descrete cells as of yet. The winds have picked up here in the Hudson valley to being sustained in the mid 20's and the gusts are more frequent into the mid 30's here. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...DE...NJ...S-CNTRL/ERN NY...WRN CT...WRN MA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 643...645...646... VALID 182021Z - 182215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 643...645...646...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 643...645...AND 646. DISCUSSION...THE SVR THREAT ACROSS WW/S 643/645/646 IS EVOLVING IN TWO REGIMES: /1/ ONE REGIME IS ALONG A SHALLOW SQUALL LINE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SWD INTO S-CNTRL NY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR NRN PA. AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH 50-55 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR AND ELONGATED/LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER AREA VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH THE EWD-ADVANCING LINE. /2/ THE OTHER REGIME IS WITHIN THE BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LEADING THE SQUALL LINE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4 MB PER 2 HRS OVER NERN NY/NRN VT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION NWD -- MLCAPE OF 250 TO 500 J/KG -- IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE OWING TO THE INFLUX OF RICHER/MARINE-LAYER MOISTURE. SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS EVOLVING IN BOTH LINEAR SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODES. ..COHEN.. 09/18/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 38677574 39617634 40167641 41287606 42807563 43417531 43957504 43997443 43687368 43367344 42867328 42487318 41907296 41437246 41257217 41047204 40867244 40557320 40157338 39737365 39077401 38587474 38677574 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 EHI numbers coming up, with CAPE surge over Central and Southern NJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The LLJ increasing in strength is making the boundary layer more moist, helping to increase our SB CAPE without sunshine. It might not be enough, but it's an improvement...1000 + J/KG in lots of S NJ and heading for Long Island. Maybe now is our window for discrete cells? They would probably start to form in S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 It almost feels like the few hours as Irene was passing to our West here in SE Nassau (Wantagh). SSE winds gusting into the 40's to near 50 right on the water. Granted the winds during Irene at the point were slightly stronger it has that same general feel. Irene also did a good jo tree trimming any trees with a weak South facing side so we are seeing less branches down then normal for wind of this strength and direction during full leaf season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 55mph gust on Coney Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 winds have increased dramatically over the past 1/2 hour. Numerous trees down (mostly dead or dying stuff for now) around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds have really picked up here in the last 30 minutes. You can see precipitation flying north through NJ now and some individual cells developing ahead of the main line near Philadelphia. Pretty clear stregthening of the low level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 54 mph wind gust in Merrick (Nassau Co) ..2 large limbs down. The falls coincided with that gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 winds are insane outside on my 17th floor balcony....easily gusting to 50+. Wish I had a handheld anemometer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 54 mph wind gust in Merrick (Nassau Co) ..2 large limbs down. The falls coincided with that gust. where in merrick are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Multiple gusts past 50 mph..2 miles from the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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