2012 3rd Hottest Summer Ever for US

[TerryM]

I'm not wrong nor am I right.

You're half right.

Terry

[ORH_wxman]

I think the reasons for such adjustments in economic data are a bit more obvious. Temperature data is pretty straightforward compared to economic data, so I have to wonder about why exactly some adjustments are made.

I have no idea if Goddard's graph is correct ornot for TOBS...but if it is...then I would be curious as to why the increase in recent years for TOBS, especially since most of the TOBS issues are prior to the current period.

The Menne et al article I read a couple months ago stated that TOBS accounted for about 0.02C per decade of bias in the 1985-2006 time period which fits with the notion that the majority of stations by 1985 had switched to a morning observation time.

So either Goddard's graph is incorrect or the data is being adjusted much more than the Menne et al paper suggests its true impact is.

[tacoman25]

I have no idea if Goddard's graph is correct ornot for TOBS...but if it is...then I would be curious as to why the increase in recent years for TOBS, especially since most of the TOBS issues are prior to the current period.

The Menne et al article I read a couple months ago stated that TOBS accounted for about 0.02C per decade of bias in the 1985-2006 time period which fits with the notion that the majority of stations by 1985 had switched to a morning observation time.

So either Goddard's graph is incorrect or the data is being adjusted much more than the Menne et al paper suggests its true impact is.

Yeah, that was the main question I had: why the increase in adjustments recently?

[ben4vols]

Jeez!

You can't believe how hard it is to give credit to Spencer for anything. That he's not so stupid as to use a "Goddard" graph places him ahead of at least one of our posters, but still at the low end of the credibility curve.

If I recall correctly even Watts has dismissed "Goddard". I don't believe that anyone wishing to be taken seriously would post or defend anything produced by such a widely acknowledged fraud, and I suppose that Dr Roy still maintains illusions of adequacy.

Terry

While "Goddard" may be wrong on a number of issues (which I won't deny) or is disingenuous at times (which I won't deny) he usually gives links to the data he uses in his graphs.

[TerryM]

While "Goddard" may be wrong on a number of issues (which I won't deny) or is disingenuous at times (which I won't deny) he usually gives links to the data he uses in his graphs.

Why on earth would you even visit the site of someone whom you acknowledged to be a liar?

Terry

[ben4vols]

Why on earth would you even visit the site of someone whom you acknowledged to be a liar?

Terry

I don't know if I would call him a liar. I go there because every now and again he has some interesting stuff (I've even seen Don post there from time to time). I visit quite a few climate blogs from both sides of the issue. None are perfect but all have their moments.

[TerryM]

I don't know if I would call him a liar.

You referred to his as being disingenuous, disingenuous is cognate to liar, it's just dressed up for polite society.

Anyway it's probably impolite to speak in these terms of the recently un-dead ;<{

As far as the hottest US summer - my AC just gave up the ghost here in Canada. It struggled to provide a comfort level that I'd grown accustom to and will be missed until a replacement is procured.

The maid just mentioned that her electric bill was $750 for the past 2 months. She was running the AC 24/7 & is contemplating spending next summer with dread. (either that or she was angling for a raise)

Terry

[tacoman25]

You referred to his as being disingenuous, disingenuous is cognate to liar, it's just dressed up for polite society.

Anyway it's probably impolite to speak in these terms of the recently un-dead ;<{

As far as the hottest US summer - my AC just gave up the ghost here in Canada. It struggled to provide a comfort level that I'd grown accustom to and will be missed until a replacement is procured.

The maid just mentioned that her electric bill was $750 for the past 2 months. She was running the AC 24/7 & is contemplating spending next summer with dread. (either that or she was angling for a raise)

Terry

Well, you should be alright for the next 8 months at least.

[donsutherland1]

What do you think would cause such differences between neighbor USCRN/USHCN stations? Only stations that were close in elevation were used. So elevation can be thrown out.

