winterwarlock Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 IMBY: .31 on the day and most of the day has just been cloudy warm humid muggy and windy with no rain at all after 8 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds picked u A LOT last 10 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Had a wind gust to 45 mph without any shower activity on the south shore of nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I wonder why the SPC didn't upgrade the risk over NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Where are my tornadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Where are my tornadoes? 5,000 feet above our heads, literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds have really kicked up here over the past half hour and the clouds have managed to move even faster than earlier. Small branches are being snapped off every few minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Where are my tornadoes? que the bust calls. but in all seriousness the winds have defiantly picked up over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Still its a strugle to get more than 500 j/kg of CAPE into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 As I said before, its not supposed to be at its max over us until later this evening. If you actually look at the SPC cape change, you can see it has been slowly increasing through the day. Still its a strugle to get more than 500 j/kg of CAPE into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Squall line developing near DC NAM suggested that the NVA stuff would head this way later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 maybe someone can explain how you get a severe thunderstorm with little or no lightning? BUT thunder ? 150 WUUS51 KPHI 181732 SVRPHI PAC011-077-181815- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0218.120918T1732Z-120918T1815Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 215 PM EDT * AT 128 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW TRIPOLI TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOMELSDORF...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEHIGHTON TO 15 MILES NORTH OF LANCASTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHOEMAKERSVILLE...LENHARTSVILLE...WERNERSVILLE...JORDAN VALLEY... SINKING SPRING...WYOMISSING...LEESPORT...EMERALD...LAURELDALE... SLATINGTON...FLEETWOOD...NEFFS...LYONS...SCHNECKSVILLE... KUTZTOWN...COFFEETOWN...CLAUSSVILLE AND TOPTON PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THIS LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO HEAR THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Because its convection, and it doesnt have to have lightning to fit the criteria to issue a severe thunderstorm warning. There are no non-thunderstorm short fused warnings. maybe someone can explain how you get a severe thunderstorm with little or no lightning? BUT thunder ? 150 WUUS51 KPHI 181732 SVRPHI PAC011-077-181815- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0218.120918T1732Z-120918T1815Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 215 PM EDT * AT 128 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW TRIPOLI TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOMELSDORF...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEHIGHTON TO 15 MILES NORTH OF LANCASTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHOEMAKERSVILLE...LENHARTSVILLE...WERNERSVILLE...JORDAN VALLEY... SINKING SPRING...WYOMISSING...LEESPORT...EMERALD...LAURELDALE... SLATINGTON...FLEETWOOD...NEFFS...LYONS...SCHNECKSVILLE... KUTZTOWN...COFFEETOWN...CLAUSSVILLE AND TOPTON PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THIS LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO HEAR THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The cloud tops are not high enough for lightning. And the best theta-E advection appears to be in the Delmarva and SE NJ, and also another area in Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Still its a strugle to get more than 500 j/kg of CAPE into the area Yeah, but I'm hoping this helps us, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The HRRR model is depicting an increase in SBCAPE tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looking at the satellite, you can see that the best clearing is off the Jersey Coast, which is one reason why the SB CAPE values are higher on the ocean. Hopefully that clearing can work its way into the NYC Metro area. Without any clearing, I'm not sure we can get high enough SB CAPE for surface-based discrete convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 It looks like that area of pre-frontal convection in Delaware could be on its way up here in the next few hours... That is where I would really look for damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 HRRR develops a line of discrete cells right before a decent CAPE advection gets the NYC area up to 1000 joules or so. 2 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 DISCUSSION...WAA LEADING A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DESPITE VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY...WITH LITTLE/NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION/LINE SEGMENTS FROM ADAMS COUNTY INTO LEHIGH COUNTY IN PA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND NEWD ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF ERN PA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES OF CONCERN. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE CONFLUENCE AXIS...THOUGH CONTINUED MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS AXIS MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONFLUENCE-RELATED CONVECTION WITH A CORRESPONDING SVR THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 DISCUSSION...WAA LEADING A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DESPITE VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY...WITH LITTLE/NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION/LINE SEGMENTS FROM ADAMS COUNTY INTO LEHIGH COUNTY IN PA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND NEWD ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF ERN PA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES OF CONCERN. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE CONFLUENCE AXIS...THOUGH CONTINUED MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS AXIS MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONFLUENCE-RELATED CONVECTION WITH A CORRESPONDING SVR THREAT. Our best winds are now till around 10pm, I dont have much if any hope for winds with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 TPHL radar is indicating a strong couplet right near Spring Mount, PA. Perhaps a tornado warning will be issued there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Power just flickered here at home, back on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The rain will be here well before 10pm Our best winds are now till around 10pm, I dont have much if any hope for winds with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Some very underwhelming reports out of DC from the severe warned cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Sun is trying really hard to poke out here. I'm hoping that I'm east enough for some clearing but west enough for lift and any convection to hit. But the SB CAPE values are really pretty low. They need to spike up quickly, otherwise we will not see much discrete convection and the mode will be linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The rain will be here well before 10pm yea but best winds are ahead of the line, not in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 18Z MSLP dew point temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 disagree there. Those QPF maps are six hour ending. I would be shocked if the winds are weaker when the rain is heaviest. yea but best winds are ahead of the line, not in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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