Quincy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 High Wind Watch has been posted for pretty much all of the BGM CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Fig. B: Is the key for this standard deviations? Exactly. This situation has some similarities to last Saturday's event. Remember, the tornadoes with that storm happened in the morning, WELL ahead of the cold front/convective line. Yeah, NWS Albany just mentioned it in their AFD. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=ALY&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Albany As for rainfall totals...850mb/925mb south-southeast winds of Standard deviations of greater than 5 will be over the region for a few hours in the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 HWW posted for the Upton CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 High wind watch just issued by upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012 ...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 180400- /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.120918T1600Z-120919T1000Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS...HIGH WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH POSSIBLE. * TIMING...HIGHEST THREAT POTENTIAL IS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK CITY AND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TO THE EAST. THIS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES WITH POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 we'll see if it verifies....alot of times the winds fail to arrive with a HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Well its just a watch right now. They'll upgrade to a warning or make it an advisory tomorrow morning most likely. we'll see if it verifies....alot of times the winds fail to arrive with a HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 the LLJ, CAPE, and lack of an inversion tells me this is probably a slam dunk in terms of synoptic wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 New NAM seems to bring the line to upstate NY. what do you guys think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 It's cool too see moisture from the invest yesterday getting entrained into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 the LLJ, CAPE, and lack of an inversion tells me this is probably a slam dunk in terms of synoptic wind We have seen so many HWW events with this setup fail in winter and spring due to inversion. Water temps in the low to mid 70s are going to really reduce the inversion. The strongest South wind event I can remember on the South Shore of LI occurred in early November in the mid 90's. Water temps in that event were also relatively high. I remember driving down Ocean pkwy with my Dad and they were plowing the sand off the road! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Upton has a solid forecast discussion. They discuss the lack of an inversion and as forky said before a true synoptic (possibly convective earlier in the day) high wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 We have seen so many HWW events with this setup fail in winter and spring due to inversion. Water temps in the low to mid 70s are going to really reduce the inversion. The strongest South wind event I can remember on the South Shore of LI occurred in early November in the mid 90's. Water temps in that event were also relatively high. I remember driving down Ocean pkwy with my Dad and they were plowing the sand off the road! That was the strongest southerly wind event that I can remember living in Long Beach. It was 11-11-95. Right before the front crossed the area Saturday night, winds were gusting 70-75 mph. Shingles were blowing off many roofs and there were fairly steady power flashes. I believe much of Long Beach west of National lost power into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 That was the strongest southerly wind event that I can remember living in Long Beach. It was 11-11-95. Right before the front crossed the area Saturday night, winds were gusting 70-75 mph. Shingles were blowing off many roofs and there were fairly steady power flashes. I believe much of Long Beach west of National lost power into Sunday. do you see as severe a wind threat as that tommorow? looks pretty ominous to say the least. areas near the coast outside of convection i can see still gusting to 55-60 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 do you see as severe a wind threat as that tommorow? looks pretty ominous to say the least. areas near the coast outside of convection i can see still gusting to 55-60 mph Certainly 50-55 mph gusts just due to the anomalous LLJ, warm SST's, and lack inversion. We have a shot at 60 mph plus should the squall during evening come through our area without breaking up or weakening. We'll also have to watch for rotation in the WAA convection during the day and embedded meso potential at night should the line stay strong through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I was in State College when the front came through and we had 80 mph gusts. Temps went from 60 to 33 and we had an inch of snow on the ground 3 hours later. 3 days after that we had almost 18" of snow with most of the trees still having full foliage. It basically ushered in 2 months of unrelenting winter weather That was the strongest southerly wind event that I can remember living in Long Beach. It was 11-11-95. Right before the front crossed the area Saturday night, winds were gusting 70-75 mph. Shingles were blowing off many roofs and there were fairly steady power flashes. I believe much of Long Beach west of National lost power into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I was in State College when the front came through and we had 80 mph gusts. Temps went from 60 to 33 and we had an inch of snow on the ground 3 hours later. 3 days after that we had almost 18" of snow with most of the trees still having full foliage. It basically ushered in 2 months of unrelenting winter weather I remember vividly hearing about that storm on The Weather Channel, wishing I was where you were and getting blasted by the snow. Of course, we got hammered here as well, but by the warm side of the storm. Was still only 9 years old then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah it was nuts. People didn't think it could snow that much that early and there was alot of debate going on up at the weather station. Most of the snow was melting during the daylight hours and then around 4:00 or so with temps at 32-33 it just started snowing heavily, about 2" an hour til about midnight. Really puts into perspective what happened here last year 3 weeks earlier in the season and how truly rare it was. I remember vividly hearing about that storm on The Weather Channel, wishing I was where you were and getting blasted by the snow. Of course, we got hammered here as well, but by the warm side of the storm. Was still only 9 years old then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That is beautiful. Whatever the season, you have to appreciate a synoptic system looking like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Ellinwood's thoughts on the EC tornado potential: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/09/17/tornado-threat-forecast-sep-18-2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Ellinwood's thoughts on the EC tornado potential: http://www.ustornado...st-sep-18-2012/ I also see a possibility for discrete convection to fire on the ocean near the Jersey shore and head NNE towards the NYC/LI areas again...where there is a localized surface-based CAPE/instability max tongue, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 11/11/95 was nuts. That was one of the more impressive wind events I've seen outside of a tropical event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I also see a possibility for discrete convection to fire on the ocean near the Jersey shore and head NNE towards the NYC/LI areas again...where there is a localized surface-based CAPE/instability max tongue, so to speak. If it can form tomorrow... watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 If it can form tomorrow... watch out! looks like where i am in western suffolk i may get some good storms tommorow morning if those storms can setup farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I also see a possibility for discrete convection to fire on the ocean near the Jersey shore and head NNE towards the NYC/LI areas again...where there is a localized surface-based CAPE/instability max tongue, so to speak. The NAM actualy tries to show this as it pokes the CAPE up into the south shore and NYC. We are getting good WAA now and my dew just hit 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 You guys think Upton goes with a high wind warning or just an adv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 If it can form tomorrow... watch out! Yup, the low-level shear and helicity is even more impressive than it was last Saturday with the stronger LLJ this time around! I might wake up relatively early and head towards an open beach, though that might be crazy. However, we were really able to crank up pretty high SB CAPE values last Saturday...ML CAPE was pretty low but once the storms became surface-based that morning, they were able to tap the localized ~2000 J/KG of SB CAPE. Even if we get the full potential low-level moisture tongue, the SB CAPE values are going to have a hard time getting anywhere near what they were last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Very nice loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 You guys think Upton goes with a high wind warning or just an adv. Warning to cover the potential for any convective damaging winds (probably isolated though) Region wide I think its more a high end advisory event. Allot of gusts in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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