powderfreak Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 You forgot about MORCH..we had weeks and weeks of this..days and days It's not as much fun during a time when it's supposed to be snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 It's not as much fun during a time when it's supposed to be snowing agree, but at that point, it was a lost season, so it was time to root on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 We may finish much less positive for the month of September than I thought a week or so ago. That cooldown is looking pretty impressive on the ensembles. It also doesn't hurt sneaking a quick one in this weekend to offset the warm Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 SPC MENTIONS US FOR SEVERE DAY 6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Meh... timing looks off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 SPC MENTIONS US FOR SEVERE DAY 6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We may have to watch late Monday into Tuesday AM with the warm front. There is good wind being modeled in the low to mid levels with veering profiles INVOF the front. If we can get sufficient instability to be realized, perhaps we could have another morning supercell suprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Euro has a soaking rain all day Saturday..All other guidance has sunny and 70's. Which to choose LOL I'm hoping you didn't actually look at the Euro and just reached that conclusion through a vague AFD. If you looked at it and came up with that as a forecast I think you're beyond help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 We may have to watch late Monday into Tuesday AM with the warm front. There is good wind being modeled in the low to mid levels with veering profiles INVOF the front. If we can get sufficient instability to be realized, perhaps we could have another morning supercell suprise. Yeah has that look. Beware the LLJ when SSTs are in the mid 70s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 LOL I'm hoping you didn't actually look at the Euro and just reached that conclusion through a vague AFD. If you looked at it and came up with that as a forecast I think you're beyond help. Now you know the method to his madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Just going what our local govt sponsored NWS had written in their AFD. They are the go to organization right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Just going what our local govt sponsored NWS had written in their AFD. They are the go to organization right? Rip 'n Read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 GFS has a big SOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 GFS has a big SOS. Rippin' southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 Rippin' southerly flow. Yeah the juice is loose if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Yeah has that look. Beware the LLJ when SSTs are in the mid 70s lol. water temps are now in the 69-73 range with the 73 in LI sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 GFS has a big SOS. And a pretty significant severe outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 This pattern certainly should help LL and his lack of moisture over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Wednesday looks to be a good soaker, Liking all the cold pool of air that keeps showing up north of the border in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 What a beaut! 77 sunny gentle south breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Northern plains/Lakes may be in the freezer for a while coming up. That looks really cold for them. We should definitely be a lot cooler too, but won't get the core of the colder anomalies like they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Northern plains/Lakes may be in the freezer for a while coming up. That looks really cold for them. We should definitely be a lot cooler too, but won't get the core of the colder anomalies like they will. When can we expect the cooler pattern to set in? After day 10 or so? Are we talking 50's for highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 water temps are now in the 69-73 range with the 73 in LI sound lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 When can we expect the cooler pattern to set in? After day 10 or so? Are we talking 50's for highs? Like a little bear cub...sticking his nose out to see his new surroundings....winter Kevin is slowly leaving is summertime cabana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 When can we expect the cooler pattern to set in? After day 10 or so? Are we talking 50's for highs? Yeah probably final week fo the month should be cool after we cool off this weekend but then rebound for our Sultan event next week....but I don't think right now it looks really cold. 50s for highs in September under a continental airmass is tough...we won't get that chilly I don't think....the N plains are going to get the brunt of it. Maybe we could see upper 50s for highs in the higher terrain one of those days near the end of the month, but that is too far out to say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Like a little bear cub...sticking his nose out to see his new surroundings....winter Kevin is slowly leaving is summertime cabana. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Actually looking at the models gives a pretty good indication where the cold air is pooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 GFS is an absolute soaker next week, wow. Pretty decent little southern stream vortmax helps get things going ahead of the main cut off low by h114-120. That really allows for some serious WAA induced precip...500mb heights briefly top 5700m to the Canadian border at 144. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Couple of TOR's with the warmfront early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 wow at the gfs, glad I did not take out the ac units looks like it could get pretty humid next week with that southerly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 lol Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 wow at the gfs, glad I did not take out the ac units looks like it could get pretty humid next week with that southerly flow Yes. I was going to mention that myself. Lots of WAA and even its its 75F at the surface, dews will probably be near 70 as well. Gross for up here with no AC...terirble sleeping wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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