Ian Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I could see 3-5 Tors from NYC on north early next week Are you ever not the most optimistic person in the room? I'd be pretty skeptical based on the 500 pattern alone. It's not as good as last time, though it's a ways out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 So where is this torch we are supposed to be in the midst of. High here today of 78.4F and 75F yesterday, not very torchlike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 So where is this torch we are supposed to be in the midst of. High here today of 78.4F and 75F yesterday, not very torchlike. Torch? Who said there would be a torch, just a little above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Torch? Who said there would be a torch, just a little above normal. My neighbor to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 76/61 warm and delightful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 Can't wait for more 40s and 50s this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Can't wait for more 40s and 50s this weekend. Sunny days and cool nights........great stuff. Next week may perhaps be a very different story, not sure how far north the high dews make it but thats an impressive southerly fetch. By the way I have seen some posts across the board in various places that this would be a great winter pattern, trough axis to me is all wrong, the Upper Plains and western lakes sure, but that screams eastern lakes or HV runner to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Touched 80F at TAN today. PVD with a +2 (+5/-2) today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 Sunny days and cool nights........great stuff. Next week may perhaps be a very different story, not sure how far north the high dews make it but thats an impressive southerly fetch. By the way I have seen some posts across the board in various places that this would be a great winter pattern, trough axis to me is all wrong, the Upper Plains and western lakes sure, but that screams eastern lakes or HV runner to me. Ahhhh......well, don't forget wavelengths would probably be a little different and cold air tends to spread out as it becomes more shallow in depth. The general look of the pattern is decent to me...especially after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Ahhhh......well, don't forget wavelengths would probably be a little different and cold air tends to spread out as it becomes more shallow in depth. The general look of the pattern is decent to me...especially after next week. Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Ahhhh......well, don't forget wavelengths would probably be a little different and cold air tends to spread out as it becomes more shallow in depth. The general look of the pattern is decent to me...especially after next week. Sultginxy loves loves loves bleeding cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 Sultginxy loves loves loves bleeding cold Yes he does. Fetish from is '93-'93 SW RI days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Can't wait for more 40s and 50s this weekend. I may come close to upper 40's tonight. Forecast is for 55F but I've been running cooler that guidance these past couple nights. Looks like I make a run at upper 30s this weekend. Sat/Sun forecasts are 42/43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 I may come close to upper 40's tonight. Forecast is for 55F but I've been running cooler that guidance these past couple nights. Looks like I make a run at upper 30s this weekend. Sat/Sun forecasts are 42/43. Could be Sunday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I may come close to upper 40's tonight. Forecast is for 55F but I've been running cooler that guidance these past couple nights. Looks like I make a run at upper 30s this weekend. Sat/Sun forecasts are 42/43. You are the radiating KING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Yes he does. Fetish from is '93-'93 SW RI days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 lol love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Could be Sunday Night. Agreed. If not than, it will be in the next cool shot for sure. The 18z GFS is downright cold in the long term. You are the radiating KING You know it! This is chilly for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Agreed. If not than, it will be in the next cool shot for sure. The 18z GFS is downright cold in the long term. You know it! This is chilly for the end of the month. Lets hope so! I have gone chilly for October even though I think we warm towards the end of the month into November, but I am hoping for a cold Halloweenie, warm Halloweens suck big time, and I put up the Festivus lights Nov1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Hi Dom! Hope all is well with you and the family:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Suspect I might be done with the 80's. Had one this month (hit it on Sept 7). Topped