The Dude Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks like we got .2 overnight. Feels very tropical out there. Humid and breezy. I just secured the items on our deck. 6/29 knocked over a ~150 lb grill. 9/8 tossed around a ~2 lb plastic swimming pool. I'm guessing today will be somewhere in between. My official forecast is a 60% chance of my cheap ~6 lb plastic chairs being moved at least a foot. Good luck to all of you in the path of this grave threat. Stay vigilant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I think this stuff is going surface based for NC. Some tops exceeding 30K in NC and shows sign of supercellular characteristics. This looks like the first of possibly 2 broken rounds ahead of the squall line that possibly develops 18-20z in western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I think this stuff is going surface based for NC. Some tops exceeding 30K in NC and shows sign of supercellular characteristics. This looks like the first of possibly 2 broken rounds ahead of the squall line that possibly develops 18-20z in western areas. Are you saying maybe not surface based farther north? Thoughts for DC proper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Are you saying maybe not surface based farther north? Thoughts for DC proper? I'm not saying anything about further north. I think you guys in DC look fine. The IAD sounding this morning is very telling. I'm just saying that this stuff in NC looks to go first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm not saying anything about further north. I think you guys in DC look fine. The IAD sounding this morning is very telling. I'm just saying that this stuff in NC looks to go first. Thanks! Yeah I was surprised at the CAPE numbers shown in the IAD sounding. Been socked in here all morning - soupy airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 these events are fun because they show how much some really respected locals are clueless for convection "more late than early" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 these events are fun because they show how much some really respected locals are clueless for convection "more late than early" https://twitter.com/...881188520382464 It is almost like they are programmed to say that because of how often that is the case. Makes me wonder how much they actually analyze the weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Weather radio just went off for a coastal flood warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 There is a SVR out now with the NC stuff. I really like the environment ahead (duh! ha) and I'm thinking we get our first threat for a tornado with this cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 There is a SVR out now with the NC stuff. I really like the environment ahead (duh! ha) and I'm thinking we get our first threat for a tornado with this cluster. Winner http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1209181344.wwus20.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty nice line sizing up just west of winchester. Probably some decent gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 It is almost like they are programmed to say that because of how often that is the case. Makes me wonder how much they actually analyze the weather... Many EC mets gloss over tornado potential. Though in these situations it's usually a good get things move faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 0.60" with quite a bit more to come. Just cracked 1.50" since midnight. Heavy echoes on radar about to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pregame winds are impressive. Not constant but knocking some small branches down here and there. Clouds are booking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Good rains here all morning. At work (no gauge), so don't know the rain totals, but we've got to be closing in on an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 NAM still brings a pounding through later 2-5pm. Should be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just got a really strong gust. I'm pretty impressed with the winds ahead of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty nice line sizing up just west of winchester. Probably some decent gusts. Somewhat breezy, but not gusty. Very heavy rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 .24 in the bucket. Wind gust of 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Had a little burst of mod rain and man did it bring some winds down with it. I just checked thomas point light on the bay (just south of annapolis) and peak gust last hour was 35kts (40mph) with 31kts sustained (35mph). I think it's pretty reasonable to expect 60mph gusts in many areas today. I'm glad it's a south wind too. All my big trees are to the N of my house so if any come down it will be my neighbor's problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'd like to see a bit more separation of returns to the south headed this way. Gotta favor eastern areas for tor threat I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'd like to see a bit more separation of returns to the south headed this way. Gotta favor eastern areas for tor threat I'd think. I am favoring BR and east IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Many people in our region are going to get a lot of rain today, IMO. It is really pouring here with no letup in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I am favoring BR and east IMO I'm talking mainly pre-band stuff could get warning/s there too... it's pretty messy out there (as expected, as always i guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just hit 2.00" since midnight. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KWVFALLI5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 069 WWUS30 KWNS 181451 SAW2 SPC AWW 181451 WW 642 TORNADO DC MD NC VA WV CW 181455Z - 182300Z AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 35ESE AVC/SOUTH HILL VA/ - 40NNE BWI/BALTIMORE MD/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /61S RIC - 31ENE EMI/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040. LAT...LON 36477908 39707808 39707469 36477584 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 gusty winds, heavy rain here with that severe warned storm-line. no thunder. just like 2 saturdays ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yoda wins. TW up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS A VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT VAD AND MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 nice.. 60% for 2 or more, 20% strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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