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September 17-19 2012 rain and severe weather potential

SNO

By SNO,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormitecture

stormitecture

Posted
Posted

Uggg....hate waiting for video to export. I have to get the timecoded screener out. I'll post here when it's on YT. Later I'll post when the better quality version is on Vimeo (YT sucks). I completely didn't see this or play this as expected. I didn't have one expectation or interest of going north. I sat in a parking lot just off i270 and debated. Finally giving in. Decent flood action this time around in the Frederick County area, mostly south of downtown Frederick then in town.

scanning the thread, I see it kinda sucked for everyone. Not many pics.

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csaylorVT

csaylorVT

Posted
Posted

Video from near the top of the parking garage at the Baltimore County Courthouse. Nothing spectacular, but pretty neat and got me out of a good 30 minutes of ArcObjects drudgery. The fun starts around 4:30. Looks a tad hurricane-ish with sheets of rain blowing through the garage.

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Mrs.J

Mrs.J

Posted
Posted

Frederick, MD:

Great video Mark. I have seen shots of Frederick from FB friends but the video really shows the power. My PWS as it stands right now is at 4.08" with light rain again. Drove by Ballenger Creek along a back road and it was not a slow moving creek anymore. It is behind my neighborhood but I am not able to get back there but you can hear it.

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Mrs.J

Mrs.J

Posted
Posted

Finally, the video is 99% complete. Should be in HD form as well. I think just the thumbnail hasn't been processed.

https://vimeo.com/49719060

(OK, didn't realize Vimeo doesn't work like YT here, I'll upload to YT so it'll embed).

Add: When it's done:

But Vimeo is WAY BETTER.

Looks like you were down the road from me at the start. I live off of MD 351 Ballenger Creek Pike just North of the traffic circle. Just amazing see the flooding at Baker Park.

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stormitecture

stormitecture

Posted
Posted

Looks like you were down the road from me at the start. I live off of MD 351 Ballenger Creek Pike just North of the traffic circle. Just amazing see the flooding at Baker Park.

Yup, drive up on Ballenger Creek until the detour. I originally came down 85 & New Design, kinda did a U-turn around the Adamstown area. Love that huge windmill, but the telephone/powerlines didn't allow for a good video clip.
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Suprised there are zero Tornado reports in the country for today I was expecting less than the forecasts called for but not zero.

I guess we need an EML , sunshine and BRN Shear between 25 and 100 whatever that means.

I would have thought we'd get more tornado wise than we did given the model look the last 24 hours or so--tho maybe we'll get a confirmed in NC somewhere (know one was showing signs of debris on dual pol). I think one of my early concerns with the main forcing lagging a bit still sorta came to fruition. Though, overall, the trough setup was pretty ideal. I think the tornado threat was always somewhat conditional and everyone knew that but to see so little in a large 5-10% area is a bit surprising. I would think most times a 10% produces at least a handful of touchdowns. However, SPC busts even in the Plains from time to time--they busted at least two mod risks out there this year. And this might be the first EC one this year that more than likely busted without much consideration. (well, the derecho was a bust for them until it was on the doorstep but the mod verified)

I need to look back at College Park and some other situations late yr that produced well. Many are tropical related.. but even though we CAN get a decent event in Sept .. the last two were clearly different than earlier events in the year.. much more cool-season like.

I'm confused as to why they pulled the trigger at 1630z if not prior. As far as I can tell nothing had changed for them to do that. Perhaps mesoanalysis with some CAPE increase was enough.

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stormitecture

stormitecture

Posted
Posted

There is something I want to say about the lack of action in low cape (under 2000 j/k) but I hesitate not being a met or having done a tornado-day to instability spread sheet comparison. Same with sun. Mark knows I'm big on sun on any true tornado threat day. Grunge is grunge. I was lack luster early today, but put faith in the forecasters (and still will on the next setup). But still would love to read a more academic analysis of this interest in pushing not just a mod, but any tornado risk without sun & high cape...in the Mid-Atlantic.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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There is something I want to say about the lack of action in low cape (under 2000 j/k) but I hesitate not being a met or having done a tornado-day to instability spread sheet comparison. Same with sun. Mark knows I'm big on sun on any true tornado threat day. Grunge is grunge. I was lack luster early today, but put faith in the forecasters (and still will on the next setup). But still would love to read a more academic analysis of this interest in pushing not just a mod, but any tornado risk without sun & high cape...in the Mid-Atlantic.

