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September 17-19 2012 rain and severe weather potential


SNO

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Composite supercell parameter up to 12 just W and SW of DC on latest SPC mesoscale analysis page.

Sky brightening here. Seems some breaks to the clouds to the south. Just got back from jury duty; thankfully, I was dismissed in time for whatever show we're going to have.

This severe weather season is roughly analogous to Orioles' season. An amazing day early on (derecho, the 17-inning game against Boston) and some big days down the September stretch. And then ... well that's where the analogy ends.

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Whoa...updated zone forecasts actually mention tornadoes in the text. That's kind of unusual even for our bigger events.

.THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BREEZY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

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All the discrete stuff still struggling. Few trying in front of mini bow to sw tho I don't have terribly high hopes in that despite the good parameters.

SB CAPE is still pretty low in most areas, except well to the south in NC. If we can get the SB CAPE to increase, then I can see discrete surface-based cells forming, but as of now, that's struggling to occur.

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SB CAPE is still pretty low in most areas, except well to the south in NC. If we can get the SB CAPE to increase, then I can see discrete surface-based cells forming, but as of now, that's struggling to occur.

yeah once you get down into central/e nc and se va it looks better still. up here we're racing against the main band and seem more likely to lose that race as the minutes pass.

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* AT 213 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM WARRENTON TO BEALETON...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT

50 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DESPITE VERY

LITTLE LIGHTNING BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE.

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Some of the strongest gusts of the day moving through my area. Looks like I'm in a decent spot on the northern half of the bow approaching. I don't expect to have power after it moves through. It's already flickered off and on 3 times since noon.

That was me. i went over to the big switch on the wall and turned it off and on a couple times. Now I know what its for.

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yeah once you get down into central/e nc and se va it looks better still. up here we're racing against the main band and seem more likely to lose that race as the minutes pass.

Yeah, an area of 2000 J/KG SB CAPE just "formed" there per the latest mesoanalysis, so I'd watch for discrete convection MAYBE trying to form there and head NNE. I'm holding out hope that I'm east enough so I can "buy time" so to speak for discrete convection, but also west enough to stay in an area of lift and instability. But it's going to be tough, though.

I really wish the 1000 J/KG of SB CAPE was much more widespread. No sun FTL.

post-73-0-77668400-1347993481_thumb.gif

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I know what you mean. Although, those cells to your SW seem pretty healthy.

I have high standards I guess. Pencil lines with little to no lightning aren't that thrilling. You take what you can get.. Wind is ripping out ahead so it should perform.

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