NEG NAO Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Upton Discussion LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THEN OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. MOVING NE AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE MOVING SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THAT PHASE TOGETHER PRODUCING A FULL AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ALWAYS DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG WITH ITS AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK...THERE ARE GROWING SIGNALS OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING TO THE N-NE AND PASSING JUST WEST OF THE LATE TUESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE TSTMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. AN OUTLOOK FOR THIS STORM WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Upton mentioning tornadoes already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Was this modeled earlier? Very surprising to see the potential for a major storm to just "pop up" on this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 Was this modeled earlier? Very surprising to see the potential for a major storm to just "pop up" on this board! I think we should get used to this from now through this winter - We are officially in a weak El NINO right now plus some have argued that the excessive melt off of the Arctic ice caps is going to help to promote phasing and more extreme conditions here is an article about this http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/arctic-ice-melt-extreme-weather_n_1878833.html............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Hoping for a nice wind event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I think we should get used to this from now through this winter - We are officially in a weak El NINO right now plus some have argued that the excessive melt off of the Arctic ice caps is going to help to promote phasing and more extreme conditions here is an article about this http://www.huffingto..._n_1878833.html............... Interesting... Bring on the Miller A's! It just strikes me as odd that what could potentially be the highest impact event of 2012 doesn't have a 20 page thread! Remember December 10? That was the event that got me into this board! Based on last weeks storm over preforming on front end winds I think coastal areas have at least the potential for a damaging wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Interesting storm to track. THis thread will be hopping soon I bet. This storm looks potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 It's just mind-boggling to see Upton mentioning tornadoes or even severe t-storms this early. This confusion is compounded by the fact that no other Northeast offices are discussing severe weather in any of their current AFDs. Also, the SPC is not bullish at all on this threat. Upton is very hard-pressed to mention tornadoes 12 hours prior to a severe weather episode, let alone 96 hours! What is the reason? Is the model consensus that strong on the projected large-scale ascent, dynamics and buoyancy for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Very bullish from almost 12 hours ago. I imagine the new HWO will sound even more intense now that the NAM is coming in pretty strong. 000 FLUS41 KOKX 141959 HWOOKX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 359 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TUESDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR THIS SYSTEM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 How high are the severe parameters in the new NAM? (CAPE, shear, mid-level flow, helicity, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I want to be excited but after these past few let downs since im near the coast, not expecting very much. I would be SHOCKED if i got a severe storm. Anyway your right this storm looks potent for sure we'll see as the event gets closer i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I want to be excited but after these past few let downs since im near the coast, not expecting very much. I would be SHOCKED if i got a severe storm. Anyway your right this storm looks potent for sure we'll see as the event gets closer i guess All of those events have been strong cold fronts or even a mini derecho. This is gonna be the seasons first Nor'Easter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Yeah I don't think this would really be a severe weather event. Though it could be a multifaceted storm with some parts of the area getting severe storms while most areas get a wind driven heavy rain nor'easter type event. What's also interesting is the lack of heat in the long term. While I don't necessarily buy the GFS it essentially says no 80s the rest of the month. All of those events have been strong cold fronts or even a mini derecho. This is gonna be the seasons first Nor'Easter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Yeah I don't think this would really be a severe weather event. Though it could be a multifaceted storm with some parts of the area getting severe storms while most areas get a wind driven heavy rain nor'easter type event. What's also interesting is the lack of heat in the long term. While I don't necessarily buy the GFS it essentially says no 80s the rest of the month. We are expecting surface low pressure and an associated robust shortwave with its vortmax to eject from the central states to Upstate New York. This does not have any nor'easter aspects to it. I don't see any coastal development. We will also see a digging trough that will negatively tilt, which is a classic signature of strong severe weather outbreaks. The SPC already has parts of the NE highlighted for Days 4-5 for at least 30% probs. We don't need much CAPE/sun/instability for this event as we will have plenty of upper-level dynamics and forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Nice little warm sector on the 06z DGEX. Timing isnt great for severe weather (06-12z) but I suppose if we could get a warm front near the area we could see some isolated spinups or gusty winds especially with such a potent shortwave just off to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Nice little warm sector on the 06z DGEX. Timing isnt great for severe weather (06-12z) but I suppose if we could get a warm front near the area we could see some isolated spinups or gusty winds especially with such a potent shortwave just off to our northwest. Look at the cool air right behind this storm. 540 Thicknesses are diving pretty far south for September and are into Michigan. The pattern seems pretty amplified, which will hopefully continue into the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 GFS has a very potent LLJ. 55 knot wind at 950 hpa. Still more than three days out, but the potential is there for some strong winds with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 SPC has a 30% hatch for Day 4, even though it is further west across NY and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 If we can get the 250 mb jet to punch through the warm sector way ahead of the trough, then that would really ramp up severe convection. It would also help if we can get an E-W oriented polar vortex to converge with extensive WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 GFS has a very potent LLJ. 55 knot wind at 950 hpa. Still more than three days out, but the potential is there for some strong winds with this system. The 18z NAM realizes this potential. With stronger convection, some of the higher winds aloft from the LLJ could be mixed down to the surface: The strongest convection has additionally yet to reach the area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Will be intersting to see how the LLJ evolves on the models over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 SPC SREF helicity values are impressive, over 300 m^2/s^s across northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 As it stands now the surface instability on guidance is very unimpressive, which shouldn't come as much of a surprise. We'll need the warm sector to bump farther north to start talking about a real severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I'd be happy for a major rain storm and some wind. Thunder and lightning this time of year seems out of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Yeah I would think this would be a case of widespread gusts of 30-40 outside of the squalls and then some severe gusts in the squalls themselves, just because of how strong the winds appear to be just off the surface. An isolated tor can't be ruled out. Nice little warm sector on the 06z DGEX. Timing isnt great for severe weather (06-12z) but I suppose if we could get a warm front near the area we could see some isolated spinups or gusty winds especially with such a potent shortwave just off to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 SPC has most of NJ and NYC under a 30% risk for Day 3 now. I think this is the first time we have been under a 30% risk on a Day 3 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 6Z GFS has decreased rainfall amounts significantly in NYC Metro http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 the guy on Channel 7 did not have the rain starting until late Tuesday afternoon or evening, if this 6zGFS is right this will be a total non event with all the best dynamics probably up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 the guy on Channel 7 did not have the rain starting until late Tuesday afternoon or evening, if this 6zGFS is right this will be a total non event with all the best dynamics probably up north. A further NW track = less rainfall = less cloud debris = more destabilization in the warm sector = more buoyancy for the convection. Let's see if this is a trend with the 12z model suite, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Why anyone is trusting the 6z GFS to say anything of importance is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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