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Potential Major Storm 9/18


NEG NAO

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surprised tor's couldnt get going, guess the CAPE was just not enough

As SBU mentioned the linear convergence was a major inhibiting factor -- the breaks in the clouds shown on some of the high resolution models last night never really made it into Central and Northern NJ/NYC either. That was the difference between surface based cape that was a result of moisture advection/working through the lapse rate...and increased surface based cape from actual diurnal heating/sun.

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Looks like the line will be training overhead for a while. Wonder if we can crack 2" for the event in addition to the 50 mph+ winds? Definitely a nice little event here. Keeping my fingers crossed that the power stays on.

I would think easy im around 1.10 now and missed the heaviest rain to my east. Still have some good cracks of thunder

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Anyone here along coastal Westchester or in Greenwich/Stamford? TJFK radar has been awful noisy this evening, but when the veil parted so to speak it may have shown a brief spinup between 800-815 PM.

Was this the same cell that moved up the East River? There seemed to be a broad circulation there as well for a small period of time. I believe there was an OB from someone nearby to that including rapidly changing wind direction.

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