winterwarlock Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 what are we looking at in the way of rain showers in the morning....would like to sneak some work in tomorrow...will there be overnight showers ending in the morning than a break until late afternoon? Forecasters arent very clear as to the timing of this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The NAM actualy tries to show this as it pokes the CAPE up into the south shore and NYC. We are getting good WAA now and my dew just hit 60 Yup, it's certainly trying. Hopefully it's enough, because if it is... But I'm still a bit concerned that ~750 J/KG of SB CAPE with okay but not great lapse rates near the surface will not produce strong enough updrafts to mesh with the LLJ too well...perhaps some updrafts will get sheared apart. Though I guess it's an isolated threat for a reason. Looking for isolated higher CAPE pockets with the mesoanalysis might be an important tool to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm under a HWW but my local forecast mentions wind gusts of 35 mph tomorrow and up to 45 tomorrow night, which wouldn't really warrant a warning. Mt Holly went with advisories in the adjacent counties with the same wind speeds Warning to cover the potential for any convective damaging winds (probably isolated though) Region wide I think its more a high end advisory event. Allot of gusts in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That was the strongest southerly wind event that I can remember living in Long Beach. It was 11-11-95. Right before the front crossed the area Saturday night, winds were gusting 70-75 mph. Shingles were blowing off many roofs and there were fairly steady power flashes. I believe much of Long Beach west of National lost power into Sunday. I was at the Islanders game that night, I remember the marina near my house had serious damage to alot of the boats because the tide was about 2 feet above normal and some of the boats snapped off the pilings. There was another nasty system in 2003 that was very similar, I believe the NW winds the next day caused the Staten Island ferry incident. I recall losing power around 2-3am and the winds easily were 50-60 mph...a mini ridge built in behind the frontal passage and we had an eery calm before the strong NW'lies started by mid morning. You can see here how strong the 11/1995 system was with the negative tilted trof and 1032mb high out in the Atlantic... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us1112.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 When was the big wind event in March a few years ago? When JFK had multiple hours of wind gusts in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 When was the big wind event in March a few years ago? When JFK had multiple hours of wind gusts in the 60s. There was the March 13, 2010 event. Pretty sure JFK had hurricane force gusts on two separate hourly METARs IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 When was the big wind event in March a few years ago? When JFK had multiple hours of wind gusts in the 60s. 3/13/10. One of the most impressive weather events I've seen here. Winds easily beat Irene-we probably had a gust or two up to 80 mph. What's crazy was how isolated it was since much of the area just had a regular windy/rainy day. For the South Shore, it was very damaging. Numerous trees/power lines were down all over the place here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I wonder what tornado probs. the SPC will give us tomorrow. Probably a non-hatched 10% area for us with a non-hatched 15% area SW of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 3/13/10. One of the most impressive weather events I've seen here. Winds easily beat Irene-we probably had a gust or two up to 80 mph. What's crazy was how isolated it was since much of the area just had a regular windy/rainy day. For the South Shore, it was very damaging. Numerous trees/power lines were down all over the place here. on trees with no leaves, still mad I missed that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 3/13/10. One of the most impressive weather events I've seen here. Winds easily beat Irene-we probably had a gust or two up to 80 mph. What's crazy was how isolated it was since much of the area just had a regular windy/rainy day. For the South Shore, it was very damaging. Numerous trees/power lines were down all over the place here. Such an interesting storm. South shore of LI and lower Fairfield Co/Westchester were pummeled. Unlike Dec 92 when LGA was blitzed the cold SSTs in March helped stabilize the boundary layer a bit on the north shore and resulted in less wind with the ENE flow. The opposite situation occurred in Dec 92 when rekatively warm SSTs in the sound helped mix down some higher gusts on the north shore/LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wow! If that verifies, watch out for ugly supercell tornadoes!! Much more SB CAPE than the 18z NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The helicity and SB CAPE look