There are definitely a number of decent high shear/low cape events.. not sure about this area specifically but I think more often than not tornado events are grungy locally. High shear/low cape also seems like a recipe for bust more often than not. The mod was for wind, not tornadoes.. just for clarification there. Need 15% for tornado mod. Though I even sorta question the wind as you need the CAPE to build the storms up to tap all the wind. I was actually sorta meh on the event through like Sunday night. I'm a bandwagoner. :(

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stormitecture

stormitecture

Posted
Posted

There are definitely a number of decent high shear/low cape events.. not sure about this area specifically but I think more often than not tornado events are grungy locally. High shear/low cape also seems like a recipe for bust more often than not. The mod was for wind, not tornadoes.. just for clarification there. Need 15% for tornado mod. Though I even sorta question the wind as you need the CAPE to build the storms up to tap all the wind. I was actually sorta meh on the event through like Sunday night. I'm a bandwagoner. :(

Agreed, there are events with the high shear but low cape, I just can't say I remember many of them in the greater DC region. Most every single major event I can remember for this area involved lots of sun. What I couldn't tell you is what the cape values were on those days. I also haven't been here for all the major events.

I know the mod was for the wind, but there was still a tor risk described with the event. I am not going to dispute the merits of that either. I just want to read the academic view point (but not too over my head of course, otherwise I can't learn). It is one of those things where I shouldn't let my "gut" tell me things about the weather, but at times, most times actually, I just feel I should, especially for this area...that I have a ton of experience with (but only a little bit of true meteorological knowledge of).

All that said, if I move...what the hell does it matter. ;-)

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Agreed, there are events with the high shear but low cape, I just can't say I remember many of them in the greater DC region. Most every single major event I can remember for this area involved lots of sun. What I couldn't tell you is what the cape values were on those days. I also haven't been here for all the major events.

I know the mod was for the wind, but there was still a tor risk described with the event. I am not going to dispute the merits of that either. I just want to read the academic view point (but not too over my head of course, otherwise I can't learn). It is one of those things where I shouldn't let my "gut" tell me things about the weather, but at times, most times actually, I just feel I should, especially for this area...that I have a ton of experience with (but only a little bit of true meteorological knowledge of).

All that said, if I move...what the hell does it matter. ;-)

June 1 didn't have a lot of sun I don't think. Most tropical events (which are some of the bigger producers in the area) usually also have quite low sun. However, they do have some usually I guess. Today was pretty hard pressed for more than a peek. Though, sun energy is much less by this time of year compared to June so I'm not sure it's entirely critical. Timing is more important in most cases than anything else. It's hard to get 25 different ingredients to come together within a range that works.

When we had that squall ripping just to the west early in the morning that was a bit problematic. Then we kept getting little waves of lighter activity across the area before the main waa surge in the Carolinas. It definitely didn't feel as good as it looked on paper as it got underway.

The gut is important.. particularly if you've "studied" the weather simply by living it while watching as much as possible. People with local knowledge make far better forecasters IMO, particularly around here given we have a significant number of unique attributes not common in a lot of places.

Now the real front is about to come thru. Another pencil line!

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
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Can't figure out the true rainfall here today. Winchester reported around 1.6, but when I got home I found over 3.7 inches in my gauge. Problem is I've got some shrubs near my house that really grew this season and I wonder if they are now skewing my measurements. Given the frequency of my sump pump tonight though I'm inclined to think it may be right. Any one out there in my area measure anything similar?

Front just came through with a brieif burst of rain, and now winds are gusting. Bye, bye, humidity. Hope not to see you again... ever.

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

I would have thought we'd get more tornado wise than we did given the model look the last 24 hours or so--tho maybe we'll get a confirmed in NC somewhere (know one was showing signs of debris on dual pol). I think one of my early concerns with the main forcing lagging a bit still sorta came to fruition. Though, overall, the trough setup was pretty ideal. I think the tornado threat was always somewhat conditional and everyone knew that but to see so little in a large 5-10% area is a bit surprising. I would think most times a 10% produces at least a handful of touchdowns. However, SPC busts even in the Plains from time to time--they busted at least two mod risks out there this year. And this might be the first EC one this year that more than likely busted without much consideration. (well, the derecho was a bust for them until it was on the doorstep but the mod verified)

I need to look back at College Park and some other situations late yr that produced well. Many are tropical related.. but even though we CAN get a decent event in Sept .. the last two were clearly different than earlier events in the year.. much more cool-season like.

I'm confused as to why they pulled the trigger at 1630z if not prior. As far as I can tell nothing had changed for them to do that. Perhaps mesoanalysis with some CAPE increase was enough.

Tropical cyclones don't need an EML or sunlight to produce tornados for some reason, aparently most other events do.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040908_rpts.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040917_rpts.html

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Tropical cyclones don't need an EML or sunlight to produce tornados for some reason, aparently most other events do.

http://www.spc.noaa....40908_rpts.html

http://www.spc.noaa....40917_rpts.html

tropical stuff is definitely different in some ways.. tho you usually get differential heating in between bands so not entirely dissimilar.

living in mid lvl lapse rate hell

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