at 75 today and down hill from here me-thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Some average dates of last occurrence for high temps... HIGH TEMP AVERAGE DATE LAST FALL OCCURRENCE ID 80+ 75+ 70+ 65+ 60+ --- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ALB Sep 25 Oct 11 Oct 31 Nov 15 Dec 5 BDL Oct 1 Oct 21 Nov 9 Nov 22 Dec 16 BDR Sep 24 Oct 8 Oct 26 Nov 16 Dec 9 BGR Sep 17 Sep 29 Oct 9 Oct 31 Nov 17 BOS Sep 29 Oct 19 Nov 8 Nov 26 Dec 24 BTV Sep 18 Oct 1 Oct 21 Nov 13 Nov 26 CAR Sep 3 Sep 21 Oct 2 Oct 13 Oct 30 CON Sep 28 Oct 14 Oct 31 Nov 17 Nov 28 EWR Oct 8 Oct 24 Nov 19 Dec 14 Dec 30 ISP Sep 24 Oct 10 Oct 31 Nov 21 Dec 15 JFK Sep 25 Oct 15 Nov 4 Nov 24 Dec 12 LGA Oct 4 Oct 23 Nov 7 Nov 30 Dec 25 NYC Sep 30 Oct 22 Nov 10 Dec 4 Dec 28 ORH Sep 15 Oct 2 Oct 27 Nov 12 Dec 2 PVD Sep 26 Oct 17 Nov 4 Nov 25 Dec 25 PWM Sep 21 Oct 2 Oct 22 Nov 9 Nov 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Hi Dom! Hope all is well with you and the family:) Same to you! Haven't really had the time to come on here much lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Some average dates of last occurrence for high temps... HIGH TEMP AVERAGE DATE LAST FALL OCCURRENCE ID 80+ 75+ 70+ 65+ 60+ --- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ALB Sep 25 Oct 11 Oct 31 Nov 15 Dec 5 BDL Oct 1 Oct 21 Nov 9 Nov 22 Dec 16 BDR Sep 24 Oct 8 Oct 26 Nov 16 Dec 9 BGR Sep 17 Sep 29 Oct 9 Oct 31 Nov 17 BOS Sep 29 Oct 19 Nov 8 Nov 26 Dec 24 BTV Sep 18 Oct 1 Oct 21 Nov 13 Nov 26 CAR Sep 3 Sep 21 Oct 2 Oct 13 Oct 30 CON Sep 28 Oct 14 Oct 31 Nov 17 Nov 28 EWR Oct 8 Oct 24 Nov 19 Dec 14 Dec 30 ISP Sep 24 Oct 10 Oct 31 Nov 21 Dec 15 JFK Sep 25 Oct 15 Nov 4 Nov 24 Dec 12 LGA Oct 4 Oct 23 Nov 7 Nov 30 Dec 25 NYC Sep 30 Oct 22 Nov 10 Dec 4 Dec 28 ORH Sep 15 Oct 2 Oct 27 Nov 12 Dec 2 PVD Sep 26 Oct 17 Nov 4 Nov 25 Dec 25 PWM Sep 21 Oct 2 Oct 22 Nov 9 Nov 24 Interesting that BTV has a later date for last 80F than ORH but then they have an earlier last 70F. But then ORH is earlier than them (by one day) for average last day of 65F....then BTV is earlier again for last 60F day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Ahem.... 58F and all is well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Looking at data from last month compared to August 2011 its obvious things arent the same this year. Take a look at the QBO30! Easterly QBO supports continued blocking along with a warmer stratosphere. Things are getting interesting. Comparing August 2011 to August 2012 data. NAO: Same this year (September 2011 was positive) August 2011: -1.85 August 2012: -1.39 PNA Neutral this year, Positive last year August 2011: +1.40 August 2012: -.20 AO Neutral this year, Positive last year August 2011: +1.06 August 2012: +.01 AAO Positive this year, Negative last year August 2011: -1.20 August 2012: +.489 AMO Warmer this year August 2011: +.186 August 2012: + .474 PDO Same this year August 2011: -1.86 August 2012: -1.93 QBO30 Stronger Easterly this year August 2011: -0.49 August 2012: -27.94! QBO50 Easterly this year, Westerly last year August 2011: +9.06 August 2012: -9.76 EPO: Positive this year, Negative last year August 2011: -.67 August 2012: +.63 Stratosphere Warmer this year July 2011: -.51 July 2012: -.37 Enso: La Nina Last year, Neutral/Nino this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 It would be nice to get rid of some of these bugs around here SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL USHER IN WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST...WITH PERHAPS FROST POTENTIALLY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO OCCUR. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THERMAL RIDGE MOVES IN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Screaming south winds, should be no issues with inversion, if there is convection involved will mix down efficiently, right now convection lags 850 winds per Euro, if not then Kevs heavy heavy damage enroute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Screaming south winds, should be no issues with inversion, if there is convection involved will mix down efficiently, right now convection lags 850 winds per Euro, if not then Kevs heavy heavy damage enroute. Get excited. Meanwhile, no way this will verify at KPIT, but nice to see the first 30's in the forecast: Today: Sunny. Patchy fog this morning. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 5 mph...becoming south this afternoon. Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening...then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent. Saturday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. Cooler with highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Cooler with lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Night And Monday: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Would be nice to see the 30s again 55F attm. Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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