Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Jackpot. Earliest accum on record coming? https://twitter.com/...1/photo/1/large lol GFS...you so funny! Hopefully not a sign of many long range GFS disappointments to come this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Jackpot. Earliest accum on record coming? https://twitter.com/...1/photo/1/large Congrats on the DC bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Jackpot. Earliest accum on record coming? https://twitter.com/...1/photo/1/large With our luck, that may be our biggest event of the fall/winter season. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 With our luck, that may be our biggest event of the fall/winter season. MDstorm Welcome back, winter of 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 I've been following the indices forecasts since the end of August. I honestly believe this past month and upcoming couple of weeks is significant. Not saying that it continues into winter or anything. It's just significant because it's persistent. The NAO in particular has basically been negative since the beginning of june and now we are moving into a time of year where it really means something irt sensible weather. I was surprised/disappointed at the ao/nao combo last winter. I thought the odds favored a negative bias because we seem to be in a multi-year negative pattern. However, even the 60's had one year with a pretty + bias (66-67). Are we really in a negative cycle like the 60's? I'm not really sure. There are some indications saying we may be but I really don't have the knowledge to say anything definitive. With a weak nino on the way we're going to need some big help from the nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I've been following the indices forecasts since the end of August. I honestly believe this past month and upcoming couple of weeks is significant. Not saying that it continues into winter or anything. It's just significant because it's persistent. The NAO in particular has basically been negative since the beginning of june and now we are moving into a time of year where it really means something irt sensible weather. I was surprised/disappointed at the ao/nao combo last winter. I thought the odds favored a negative bias because we seem to be in a multi-year negative pattern. However, even the 60's had one year with a pretty + bias (66-67). Are we really in a negative cycle like the 60's? I'm not really sure. There are some indications saying we may be but I really don't have the knowledge to say anything definitive. With a weak nino on the way we're going to need some big help from the nao. I know what you're trying to say, and understand that you're just looking at an index (or two) and not making a seasonal weather forecast-- but that's kind of an inadvertently funny comment. As you know, '66-'67, one of our all-time great winters, doesn't in the least resemble last winter. So to begin to predict sensible weather, as you know, there clearly is something beyond just looking at one or two indices, important as those indices may be to our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I know what you're trying to say, and understand that you're just looking at an index (or two) and not making a seasonal weather forecast-- but that's kind of an inadvertently funny comment. As you know, '66-'67, one of our all-time great winters, doesn't in the least resemble last winter. So to begin to predict sensible weather, as you know, there clearly is something beyond just looking at one or two indices, important as those indices may be to our region. I hear ya. The weenie in me is just looking for any and all signs that a 11-12 redux isn't going to happen irt to the ao/nao. I don't care what enso, pdo, mjo, or anything else looks like when we are stuck in a anomalous +nao/ao regime. It's a kiss of death. And this year being a weak nino we'll need help from these indices no matter what. NE can do fine with them being neutral and modestly positive. We cannot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I hear ya. The weenie in me is just looking for any and all signs that a 11-12 redux isn't going to happen irt to the ao/nao. I don't care what enso, pdo, mjo, or anything else looks like when we are stuck in a anomalous +nao/ao regime. It's a kiss of death. And this year being a weak nino we'll need help from these indices no matter what. NE can do fine with them being neutral and modestly positive. We cannot. Start praying the AK vortex decides to get off its ass and move, or else, torch city for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 12z GFS looks cold in the post-day 10 range. Also shortens/weakens the warm up early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Could be interesting for VA/NC if this scenario is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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