even better at 21z, but I'm not sure the mode will still allow for any discrete cells at that point...might be too linear by then, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 CAPE is noticably higher on this run of the NAM, wonder if that translates to better mixing of the LLJ...NAM pushes CAPE higher than 1k into NYC and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 CAPE is noticably higher on this run of the NAM, wonder if that translates to better mixing of the LLJ...NAM pushes CAPE higher than 1k into NYC and Long Island Well it's faster too which may give you the result you are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The helicity and SB CAPE look even better at 21z, but I'm not sure the mode will still allow for any discrete cells at that point...might be too linear by then, but we'll see. Does this run indicate any EML by then? We also need to have lower convergence and a bit of a cap to maintain discrete cells. I also wonder what the SigTor values are for us in this run, since I'm on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 You dont really need a cap when it comes to low-topped rotating updrafts/supercells and quick spin-ups Does this run indicate any EML by then? We also need to have lower convergence and a bit of a cap to maintain discrete cells. I also wonder what the SigTor values are for us in this run, since I'm on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Does this run indicate any EML by then? We also need to have lower convergence and a bit of a cap to maintain discrete cells. I also wonder what the SigTor values are for us in this run, since I'm on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I wonder what tornado probs. the SPC will give us tomorrow. Probably a non-hatched 10% area for us with a non-hatched 15% area SW of NYC? I'd be pretty surprised by that. 15% is mod risk for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Does this run indicate any EML by then? We also need to have lower convergence and a bit of a cap to maintain discrete cells. I also wonder what the SigTor values are for us in this run, since I'm on mobile. I'm not exactly sure how the SigTor parameter really works, but my guess is that since they probably have better CAPE and low-level lapse rates, the threat for a significant tornado in those areas would be increased compared to our area. Some of their soundings also show a tad bit more of directional and speed shear as well. However, it's not like we're really looking at "significant" tornadoes per-se...weak EF0 and EF1 spinups is what I think is the threat. Considering we have little to no CAP, SB CAPE values potentially exceeding 1000 J/KG via great moisture advection from the Atlantic, exceptional low-level shear and helicity with a strong LLJ, and a layer of dry air from 850mb to 700mb that might allow for some clearing, it is certainly possible for low DBZ and low topped supercells with EF0 and EF1 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 You dont really need a cap when it comes to low-topped rotating updrafts/supercells and quick spin-ups You don't want any CAP. Otherwise there would be little to no organized surface-based parcel convection. If there was any CAP, the discrete supercell threat would essentially be negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Such an interesting storm. South shore of LI and lower Fairfield Co/Westchester were pummeled. Unlike Dec 92 when LGA was blitzed the cold SSTs in March helped stabilize the boundary layer a bit on the north shore and resulted in less wind with the ENE flow. The opposite situation occurred in Dec 92 when rekatively warm SSTs in the sound helped mix down some higher gusts on the north shore/LGA. It was just incredible-all I could hear for hours on end was the wind roaring, crackling from power lines, and fire engines. That wind roar was amazing, not sure I've ever heard that before. There were trees/branches littered just everywhere afterward. But it was such a crazy dividing line between the destruction we had vs. nothing a few miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I wonder what tornado probs. the SPC will give us tomorrow. Probably a non-hatched 10% area for us with a non-hatched 15% area SW of NYC? 10% at most, and south of the NYC metro in all likelihood, unless instability takes a turn for the more foreboding, it'll probably stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I think the higher severe probailities and/or hatching on the SPC should extend no farther north than around Staten Island's latitude. The instability parameters on most guidance north of that area are extremely meager. The best juxtaposition of favorable shear (including low level shear/0-1km helicity at 00z) and instability may occur around Southeast PA and points slightly south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 So you think the forcing, shear in combination with 750 to 1000 SBCAPE over the city and LI is too little for a higher probability? I think the higher severe probailities and/or hatching on the SPC should extend no farther north than around Staten Island's latitude. The instability parameters on most guidance north of that area are extremely meager. The best juxtaposition of favorable shear (including low level shear/0-1km helicity at 00z) and instability may occur around Southeast PA and points slightly south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 So you think the forcing, shear in combination with 750 to 1000 SBCAPE over the city and LI is too little for a higher probability? 