SNO Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Looking at the models...there is a potential for some decent rains on September 18-19...could be a Miller A type event. If it develops, could it be a precursor to winter tracks? One can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Aren't you the guy that predicted the big storm last winter that never happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The thread title is missing "Shake your" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 On 9/12/2012 at 6:17 PM, PhineasC said: Aren't you the guy that predicted the big storm last winter that never happened? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 On 9/12/2012 at 6:17 PM, PhineasC said: Aren't you the guy that predicted the big storm last winter that never happened? Yes...missed that one. Snow last year was hard to come by. This year should be better than last...but that is not saying much. On 9/12/2012 at 6:20 PM, NE Balti Zen said: The thread title is missing "Shake your" Moneymaker On 9/12/2012 at 6:21 PM, mapgirl said: Yes Mapgirl...hope all is well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I'm good, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 On 9/12/2012 at 6:42 PM, SNO said: Moneymaker when at high speeds....rain is my money maker ;-)I am looking forward to some long, over riding rain. Looking for some b-roll shots and it is getting that time of year I will be in DC a lot filming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Sounds to me like a complete shot in the dark and weenie call to suggest a miller a type storm could mean anything in relation to this winter's storms. Anyone else care to agree/disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 The Euro is wet. Not a good track for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 On 9/12/2012 at 5:38 PM, SNO said: Looking at the models...there is a potential for some decent rains on September 18-19...could be a Miller A type event. If it develops, could it be a precursor to winter tracks? One can only hope. I agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 12z Euro putting down 2-3" in the 95 corridor mainly on Tuesday. Still a bad snow track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 On 9/13/2012 at 8:00 PM, Ian said: 12z Euro putting down 2-3" in the 95 corridor mainly on Tuesday. Still a bad snow track. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 On 9/13/2012 at 8:00 PM, Ian said: 12z Euro putting down 2-3" in the 95 corridor mainly on Tuesday. Still a bad snow track. Severe prospects replaced by heavy rain prospects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 On 9/13/2012 at 8:26 PM, Kmlwx said: Severe prospects replaced by heavy rain prospects? I'm not sure I fully see the svr threat right now. I see SPC makes brief mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Looks like the Euro is pretty wet on the 3 hour panels. Anyone got any total precip numbers for the area from the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 00z GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain across LWX CWA through early WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 On 9/14/2012 at 6:38 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks like the Euro is pretty wet on the 3 hour panels. Anyone got any total precip numbers for the area from the Euro? 2-3 Everything is pretty consistent with lots of rain centered on Tuesday. I'd worry it trends west a bit but most everyone should get 1"+ without much trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 12z GFS develops a 1000mb L in SW PA Tues afternoon... wouldnt that increase our chances of severe? Total precip is 1"-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 12z EURO 2"+ 95 and west, 3"+ bullseyes up the spine of the apps... tightish gradient to southeast.. SE VA/E NC get the shaft sorta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 On 9/15/2012 at 7:29 PM, Ian said: 12z EURO 2"+ 95 and west, 3"+ bullseyes up the spine of the apps... tightish gradient to southeast.. SE VA/E NC get the shaft sorta. Interesting. It doesn't look that great here on wunderground, but the long duration must help the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 18z NAM is kind of a debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 On 9/15/2012 at 8:45 PM, MN Transplant said: Interesting. It doesn't look that great here on wunderground, but the long duration must help the totals. You made me look again. Make the 2"+ 1.5"+... forgot there are more contours on source maps now. 2"+ is sorta about the WV/VA border.. mainly elevation areas to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 18z GFS keeps bulk of rain I-81 corridor and way west.... DCA is .5 give or take a tenth by 00z WED... bulk of LWX CWA finishes with around .7-.8" of rain... which is WAY different than the 12z GFS/EC Bad model runs at 18z... throw them out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 West trend of doom. In euro I trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 On 9/15/2012 at 9:57 PM, Ian said: West trend of doom. In euro I trust. Wouldnt the westward move "help" our chances at severe Tuesday evening? I see LWX in their AFD mentioned a chance for some damaging winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 On 9/15/2012 at 10:02 PM, yoda said: Wouldnt the westward move "help" our chances at severe Tuesday evening? I see LWX in their AFD mentioned a chance for some damaging winds... Maybe. It sorta strikes me as messy and not the best timing for now. The main trough is decent but it lags a bit.. but there is a strong area of lift with the front so it seems a bit like last weekend in that sense. However, it looks even more like a cool season event than that one did for now. We do get some damaging winds from the more energetic ones.. pencil line events and such. It's worth watching for more I suppose as the shear is certainly there.. I'm just not sold on the rest coming together to make too much of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 On 9/15/2012 at 9:57 PM, Ian said: West trend of doom. In euro I trust. Euro still trending west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 00z NAM anywhere from .5 (SE MD and E WV/NW VA) to 1.25 (C MD) depending on where you live.... while 00z GFS prints out generally 1" QPF along and west of I-95... maybe 1.25" in C MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 00z run is just like the 12z run. Rain swath straight up the spine of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Starting at 12z the models will start getting wetter...book it....2" by 06z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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