MaineJayhawk Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 What was the temp Eric, winds gusting to 50-60? Great stuff Observatory reported 37F, nw wind 47 gusting to 58 and 0 visibility as I was leaving. Wore hat and gloves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Observatory reported 37F, nw wind 47 gusting to 58 and 0 visibility as I was leaving. Wore hat and gloves. Sweet! Early taste of whats to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Observatory reported 37F, nw wind 47 gusting to 58 and 0 visibility as I was leaving. Wore hat and gloves. How was it at the base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Sure they do--it's length of day. Night starts two hours earlier. If that were true, how do you explain the below which was taken on the longest day of the year? I'm sure I could find many BOX examples like this one, but I picked a random day in June and many WFOs this day were issuing their afternoon forecast for tonight as early as 3-3:15 in the afternoon. It just depends on how complex or difficult the forecast is. FPUS51 KGYX 221858 ZFPGYX ZONE FORECASTS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 258 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 MEZ024-230900- COASTAL CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK 258 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 How was it at the base? I believe it was 58 at that time. I do know that I was sweating at the start when I climbed Eisenhower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 If that were true, how do you explain the below which was taken on the longest day of the year? I'm sure I could find many BOX examples like this one, but I picked a random day in June and many WFOs this day were issuing their afternoon forecast for tonight as early as 3-3:15 in the afternoon. It just depends on how complex or difficult the forecast is. FPUS51 KGYX 221858 ZFPGYX ZONE FORECASTS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 258 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 MEZ024-230900- COASTAL CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK 258 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER $$ Afternoon coffee? Seriously, dude, don't get your panties in a bunch. IBut, I'm glad you had a June 22nd forecast in your archives. by the way--I said p/c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Afternoon coffee? Seriously, dude, don't get your panties in a bunch. IBut, I'm glad you had a June 22nd forecast in your archives. by the way--I said p/c. Panties aren't in a bunch, but when I see something patently false I think it should be corrected even if it's something minor like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Moving along--expect in another week visitors will enjoy. Neat shot, Steve. Congrats. 64/46 here off a high of 65 half an hour ago. Classic. I remember having a 3' milk snake on my kitchen floor during our first winter at KPIT. Stressed. I see you learned to use the multiquote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Panties aren't in a bunch, but when I see something patently false I think it should be corrected even if it's something minor like that. Frankly, I don't think it's patently false. Of course there are exceptions (so is 2' of snow in October). But face the fact--when night comes two hours earlier (or 4 hours earlier), it's incumbant to provide that forecast earlier. Moreover, the duration of the forecast periods (today/tonight/tomorrow) respectively change in duration so it makes sense that afternoon forecasts stay up longer during the summer. Anyway, my initial comment was midly funny (in my mind). I think your reaction (the need to correct "something patently false") though is hysterical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 AFD & ZFP is almost always between 3 and 4pm here no matter the time of yr.. When it's slow weather it might come out early. P&C I never look at so - shrugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 The Rockpile had snow on it for the first time this season It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 All we can hope for is that the Euro ens still have the cooldown and look nothing like the OP..because that was ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The Rockpile had snow on it for the first time this season It's coming Yup...0.2" SN/PL in the 00z ob too.METAR KMWN 152247Z 29049G53KT 0SM FG VV000 01/01 RMK SHPLB10E25SHRAB10E23SHSNB23E25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 It's coming folks. Op Euro is a PHAIL *** ALERT *** LATE OCTOBER COMES IN LATE SEPTEMBER !! http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/09/late-october-in-late-september/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 It's coming folks. Op Euro is a PHAIL *** ALERT *** LATE OCTOBER COMES IN LATE SEPTEMBER !! http://www.wxrisk.co...late-september/ Definitely an entertaining read, lol. He hates those CPC definitions of AO and NAO...I can't say I blame him though...they have changed it several times in the past decade and sometimes it makes no sense. That classic North Atlantic ridge pattern is an example...its not the -NAO loading pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Do the ECWMF ensembles have this pattern continuing beyond 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Do the ECWMF ensembles have this pattern continuing beyond 10 days? Yeah...they are more watered down at that time range, but the general longwave pattern at D15 is a +PNA with an Aleutian low and a trough over the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Ok thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The AFN conspiracy continues....ORH high was 68F and AFN was 71F on a northwest flow well mixed atmosphere where AFN even had 850 temps 1C cooler in this airmass. Their ASOS has either 1 more of these things going on with it: 1.) The siting environment has changed...