00z NAM JFK sounding valid for 21z. SB CAPE is 1226.4 J/KG. That would definitely suffice. Not to mention that the sounding is also pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 So you think the forcing, shear in combination with 750 to 1000 SBCAPE over the city and LI is too little for a higher probability? No, I just think the highest probability for severe weather would be over the area I outlined..not the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Potentially completely unrelated but for the 9/8 event 24-48 hrs prior cape was modeled slightly lower then what eventually verified, which had huge implications for tornado/severe weather risk in the morning and afternoon. If that sbcape at JFK verifies with low level wind shear as it is I assume this too will have huge implications tmrw with how far north the tornado risk is. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I think the higher severe probailities and/or hatching on the SPC should extend no farther north than around Staten Island's latitude. The instability parameters on most guidance north of that area are extremely meager. The best juxtaposition of favorable shear (including low level shear/0-1km helicity at 00z) and instability may occur around Southeast PA and points slightly south of there. For the general probability forecast from the SPC, I agree with you. But I do think the tornado threat is increasing as well for S NJ and into the NYC Metro/western LI areas in the post 18z period through maybe 21 or 22z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bklnwx1 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 from the March 2010 event: 000 NOUS41 KOKX 170147 AAA PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-170934- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 946 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS TAKEN FOR THE STORM THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS ...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS RAINFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BRIDGEPORT 3.94 400 PM 3/15 ASOS DANBURY 3.76 800 AM 3/16 ASOS SHELTON 3.72 715 AM 3/14 PUBLIC ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... DEEP RIVER 5.02 530 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER CLINTON 3.90 845 AM 3/14 PUBLIC ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... MERIDEN 4.01 155 PM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW HAVEN/TWEED 3.86 800 AM 3/16 ASOS BRANFORD 3.20 1245 PM 3/14 PUBLIC CHESHIRE 3.02 917 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER MERIDEN 3.00 800 AM 3/16 ASOS ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... NORWICH 4.70 645 AM 3/14 NWS COOP OLD LYME 4.26 1140 PM 3/14 PUBLIC GROTON 4.00 600 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER GALES FERRY 3.59 843 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER GROTON/NEW LONDON 2.74 800 AM 3/15 ASOS NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... OAKLAND 4.10 930 AM 3/14 PUBLIC RAMSEY 3.83 830 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER LYNDHURST 3.82 1100 PM 3/15 PUBLIC RIDGEWOOD 3.52 1100 AM 3/16 SKYWARN SPOTTER GARFIELD 3.33 310 PM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIDGEWOOD 3.27 530 PM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER LODI 3.11 1206 PM 3/14 PUBLIC TENAFLY 3.01 630 AM 3/15 PUBLIC RIVERVALE 3.00 633 AM 3/14 PUBLIC TETERBORO 2.90 200 AM 3/16 ASOS ...ESSEX COUNTY... NEWARK 5.19 200 AM 3/16 ASOS CALDWELL 4.06 200 AM 3/16 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... HARRISON 4.64 605 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER KEARNY 3.64 1200 AM 3/15 PUBLIC ...PASSAIC COUNTY... WAYNE 3.17 1200 PM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER HAWTHORNE 3.13 400 AM 3/16 COCORHAS ...UNION COUNTY... ELIZABETH 7.66 1100 PM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER ROSELLE PARK 7.21 200 PM 3/15 PUBLIC NEW YORK ...BRONX COUNTY... BRONX 3.67 400 PM 3/15 MESONET(PS 360) ...KINGS COUNTY... BROOKLYN 4.50 400 PM 3/15 MESONET(JUAN MOREL CAMPOS) ...NASSAU COUNTY... EAST MEADOW 5.31 1201 AM 3/16 PUBLIC MILL NECK 5.02 800 AM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER MUTTONTOWN 4.27 1100 PM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER HARBOR ISLE 3.95 920 AM 3/15 PUBLIC LIDO BEACH 3.90 400 PM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER FLORAL PARK 3.56 800 AM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER CARLE PLACE 3.36 800 