NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Well with the loss of surface heat, they might. But with the increasing LLJ, that helps to support lots of lift considering the fact that we are also in the right entrance region of a powerful jet. This is not like the 8th with respect to losing kinematic support. Still think best winds are now ahead of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Sorry. I meant 8 for supercell value, NOT SigTor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Brother in Ewing lost power before the line even got there. He lives in a neighborhood with lots of big trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The velocities in the line are impressive. Still think best winds are now ahead of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Sorry. I meant 8 for supercell value, NOT SigTor. oh i was gonna say that would've been unheard of. and dr. forbes is wrong in saying less instability, we got quite a bit of instability and a raging LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I wish this line would speed up because the best parameters are escaping east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Where do you see this? No one here is saying there are escaping east. I wish this line would speed up because the best parameters are escaping east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 There was never any surface heating where the line is now. No sun whatsoever. Well the sun setting will help to lose a tad bit of surface heat and make the lapse rates near the surface a tad weaker. But I still think the increasing LLJ combined with being in the right entrance region of a powerful jet should help maintain the line through the Jersey coast...we are getting synoptic scale lift that we did not have on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just look at the convergence with the line on the velocity. Its impressive. Well the sun setting will help to lose a tad bit of surface heat and make the lapse rates near the surface a tad weaker. But I still think the increasing LLJ combined with being in the right entrance region of a powerful jet should help maintain the line through the Jersey coast...we are getting synoptic scale lift that we did not have on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Where do you see this? No one here is saying there are escaping east. gotta say as soon as these storms moved east of high bridge the velocity has gotten even more impressive. gotta be some 60-70 mph gusts in there. im just eager to see if there will be a tornadic threat as they head closer to the coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 They seem to always weaken as they move toward the island usually cause of a marine layer don't know about this time but I wouldn't doubt it,just my experience living here for over 30 years it seems to always happen.. Winds here are deff cranking now without any convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds are really kicking up now ahead of this line. PWS had a 44 MPH gust not too long ago. Clouds are screaming overhead Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 They seem to always weaken as they move toward the island usually cause of a marine layer don't know about this time but I wouldn't doubt it,just my experience living here for over 30 years it seems to always happen.. Winds here are deff cranking now without any convection The waters are really warm this time of year, making the marine layer irrelevant. If anything, the ocean helps to supply more moisture without actually stabilizing the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Where do you see this? No one here is saying there are escaping east. Trend for higher helicity values and shear is shifting to New England per SPC pages. We still have impressive parameters now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 at my brother's in North Brunswick...waiting for the line to hit before heading the rest of the way home to South Jersey...a few branches blown across rt 22 (1/2 inch diameter) when I left Newark an hour ago....wind picking up as line approaches Jon in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The velocities in the line are impressive. Line is about to hit here. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.2543478260869565&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&lat=41.47019958&lon=-74.07006073&label=New%20Windsor,%20NY&showstorms=10&map.x=263.5&map.y=203.5¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Still think best winds are now ahead of the line I'm probably going to head to Long Beach when the line is closer to the NYC area so I get get both pre-squall line winds and actual squall line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 FirstEnergy now reporting near 4k without power in Morris Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm probably going to head to Long Beach when the line is closer to the NYC area so I get get both pre-squall line winds and actual squall line winds. I think the best LLJ and winds are now east of the area, marked decrease in winds here past 20 mins as we got some light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That is totally not true. The LLJ is not east of the area. I think the best LLJ and winds are now east of the area, marked decrease in winds here past 20 mins as we got some light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 based on radar and velocities it looks like we could have the beginnings of a hook just to the north of princeton. Well see how it evolves but I like the look of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That is totally not true. The LLJ is not east of the area. The strongest looks just east now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The strongest is to the west, depicted by the line still to our west. Whatcha lookin' at? It didn't even rain yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That is totally not true. The LLJ is not east of the area. that is the most bogus statement today. some people have really gotta think, this line really is impressing me in the fact that its intensity and velocity has been so consistent over the past hour wanna see some wind reports out of dover,nj looked to get some serious winds with the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 mesoanalysis shows it right over the coast including your location. The strongest looks just east now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds are starting to rip out of the south now just ahead of the line here. Very impressive -- wind events here always create this low hum/roaring sound along the Watchung Mountains..usually reserved for synoptic wind events and big snowstorms -- can hear it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 new brunswick looks to be getting nailed soon with some wicked winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Parent's Davis gusted to 35 mph as the squall line went through... which is pretty good considering the trees, houses and the fact they're in a stream valley. (its highest I've seen it gust). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The strongest looks just east now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 well the line is just entering middlesex county nj and haven't seen any additional warnings here winds have not picked up much at all http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.18748913043478263&scale=0.367&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=453.5&map.y=231.5¢erx=500¢ery=365&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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