EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Big time 10% tor on the new D1, still slight. Ya if we can manage to get some breaks tomorrow it might get really nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 .12 so far since midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Rain so far .15 Severe so far .00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 we are all going to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 we are all going to die nators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 1.01" since midnight, 1.41" total since it started yesterday afternoon. Heavier blob has shifted east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 0.60" with quite a bit more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Power went out last night at around 12:30, and stayed off for an hour-and-a-half or so. I looked at the radar archive and it looks like we got some rain, but it didn't seem impressive enough to have the power go out. So...bad news for power staying on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Went to bed it was raining and woke up it was still raining. Over an inch at the airport already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 So, tornado watch by noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have to wonder if we'll come close to those 1500 CAPE numbers that were printed out last night. Very dreary out there...hard to believe we see many peaks of sunshine if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Surprised, but good rains here for the past 90 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Orientation and size of the 10% TOR contour changed significantly in the new 1300 SPC OTLK 9/18/2012 0600 TOR -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif 9/18/2012 1300 TOR -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Watch likely (80 percent) by late morning. Wow. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1957.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 1300 disco VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE RISK AREA. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ALONG A CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE DC-BWI-PHL-NYC AREAS. HERE...EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 FAVORS THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR WILL BE MONITORED FOR TRENDS SUGGESTING A GREATER RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Wind gusting to 21mph back at home in Severna Park. 0.2" of rain last night. Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Orientation and size of the 10% TOR contour changed significantly in the new 1300 SPC OTLK 9/18/2012 0600 TOR -- http://www.spc.noaa....k_1200_torn.gif 9/18/2012 1300 TOR -- http://www.spc.noaa....k_1300_torn.gif I'm suspect that's an error - the disco still covers the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES AND GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC ARE ALREADY INDICATIVE OF 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE WITH VIRTUALLY NIL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ALONG WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED/RICH LOW-LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2 From the disco of the MD Kenny posted above -- I wasnt expecting much MLCAPE at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm suspect that's an error - the disco still covers the same area. No - they mention specifically the DCA-BWI-PHL-NYC corridor which works nicely with the updated probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Dryslot. Welcome to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 12z sounding - IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have to wonder if we'll come close to those 1500 CAPE numbers that were printed out last night. Very dreary out there...hard to believe we see many peaks of sunshine if any. LWX 12z sounding thinks so... already at 500 and forecast to reach 1500 (pic ninja'd by you ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Some SREF grabs from the 03z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Orientation and size of the 10% TOR contour changed significantly in the new 1300 SPC OTLK 9/18/2012 0600 TOR -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif 9/18/2012 1300 TOR -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif The first was way too big on 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The first was way too big on 10%. ON a related note - they are still monitoring for your moderate upgrade Not feeling a moderate today, though. High end slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 ON a related note - they are still monitoring for your moderate upgrade Not feeling a moderate today, though. High end slight. I could see them going mod if things get going, partially also because the cities they mentioned are all big cities... and its a large traveling corridor of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The first was way too big on 10%. Rockland, ME got screwed out of the 2% in the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 No - they mention specifically the DCA-BWI-PHL-NYC corridor which works nicely with the updated probs. Right - they fixed the graphic posted earlier which showed a FL-GA-SC threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 ON a related note - they are still monitoring for your moderate upgrade Not feeling a moderate today, though. High end slight. I doubt they will upgrade .. Maybe if 10 supercells get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks like we got .2 overnight. Feels very tropical out there. Humid and breezy. I just secured the items on our deck. 6/29 knocked over a ~150 lb grill. 9/8 tossed around a ~2 lb plastic swimming pool. I'm guessing today will be somewhere in between. My official forecast is a 60% chance of my cheap ~6 lb plastic chairs being moved at least a foot. Good luck to all of you in the path of this grave threat. Stay vigilant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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