Avdave Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Derecho part II. We are all gonna die tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Derecho part II. We are all gonna die tomorrow Shut the bridge down!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Sounds good - just shoot me an email with details and ill take care of it Jay - thanks for the hodo information Glad to be a help! These graphs were a great confusion to me at first. CoastalWx and ORHwxman had great patience in teaching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Thanks for the hodo info, disc and sbos. Now I see why everyone was yearning for the soundings to come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 MARK thoughts: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/09/17/tornado-threat-forecast-sep-18-2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Nice little cell here well outside of the tornado threat that's indicated by the SPC. Sign to what's coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Ian - What's the QPF on the Euro? 1.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 MARK thoughts: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/09/17/tornado-threat-forecast-sep-18-2012/ Nice writeup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Ian - What's the QPF on the Euro? 1.5"? Mostly 1.5"+... 1"+ bubble over N VA to our west. 1"+ line well southeast of us... still a lower precip area over far se va and e nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Nice article by Mark, but the 8th was massive bust in my area so I'm hoping I do better tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Nice disco Mark. What does storm-master Ian think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Nice disco Mark. What does storm-master Ian think? im mostly worried about the morning mess.. looks like we'll have plenty of shower activity around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 18z NAM hodos still look good.. CAPE toned down to around 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The Tennessee storms are doing quite well in an environment with 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE... might be the target to shoot for tomorrow as well. Caveat is the TN storms are moving much slower than what we are expecting for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Almost put under a slight risk here. I am in a 2% tor risk, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I know that this thread has morphed into a severe thread, but I'd like to at least point out how encouraging it is to see the models gradually keep opening up the rain shield over the northern part of Va. Doesn't mean it'll happen, but its amazing how often this seems to happen. I wish I understood what the models are seeing that causes them to forecast that hole. Is it the mts? They don't seem to be hurting the rain in swva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Nice line tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 That WRF displays what to look for. Those cells ahead of the line may be the type that barely have lightning, but could have quite a bit of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Nice line tomorrow. Better hope less messy than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Better hope less messy than that Thats probably best we will get... we arent going to get one solid line per se that looks nice and beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 SREF is pretty sexy. I'd think we can get a pretty large 5% tor with a 10% somewhere in there if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 awesome structure from charlotte today https://twitter.com/4cast4you/status/247829509456396288/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 thats purrrty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 awesome structure from charlotte today https://twitter.com/...8/photo/1/large One factor not previously mentioned- LCL's? I assume they are average. Moisture seems typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 One factor not previously mentioned- LCL's? I assume they are average. Moisture seems typical. Given temp/dp spread id think quite low tho haven't looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I would definitely have reasonable concern for some areas having cloud cover issues. Satellite suggests there could be serious problems with that. I'd say thats our major jam in the gears for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Rain is boring. Helpful, but boring. I'm in it for the adrenaline rush. Does this mean you are even considering tomorrow. I likely will be out, see below for my plans (as of now). I wish I understood that I highly recommend grabbing a copy of Tim Vasquez's Storm Chasing handbook and Forecasting handbook. It is written for beginners to get you to a decent level of understanding. mod risks arent even that exciting anymore Not in and around the DC/Metro. But better than a high risk (note my next comment) Boring. High Risk and a PDS or bust. High Risk....high bust. I prefer Mods, more likely to play out. Granted we did have April 2010 (Raliegh tornado day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 My general plan at the moment is to set up east side of the beltway somewhere to either head directly for a severe area to the west either toward the south in VA or south into s.Maryland. OR wait for the line to arrive in PG through Anne Arundel County and track just ahead of it over the bay and get some great imagery with the Chesapeake Bay Bridge in my shots. My goal is more centered around good imagery than dynamics....but I may just go for dynamics if things on the RAP and MesoAnalysis page look better. At the moment I'm highly suspicious of a grungy morning/mid-day hence the limited travel plans. Well that, and if I'm solo...my Jeep has limits on travel distances (and MPGs SUCK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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