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER MALVERNE 2.92 500 AM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...NEW YORK COUNTY... NYC/CENTRAL PARK 4.64 1200 AM 3/16 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... HARRIMAN 6.20 530 AM 3/16 PUBLIC MIDDLETOWN 2.65 1000 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER MONTGOMERY 2.63 800 PM 3/15 ASOS GOSHEN 2.45 949 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER HAMPTONBURGH 2.42 830 AM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER WESTTOWN 2.16 1100 PM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...QUEENS COUNTY... SOUTH OZONE PARK 4.30 800 PM 3/15 PUBLIC NYC/LA GUARDIA 3.73 1200 AM 3/16 ASOS NYC/JFK ARPT 2.88 400 PM 3/15 ASOS ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... NANUET 4.18 555 PM 3/15 MESONET ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... MOUNT SINAI 4.93 700 AM 3/16 NWS EMPLOYEE EAST SETAUKET 4.50 320 AM 3/14 PUBLIC MELVILLE 4.50 1200 PM 3/14 PUBLIC BAITING HOLLOW 4.17 1030 AM 3/14 PUBLIC LINDENHURST 4.02 830 PM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER HOLTSVILLE 3.90 800 AM 3/14 PUBLIC UPTON 3.68 200 AM 3/16 NWS OFFICE MONTAUK 3.66 200 PM 3/15 ASOS STONY BROOK 3.62 150 PM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER ORIENT 3.51 450 PM 3/15 PUBLIC AMITYVILLE 3.40 145 PM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER CENTERPORT 3.38 700 AM 3/14 PUBLIC SHIRLEY 3.12 800 AM 3/16 ASOS ISLIP 3.07 400 PM 3/15 ASOS CENTEREACH 2.33 1230 PM 3/14 NWS EMPLOYEE FARMINGDALE 2.26 800 AM 3/15 ASOS ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... OSSINING 4.50 1216 PM 3/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER WHITE PLAINS 3.09 1050 PM 3/15 SKYWARN SPOTTER ***********************PEAK WIND GUST*********************** LOCATION PEAK WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS GUST OF (MPH) MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... NORWALK 65 515 PM 3/13 PUBLIC BRIDGEPORT 60 430 PM 3/13 NWS COOP WESTPORT 58 320 PM 3/13 MESONET DANBURY 40 654 PM 3/13 ASOS ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... NEW HAVEN/TWEED 46 505 PM 3/13 ASOS MERIDEN 36 752 PM 3/13 ASOS ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON/NEW LONDON 59 812 PM 3/13 ASOS NOANK 41 804 PM 3/13 MESONET NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... FORT LEE 66 634 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER TETERBORO 59 743 PM 3/13 ASOS BERGENFIELD 52 605 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER TENAFLY 51 730 PM 3/13 COCORHAS ...ESSEX COUNTY... CALDWELL 55 605 PM 3/13 ASOS NEWARK 45 844 PM 3/13 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... ROBINS REEF 78 718 PM 3/13 ELEVATION 236 FT HARRISON 55 1125 PM 3/13 SPOTTER JERSEY CITY 50 621 AM 3/13 MESONET BAYONNE 41 525 AM 3/13 MESONET KEARNY 41 339 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW YORK ...BRONX COUNTY... PELHAM BAY PARK 55 515 PM 3/13 PUBLIC ...KINGS COUNTY... BOROUGH PARK 65 900 PM 3/13 PUBLIC ...NASSAU COUNTY... JONES BEACH ISLAND 68 610 PM 3/13 COAST GUARD MESONET MERRICK 68 255 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER WANTAGH 67 327 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER BAYVILLE 64 435 PM 3/13 MESONET VALLEY STREAM 56 426 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER MALVERNE 54 515 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...NEW YORK COUNTY... NYC/CENTRAL PARK 53 345 PM 3/13 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... MONTGOMERY 39 713 PM 3/13 ASOS ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/JFK ARPT 75 833 PM 3/13 ASOS BREEZY POINT 67 330 PM 3/13 MESONET FAR ROCKAWAY 64 458 PM 3/13 MESONET NYC/LA GUARDIA 48 1001 PM 3/13 ASOS ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... BLUE POINT 69 934 PM 3/13 MESONET EAST MORICHES 68 920 PM 3/13 COAST GUARD MESONET FIRE ISLAND 67 700 PM 3/13 MESONET AMITY HARBOR 66 621 PM 3/13 MESONET MECOX 65 1120 PM 3/13 MESONET PATCHOGUE 64 710 PM 3/13 PUBLIC (TIME ESTIMATED) GREAT GULL ISLAND 63 956 PM 3/13 MESONET ISLIP 62 612 PM 3/13 ASOS FARMINGDALE 60 636 PM 3/13 ASOS LINDENHURST 60 450 PM 3/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER NAPEAGUE 58 1255 AM 3/14 MESONET SHIRLEY 56 340 PM 3/13 ASOS WESTHAMPTON BEACH 55 502 PM 3/13 ASOS EAST SETAUKET 53 445 PM 3/13 PUBLIC SOUTHAMPTON 53 625 PM 3/13 MESONET BAITING HOLLOW 51 1200 AM 3/14 PUBLIC EAST HAMPTON 50 555 PM 3/13 MESONET FISHERS ISLAND 47 1105 AM 3/13 MESONET ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WHITE PLAINS 62 629 PM 3/13 ASOS LARCHMONT 58 710 PM 3/13 HARBOR MESONET $$ 3/13/10. One of the most impressive weather events I've seen here. Winds easily beat Irene-we probably had a gust or two up to 80 mph. What's crazy was how isolated it was since much of the area just had a regular windy/rainy day. For the South Shore, it was very damaging. Numerous trees/power lines were down all over the place here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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