I believe the approach Mr. Watts and Dr. Spencer are using to find large disparities likely results from a flawed analytical methodology. Here's what the NOAA said about the USHCN and USCRN data in its most recent annual report on the USCRN (p.19):

USCRN and USHCN V2 air temperature measurements cannot be directly compared in raw form, as air temperature is measured by an instrument aspirated by a fan in the case of USCRN and by natural ventilation in USCRN V2. However, a highly significant regression relationship can be constructed between the two data types, and then used to generate a synthetic time series for the 1971–2000 normals period at the location of the USCRN sites. This time series can then be used to generate 30-year estimated air temperature normals for the USCRN stations. Subtracting the estimated normals from the monthly USCRN air temperatures generates a time series of monthly air temperature departures from normal that are compatible with the predecessor observation technology used in constructing the USHCN V2 but with year-to-year changes that are independently measured.

The USCRN annual CONUS air temperature departures for the period from 2004–08 are extremely well aligned with those derived from the national USHCN V2 (Figure 15). For these five years, the USCRN explains 99.7% of the maximum temperature and 99.5% of the minimum temperature variance in the USHCN V2 annual air temperature departures, with a mean bias of -0.03°C for both maximum and minimum temperature. This finding provides independent verification that the homogenization adjustments made to the USHCN V2 data do not lead, in the last five years of the record, to a different result than one would derive from science-quality measurements taken at pristine locations.

[ben4vols]

I believe the approach Mr. Watts and Dr. Spencer are using to find large disparities likely results from a flawed analytical methodology. Here's what the NOAA said about the USHCN and USCRN data in its most recent annual report on the USCRN (p.19):

USCRN and USHCN V2 air temperature measurements cannot be directly compared in raw form, as air temperature is measured by an instrument aspirated by a fan in the case of USCRN and by natural ventilation in USCRN V2. However, a highly significant regression relationship can be constructed between the two data types, and then used to generate a synthetic time series for the 1971–2000 normals period at the location of the USCRN sites. This time series can then be used to generate 30-year estimated air temperature normals for the USCRN stations. Subtracting the estimated normals from the monthly USCRN air temperatures generates a time series of monthly air temperature departures from normal that are compatible with the predecessor observation technology used in constructing the USHCN V2 but with year-to-year changes that are independently measured.

The USCRN annual CONUS air temperature departures for the period from 2004–08 are extremely well aligned with those derived from the national USHCN V2 (Figure 15). For these five years, the USCRN explains 99.7% of the maximum temperature and 99.5% of the minimum temperature variance in the USHCN V2 annual air temperature departures, with a mean bias of -0.03°C for both maximum and minimum temperature. This finding provides independent verification that the homogenization adjustments made to the USHCN V2 data do not lead, in the last five years of the record, to a different result than one would derive from science-quality measurements taken at pristine locations.

So it all comes down to an aspirated temperature gauge? I guess that is even more reason to keep adjusting non-aspirated temperature recordings upwards?

[tacoman25]

Run that temp anomaly today.... I went from +8 to +2.8 in 3 days. This month will be below average for everyone east of the Mississippi.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's sad how many regions have to be warm for us to get cool or cold now days.

the 18z GFS really overwhelms the lower heights.

[tacoman25]

It's sad how many regions have to be warm for us to get cool or cold now days.

the 18z GFS really overwhelms the lower heights.

This thread is about U.S. anomalies, not the globe. Cold records will fall throughout the Midwest next week, putting serious dents in monthly anomalies. We'll all just have to deal with it.

[donsutherland1]

So it all comes down to an aspirated temperature gauge? I guess that is even more reason to keep adjusting non-aspirated temperature recordings upwards?

The raw data needs to be adjusted to address biases that would otherwise exist in the climate record. The adjustments are robust and don't compromise the climate record.

From the NOAA's report:

This finding provides independent verification that the homogenization adjustments made to the USHCN V2 data do not lead, in the last five years of the record, to a different result than one would derive from science-quality measurements taken at pristine locations.

[Jonger]

As far as the hottest US summer - my AC just gave up the ghost here in Canada. It struggled to provide a comfort level that I'd grown accustom to and will be missed until a replacement is procured.

The maid just mentioned that her electric bill was $750 for the past 2 months. She was running the AC 24/7 & is contemplating spending next summer with dread. (either that or she was angling for a raise)

Terry

August was 0.3F degrees above the 30 year average.... So that's surprising, especially since your weather is downstream of my own.

