Yeoman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Full sun in Georgetown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Eastern Baltimore County: FD units are beginning to report rising waters in the Millers Island area. Residents should prepare now to avoid becoming stranded if conditions worsen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Whoa...updated zone forecasts actually mention tornadoes in the text. That's kind of unusual even for our bigger events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Composite supercell parameter up to 12 just W and SW of DC on latest SPC mesoscale analysis page. Sky brightening here. Seems some breaks to the clouds to the south. Just got back from jury duty; thankfully, I was dismissed in time for whatever show we're going to have. This severe weather season is roughly analogous to Orioles' season. An amazing day early on (derecho, the 17-inning game against Boston) and some big days down the September stretch. And then ... well that's where the analogy ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Whoa...updated zone forecasts actually mention tornadoes in the text. That's kind of unusual even for our bigger events. .THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Gusts for the main events this year: 6/29 - DCA 70 IAD 71 BWI 66 9/8 - DCA 58 IAD 47 BWI 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Gusts for the main events this year: 6/29 - DCA 70 IAD 71 BWI 66 9/8 - DCA 58 IAD 47 BWI 35 Only natural to receive our highest gusts during a hurricane like event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 All the discrete stuff still struggling. Few trying in front of mini bow to sw tho I don't have terribly high hopes in that despite the good parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Winds gusting to 43mph and sustained 36mph last hour at thomas point lighthouse. That's very unusual to have that kind of wind outside of thunderstorms and typically only have winds like this with noreasters and tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 All the discrete stuff still struggling. Few trying in front of mini bow to sw tho I don't have terribly high hopes in that despite the good parameters. Yeah it seems embedded QLCS tornadoes would be the better threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 All the discrete stuff still struggling. Few trying in front of mini bow to sw tho I don't have terribly high hopes in that despite the good parameters. SB CAPE is still pretty low in most areas, except well to the south in NC. If we can get the SB CAPE to increase, then I can see discrete surface-based cells forming, but as of now, that's struggling to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 SB CAPE is still pretty low in most areas, except well to the south in NC. If we can get the SB CAPE to increase, then I can see discrete surface-based cells forming, but as of now, that's struggling to occur. yeah once you get down into central/e nc and se va it looks better still. up here we're racing against the main band and seem more likely to lose that race as the minutes pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 SVR Warning just went up for the DC/Fairfax/Manassas area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 * AT 213 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WARRENTON TO BEALETON...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DESPITE VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 'cool season' events ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 cool season events ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 We could of used some SUN today 'cool season' events ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 it's better than nothing... but even sept 8 with much better instability was lacking that true kick. sun angle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Some of the strongest gusts of the day moving through my area. Looks like I'm in a decent spot on the northern half of the bow approaching. I don't expect to have power after it moves through. It's already flickered off and on 3 times since noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 it's better than nothing... but even sept 8 with much better instability was lacking that true kick. sun angle! I know what you mean. Although, those cells to your SW seem pretty healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just had a gust that had to be over 40-45mph, so leaves me little doubt these storms will have svr gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Some of the strongest gusts of the day moving through my area. Looks like I'm in a decent spot on the northern half of the bow approaching. I don't expect to have power after it moves through. It's already flickered off and on 3 times since noon. That was me. i went over to the big switch on the wall and turned it off and on a couple times. Now I know what its for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'll take a svr threat in an area with better lapse rates please (and yes I'll have fries with that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 yeah once you get down into central/e nc and se va it looks better still. up here we're racing against the main band and seem more likely to lose that race as the minutes pass. Yeah, an area of 2000 J/KG SB CAPE just "formed" there per the latest mesoanalysis, so I'd watch for discrete convection MAYBE trying to form there and head NNE. I'm holding out hope that I'm east enough so I can "buy time" so to speak for discrete convection, but also west enough to stay in an area of lift and instability. But it's going to be tough, though. I really wish the 1000 J/KG of SB CAPE was much more widespread. No sun FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That was me. i went over to the big switch on the wall and turned it off and on a couple times. Now I know what its for. Just stay out of my beer fridge and we're good Mr. Pepco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Up to 3.80" from midnight. Rain has finally let up but only slightly. Starting to get notification of road closures in Fred. Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 'NADER warning in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I know what you mean. Although, those cells to your SW seem pretty healthy. I have high standards I guess. Pencil lines with little to no lightning aren't that thrilling. You take what you can get.. Wind is ripping out ahead so it should perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 TPHL radar indicates a nice couplet near Spring Mount, PA. That's well north of here but no one posts in the Philly forum. Perhaps a tornado warning will be issued there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks like sh*t's about to get real for MoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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