blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 9:18 PM, earthlight said: that the grlevel analyst image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 9:21 PM, blizzardof09 said: that the grlevel analyst image? Its the we're all gonna be disappointed image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 9:17 PM, Rjay said: Multiple gusts past 50 mph..2 miles from the water I am less then a mile from the Bay in Wantagh. Are you getting that on an anemometer? I don't think I have had anything higher then 50ish. The best winds should e in the next 2 hours. I'm taking a ride down to the beach soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 9:31 PM, gkrangers said: Its the we're all gonna be disappointed image. hahaha here come the bust calls! i can see where you are coming from though, this year every legit threat has underperformed and its hard to be confident in this setup actually delivering, but its too early to tell as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 9:32 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I am less then a mile from the Bay in Wantagh. Are you getting that on an anemometer? I don't think I have had anything higher then 50ish. The best winds should e in the next 2 hours. I'm taking a ride down to the beach soon. Perhaps I'll see you I'm heading down to Long Beach at around 7, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 54 and yes on the anemometer. I had one other gust to 51. Everything else has been in the 35-49 range. Im even further north than u. 2 miles from the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Anyone having problems getting the 21z SPC mesoanalysis updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just had an easily 45+mph gust here ...very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Already had some damaging gusts in Westchester, tree is down on a power line on my block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 9:40 PM, earthlight said: Just had an easily 45+mph gust here ...very impressive last few cycles on my grlevel3/analyst is really showing that squall line really mature. both base reflectivity/base velocity is showing this, what are the svr. parameters as this line moves east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 5:18pm: 41mph Sustained, Gust to 49mph at Robins Reef Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just looking out the window at work and the wind looks almost continuous/sustained around 30 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 TEWR radar looks to be hinting at some rotation just north of High Bridge, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The winds have really picked up in the past few minutes. I just saw a plane wobbling in the air on its way to JFK, idk if that had to do with the winds but it didn't look safe nor comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 9:53 PM, Dsnowx53 said: TEWR radar looks to be hinting at some rotation just north of High Bridge, NJ. looks that way for sure, we'll see what happens in the next few frames with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks like some broad rotation north of High Bridge even on the KDIX radar. NROT data on GR2AE shows it weakened now just west of Califon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Power is out in Woodlawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Some of the gusts here are getting very strong. Twice now I heard that sickening crack and thump in the woods behind the house. I would anticpate power outages and blocked roads. Unfortunate because I have to drive over to Stony Brook in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 10:00 PM, earthlight said: Looks like some broad rotation north of High Bridge even on the KDIX radar. NROT data on GR2AE shows it weakened now just west of Califon. that storm just northeast of philly looks to be packing quite the punch as well. not much rotation but looks very healthy nonetheless. the squall line as whole looks among the healthiest ive seen this year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Line coming thru here in NW Jersey...pouring with winds gusting 35 maybe 40....one of best stoa of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 *storms of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 450-500 s2/m2 of helicity in NYC and a SigTor value of 8 just south of NYC? Is this a first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 10:08 PM, Hailstorm said: 450-500 s2/m2 of helicity in NYC and a SigTor value of 8 just south of NYC? Is this a first? WOW! these storms are gonna be insane by the time they get to NYC on east. looks like a big night on tap, we'll see though but looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The line just west of Flemington has to be producing some pretty strong winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Greg Forbes thinks they will weaken. We'll see. Getting strong winds still. Not outside to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 When it heads into more unstable air? Surprising. On 9/18/2012 at 10:14 PM, Rjay said: Greg Forbes thinks they will weaken. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 On 9/18/2012 at 10:14 PM, Rjay said: Greg Forbes thinks they will weaken. We'll see Well with the loss of surface heat, they might. But with the increasing LLJ, that helps to support lots of lift considering the fact that we are also in the right entrance region of a powerful jet. This is not like the 8th with respect to losing kinematic support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 He said due to less instability. His words not mine. He is def one of the best out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...DE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 643... VALID 182208Z - 182315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 643 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...WW 643 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DOWNSTREAM WW 646 IN WFO OKX/ALY AREAS...A LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION FOR WFO PHI IS RECOMMENDED. DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDED FROM AROUND 25 SE MSV S/SWWD TO 20 E NHK. BASED ON CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION THIS LINE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO CLEAR NJ/DE PRIOR TO 23Z WW EXPIRATION. GIVEN 35-45 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR SAMPLED IN AREA VWP DATA AND GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS /REF 38 KT AT KPHL AT 2154Z/ AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. ..GRAMS.. 09/18/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 There was never any surface heating where the line is now. No sun whatsoever. On 9/18/2012 at 10:15 PM, Dsnowx53 said: Well with the loss of surface heat, they might. But with the increasing LLJ, that helps to support lots of lift considering the fact that we are also in the right entrance region of a powerful jet. This is not like the 8th with respect to losing kinematic support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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