[TerryM]

Feels a little like piling on, but this pertinent piece of poesy from the pen of Jim Pettit, usually renown for his Death Spiral Graphics, deserves a wider audience:

------------------

Ode to the Apoplectic Skeptic

Joe Bastardi found a cherry,

Making Joey very merry.

And that cherry that he found

Was quickly picked, then passed around.

And skeptics, in their desperation,

Danced and screamed in jubilation,

For that cherry, they were told,

Was evidence of coming cold.

"The ice is back!" Bastardi's shout.

"It's cooling fast, without a doubt!

And someday, right around the bend,

This 'Global Warming' lie will end!

And ice will come in lofty sheets

While wooly mammoths roam the streets!

And best of all--I promise you--

We'll hear no more of CO2!"

But poor Bastardi--foolish chap--

Had never learned to read a map.

Through ignorance and wishful thinking,

Joe had erred: the ice was shrinking.

Yes, this climate malcontent

Was unaware that ice extent

Continued melting, never ceasing;

Arctic ice was still decreasing.

The question, then: should Joe admit

His Arctic knowledge deficit?

Or should he sing his normal song,

Proclaiming that those maps were wrong?

Alas, he did what "skeptics" do:

He wrote a bunch--sans peer review--

That scientists had missed, not he...

Then climbed back up his cherry tree.

Jim Pettit

-----------------------

Cherry trees were recognized as detrimental to the future of America by our precociously prescient Founding Father, who in his youth is reported to have proclaimed that he had 'done it with my little hatchet', when standing accused of arborocide.

Terry

[The_Global_Warmer]

This thread is about U.S. anomalies, not the globe. Cold records will fall throughout the Midwest next week, putting serious dents in monthly anomalies. We'll all just have to deal with it.

Actually it's about 2012 being the 3rd hottest summer by met definition ended 15 days ago.

you originally hijacked it with the 4th post by trying to bring 2009 into the conversation the only very recent cool summer.

[tacoman25]

Actually it's about 2012 being the 3rd hottest summer by met definition ended 15 days ago.

you originally hijacked it with the 4th post by trying to bring 2009 into the conversation the only very recent cool summer.

I didn't hijack anything. I just asked a question about a recent summer's ranking, in relation to the op.

Why then did you bring up in the 6th post September's temperatures, if this thread was only about met summer? Because people were speculating on where this year would end up in rank. And yet I'm not accusing you of hijacking the thread. I just found it amusing how you had to try to downplay the upcoming cool Sep temperatures by saying other places in the globe "had to be so warm" for us to get cold. Did you make a similar point last winter about how much of Asia/Europe was freezing in Jan/Feb while we were toasty here in North America?

[ben4vols]

The raw data needs to be adjusted to address biases that would otherwise exist in the climate record. The adjustments are robust and don't compromise the climate record.

From the NOAA's report:

This finding provides independent verification that the homogenization adjustments made to the USHCN V2 data do not lead, in the last five years of the record, to a different result than one would derive from science-quality measurements taken at pristine locations.

That is bull excerement. The pristine stations (USCRN) are coming in much cooler than USHCN V2 stations post or pre adjustments. Which is why I ask, why are they continuing to adjust USHCN temperatures upwards when the pristine stations are cooler then pre-adjusted USHCN readings? Also why are they spending money on a system of much more reliable climate monitoring only to rarely mention it or use it?

[ORH_wxman]

I didn't hijack anything. I just asked a question about a recent summer's ranking, in relation to the op.

Why then did you bring up in the 6th post September's temperatures, if this thread was only about met summer? Because people were speculating on where this year would end up in rank. And yet I'm not accusing you of hijacking the thread. I just found it amusing how you had to try to downplay the upcoming cool Sep temperatures by saying other places in the globe "had to be so warm" for us to get cold. Did you make a similar point last winter about how much of Asia/Europe was freezing in Jan/Feb while we were toasty here in North America?

I think everyone is going to emphasize what they like in these threads. Friv is going to emphasize warmth because that is what he usually emphasizes...some of us are going to emphasize colder shots. In the end what does it mean? This year has a great chance to become the warmest on record for the U.S....though we'll have to see how the autumn pattern plays out.

However, using U.S. temperatures in trying to show a larger scale trend won't get us anywhere.