Metsfan Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 yes but during the last event dews were in the mid 70s, it makes a pretty big difference. This will not be so much of a problem. Thoughout the day moisture will increase with the southerly LLJ jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Can someone just give me a quick lesson on wind and temperature inversion? If there is a lack of a temperature inversion, the winds just above the surface have more of a chance to mix down to the surface to cause windier conditions? What exactly are the mechanics on why some wind events flourish and others never pan out? Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Papa Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Raining here in Ridgewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wind driven heavy rain in Brooklyn, looks very tropical outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 12Z 925 mb wind speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Gotta like the look of the lines of embedded convection west of DCA..that could become a big player later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Gotta like the look of the lines of embedded convection west of DCA..that could become a big player later. yup, especially if we start to see some more sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I've got sweet suite tickets for tonight's Philly/Mets game at 7pm. I can assume a rain out rather than a rain delay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Here at the Battery, which does terrifically in southerly wind events (e.g., lots of tree damage in Irene) winds are already gusting into the 30's. We'd helped, of course, by the nice expanse of warm water to our south and the wall of buildings which tends to deflect the winds just off the deck to the ground, so I'm not sure how "fair" the winds are. Already plenty of twigs/ very small branches down in Jeanette Park, as this is a lot of wind for leafed-out trees to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Jeez, helicity is already up to 400 s2/m2, shear is 45 kt, and SigTor values are up to 1 for NYC. Also, the 11z HRRR shows up to 1500 of SBCAPE all the way up to CT for later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 12z 4km NAM takes whatever junk develops in NC/VA today and shoots it on this way by 1z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 14Z MSLP and dew point temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 New MD. 80% chance of Tornado Watch issued soon: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN DE...ERN PA...NJ..SE NY...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181514Z - 181645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN DE...ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND WRN CT THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP AS STORMS ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN RESPONSE...WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...A LARGE CANOPY OF RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS FROM CNTRL NY SWD INTO NRN VA WITH SOME REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT SHOWING UP ACROSS CNTRL PA AND WRN MD. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LINED UP DIRECTLY ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET WITH ABOUT 60 KT OF FLOW EVIDENT ON THE STERLING AND STATE COLLEGE WSR-88D VWPS. THIS JET FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF NEWARK AND NEW YORK CITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...CELLS WITHIN THE LINE MAY BEGIN TO ROTATE AND A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. AS THE LINE ORGANIZES AND SFC TEMPS WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/18/2012 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... http://www.spc.ncep..../md/md1959.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Holy crap Very impressive MDT risk coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just had a nice heavy but extremely brief rain shower move through. Definitely some solid mixing going on as it gusted into the 40's during the shower with small branches flying through the air. If this is a sign of things to come later I think Upton should have went with the HWW to cover gusts to 60 during heavy convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 GfS seems to have the heaviest coming in late this afternoon, with the NAM having it occur a few hours later. Based on the radar I would tend to think the heaviest will start moving in around rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tornado watch has been issued to our South already goes up to southern jersy bill eevans says thats what's coming our way you guys think the watch gets extended North to our area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tornado watch has been issued to our South already goes up to southern jersy bill eevans says thats what's coming our way you guys think the watch gets extended North to our area?? Yes. Probably within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tornado watch has been issued to our South already goes up to southern jersy bill eevans says thats what's coming our way you guys think the watch gets extended North to our area?? see the mesoscale discussion posted above. 80% chance of tornado watch issuance. It means as gkrangers said that it'll likely be issued soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 TOR watch just issued for NYC/NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 If you read above you'll see they noted there's an 80% chance that a watch will be issued for our area Tornado watch has been issued to our South already goes up to southern jersy bill eevans says thats what's coming our way you guys think the watch gets extended North to our area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Is it possible for people to read posts before posting? As this event unfolds this thread will get even more busy. Please try to read before posting questions that are already answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 We've had storm warnings and are under a torndao watch down here, but no one is talking about it in the southeast forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 we are still strugling to advect CAPE northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 This was not hte time it was supposed to be here. The cape increases out here much later this afternoon. we are still strugling to advect CAPE northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 WT 0643 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 50% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 WT 0643 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 50% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90% What area does this affect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 As of 12:30 -No storms in the immediate area http://www.wundergro...99&avg_off=9999 and severe reports mainly down in Wash/Balt zones http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 What area does this affect? MDT risk is west of the NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Sorry I saw the post about the 80% chance I meant to say would it likely be issued for long island witch I see now the answer is no were the only place not in the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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