andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Does this mean you are even considering tomorrow. I likely will be out, see below for my plans (as of now). I highly recommend grabbing a copy of Tim Vasquez's Storm Chasing handbook and Forecasting handbook. It is written for beginners to get you to a decent level of understanding. Not in and around the DC/Metro. But better than a high risk (note my next comment) High Risk....high bust. I prefer Mods, more likely to play out. Granted we did have April 2010 (Raliegh tornado day). *April 16th, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Tornado Watch till 3 AM for W NC/NW SC/E TN/NE GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 *April 16th, 2011. Doh...yeah...2011. I do that a lot.For anyone who wants a cropped down graphic of the current day 2...you can steal it from my blog post: http://stormitecture.wordpress.com/2012/09/17/mid-atlantic-severe-threat-for-september-18/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Baltimore, MD sounding at 5pm Tomorrow... Washington, DC sounding at 5pm tomorrow. Both these soundings are alarming, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I know that this thread has morphed into a severe thread, but I'd like to at least point out how encouraging it is to see the models gradually keep opening up the rain shield over the northern part of Va. Doesn't mean it'll happen, but its amazing how often this seems to happen. I wish I understood what the models are seeing that causes them to forecast that hole. Is it the mts? They don't seem to be hurting the rain in swva It seems to be most prevalent with the American models, especially any derivative of the NAM. I don't see it nearly as often with the foreign output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Does this mean you are even considering tomorrow. I likely will be out, see below for my plans (as of now). I plan on chasing, but you know me... gotta get those TORs!!!!!!! Just said on Twitter... no idea where I'm gonna end up tomorrow, though northern MD looks like a decent spot for now. May end up hanging out just east of Frederick and then work NE with the storms as best I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 How long till 21z SREFs again? I forget what time they come out. I am mainly focused on CAPE in tonights runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Imagine if tomorrow had an EML flying in just in time from the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 about an hour How long till 21z SREFs again? I forget what time they come out. I am mainly focused on CAPE in tonights runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Come join me on mt. Pisgah, eastern York county, from 1:30 to 4:30 tomorrow Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have a busy day tomorrow.. it might cut into my radar watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have a busy day tomorrow.. it might cut into my radar watching. Me too. I have class until 2:15. I'll have a hard time focusing in class .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Imagine if tomorrow had an EML flying in just in time from the southwest That'd be quite the scenario (read: damaging wind/tornado outbreak), but I'm sure most will take this in Sept. Tomorrow should be a good day to test out Radarscope on my laptop, and needless to say the 21z SREF/00z model suite will be telling, as well as the RAP as it begins to get in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 ...but I'm sure most will take this in Sept. Indeed. Gotta play with the hand you're dealt, and this ain't that bad a hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Indeed. Gotta play with the hand you're dealt, and this ain't that bad a hand. Probably a solid straight or flush (or a 17/18 if we're talking blackjack). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Not much if any sun tomorrow. No LCL problems at least. Not the best skys for chasing ahead of whatever forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Newest SPC outlook puts me right on the edge of the slight risk and 5% tor probs. Probably doesn't mean too much, but what can I say, I'm a severe weather weenie and I finally have something to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have a busy day tomorrow.. it might cut into my radar watching. Damn I was going to count on you for updates I will be stuck inside customs all afternoon tomorrow working im 0 for 2 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 RAP is beginning to get in range and the LL shear being progged by 15-17z is already off the charts, will be interesting to see what type of values will be churned out when/if the max instability that shows up on the NAM (around 21z) shows up on the RAP as well once it gets in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That'd be quite the scenario (read: damaging wind/tornado outbreak), but I'm sure most will take this in Sept. Tomorrow should be a good day to test out Radarscope on my laptop, and needless to say the 21z SREF/00z model suite will be telling, as well as the RAP as it begins to get in range. Its exceptional. This is an early mid spring like type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have sprinkles. One of the kids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 21z SREF starting to come in, "let's see what she does" (to quote Twister)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 00z NAM soundings at 18z KIAD -- http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=018&STATIONID=KIAD KBWI -- http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=018&STATIONID=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 00z NAM looks to have sped the timing up by about 1-3 hrs, soundings are just as impressive as previous runs though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 00z NAM soundings at 18z KIAD -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KIAD KBWI -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KBWI KDCA -- http://68.226.77.253...T_NAM__KDCA.png KEZF -- http://68.226.77.253/skewts/NAM-test/018/SKT_NAM__KEZF.png KFDK -- http://68.226.77.253/skewts/NAM-test/018/SKT_NAM__KFDK.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The LCL at Lancaster tomorrow at 2PM according to the NAM will be at 968mb, also at that time, I will be standing on a 950 ASL foot hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I still have somewhat mixed feelings about this event for some reason. I think I'm hoping that the tornado potential overperforms as I think the squall has potential to underperform. Wonder if we'll have two distinct batches--a potential group of rotating somethings 'early' (mid-afternoonish) then a bit of a lull before the frontal band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Nice little boundary in the area around 18z. Separates SSE winds with SSW winds it appears. That might be where a few cells get going with ok instability, but high shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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