jm1220 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the S/W gets overwhelmed by a stronger PV and doesn't amplify in time to develop a storm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Not giving up until 12z tomorrow; the 18z runs aren't going to be the deal breaker IMO. the deal breaker is the consistency of the Euro...after initially showing a storm several days ago, it has been a rock steady NO....North American models have gone back and forth and would not be surprised if the 0z run "teases" some yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 No energy to be seen at 66. Dead on the 18z, at least. lets wait till the ensemble mean says anything...... you do realize 90% of the model runs have been jumping 1000 miles east or west... its about as reliable as me saying I will be on time for class... If anything Id wait till 00z runs come out and if they are still showing a similar solution as this then that may indicate a no go for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Its actually pretty close at 96... Despite the complete lack of southern stream...its still close to a storm at 96 hours- a slowwwwwwwwww run this time- gave the PV enough time to move west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Weak clipper at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS definitly trended towards the idea of a weaker S/W however....it still phased with the PV just a tad too late. Absolutely, if it phases earlier, it could be a moderate hit..Which is why im not giving up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldsmoke Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Still brings some decent snows into ME. 50 miles west and we are in business. Not giving up just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 honestly, I believe its reasonable to believe that by Friday's 12Z run we'll be darn close to the ultimate solution the PAC low won't be on land (from what I read in another thread I believe) until tomorrow's 12Z run before that time, all the models are guessing, maybe better than us humans, but guessing none the less Oh I am not saying this has no shot or that the models are probably right at this range...but the chances of getting the trend we need was much greater with that event last year then with this one...that was my only point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The NYC NWS has an excellent forecast discussion. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off In addition: this storm is looking somewhat more like last years storm when the models did not settle on a real solution until a few days out. The ECMWF seems to have track the storm way too far east, it did this for the past Midwest blizzard too and then re-introduced it right before the storm. Is the great model is having trouble the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NYC NWS has an excellent forecast discussion. http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off In addition: this storm is looking somewhat more like last years storm when the models did not settle on a real solution until a few days out. The ECMWF seems to have track the storm way too far east, it did this for the past Midwest blizzard too and then re-introduced it right before the storm. Is the great model is having trouble the year? simply wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NYC NWS has an excellent forecast discussion. http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off In addition: this storm is looking somewhat more like last years storm when the models did not settle on a real solution until a few days out. The ECMWF seems to have track the storm way too far east, it did this for the past Midwest blizzard too and then re-introduced it right before the storm. Is the great model is having trouble the year? Im not sure if they were looking at a fake euro or what, but the euro had the storm NW of every other model from the start. So they are WAY off on that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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