(i.e. maybe they poured a huge concrete slab right near the site) 2.) The thermometer itself is erroneous. 3.) The ORH thermometer is running too cold now. I think I eliminated #3 pretty fast. The 3 closest mesonet sites had highs today of 68.7F (700 feet in Holden, MA), 66.3F (1100 feet in Rutland, MA), and 69.8F (600 feet in Barre, MA)...this makes it extremely unlikely that the 68F high at ORH is in any major error. KORH is at 1000 feet. However, when one takes a look at the closest 3 mesonet sites to AFN, a different picture emerges. The highs of the 3 closest mesonet sites to AFN were 66.8F (Rindge, NH at 1200 feet), 67.4F (Rindge, NH at 1100 feet), and 68.0F (Ashburnham, MA at 1100 feet)...I did see one closer reading west in Fitzwilliam, NH at 1100 feet of 70.2F, but it wasn't supported by the other Fitzwilliam site with a Davis that recorded a cool 64.1F high temp...also at 1100 feet. KAFN is at 1040 feet. KORE to their southwest but at a mere 550 feet also produced a high of 71F. The reason I bring it up is it has been happening for at least the past couple months. I first started noticing it in summer, but perhaps it started a bit earlier. They never used to run warmer than KORH except for in unique setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Looks like another 60's day is en route--make it a good one. 46.8/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The AFN conspiracy continues....ORH high was 68F and AFN was 71F on a northwest flow well mixed atmosphere where AFN even had 850 temps 1C cooler in this airmass. Their ASOS has either 1 more of these things going on with it: 1.) The siting environment has changed...(i.e. maybe they poured a huge concrete slab right near the site) 2.) The thermometer itself is erroneous. 3.) The ORH thermometer is running too cold now. I think I eliminated #3 pretty fast. The 3 closest mesonet sites had highs today of 68.7F (700 feet in Holden, MA), 66.3F (1100 feet in Rutland, MA), and 69.8F (600 feet in Barre, MA)...this makes it extremely unlikely that the 68F high at ORH is in any major error. KORH is at 1000 feet. However, when one takes a look at the closest 3 mesonet sites to AFN, a different picture emerges. The highs of the 3 closest mesonet sites to AFN were 66.8F (Rindge, NH at 1200 feet), 67.4F (Rindge, NH at 1100 feet), and 68.0F (Ashburnham, MA at 1100 feet)...I did see one closer reading west in Fitzwilliam, NH at 1100 feet of 70.2F, but it wasn't supported by the other Fitzwilliam site with a Davis that recorded a cool 64.1F high temp...also at 1100 feet. KAFN is at 1040 feet. KORE to their southwest but at a mere 550 feet also produced a high of 71F. The reason I bring it up is it has been happening for at least the past couple months. I first started noticing it in summer, but perhaps it started a bit earlier. They never used to run warmer than KORH except for in unique setups. Did you see the MADIS error analysis graph I posted the other day? It appears there was a step change sometime in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Mount Washington this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Brr 41f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 38.7F overnight 40 attm Snow in New England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Did you see the MADIS error analysis graph I posted the other day? It appears there was a step change sometime in February. How does the MADIS analysis look for ASH and EWR? Both places to me run hot, despite their torch locations. I saw a nice slab of asphalt near ASH ASOS site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Interesting difference between the GFS and Euro this week for ern areas. Euro is rain for days it seems, while the GFS op is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 My guess is euro op too aggressive with that, but the ensembles also have this too. Might be something where we split the difference between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Not nearly as chilly as some circles had..The low here was 50.1 Looks like tonight's lows have been raised 5 degrees at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Looks like the cooldown is now pushed back until the 25th or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Looks like the cooldown is now pushed back until the 25th or so There was never a big cool down progged in these parts until maybe late month and even that isn't entirely impressive here. Heart of the cold is west, but we'll get a piece of it. Maybe a bigger piece breaks off and we get a sharp 1 or 2 day cooldown amid all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.