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18z Models 12/15/2010


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I'm not throwing the towel in at this point, however

it was the 12Z run on 12/17/09 before the NAM latched on to the big event last year

up to that point, it was a miss for DCA/BWI

and don't make me post the maps to confirm that, trust me, it was 12Z run on 12/17/09 before it showed a decent hit for us, and then got better from there

true but in that event we had a good STJ wave and we only needed a north trend and a little more phasing, not a faster development of the low. In my experience those 2 tend to happen because the models sometimes are too far south with the H5 features from outside 72 hours. Getting a faster amplification is less common and not as usual of a model error so this time we are rooting for a more rare occurance. Its kinda like last time we had to hit a foul shot, and this time we have to hit a half court shot.

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true but in that event we had a good STJ wave and we only needed a north trend and a little more phasing, not a faster development of the low. In my experience those 2 tend to happen because the models sometimes are too far south with the H5 features from outside 72 hours. Getting a faster amplification is less common and not as usual of a model error so this time we are rooting for a more rare occurance. Its kinda like last time we had to hit a foul shot, and this time we have to hit a half court shot.

Phew, good thing I'm a good shooter :) But seriously, you are right about that. The STJ is less firmly in place, and obviously we were in an El Nino, so I mean with that in mind yes the situation is much different in those aspects. I don't see enhanced amplification in models usually...if anything they sometimes back off.

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true but in that event we had a good STJ wave and we only needed a north trend and a little more phasing, not a faster development of the low. In my experience those 2 tend to happen because the models sometimes are too far south with the H5 features from outside 72 hours. Getting a faster amplification is less common and not as usual of a model error so this time we are rooting for a more rare occurance. Its kinda like last time we had to hit a foul shot, and this time we have to hit a half court shot.

honestly, I believe its reasonable to believe that by Friday's 12Z run we'll be darn close to the ultimate solution

the PAC low won't be on land (from what I read in another thread I believe) until tomorrow's 12Z run

before that time, all the models are guessing, maybe better than us humans, but guessing none the less

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It seems to me a slower system would give the PV time to move west and allowing the storm to come up the coast. The faster it gets here the further south and east it will be, which seems to be the major difference in the models right now.

Well yes, if it is less progressive then it will certainly be more west because of the time it not only gives the PV but to change the orientation of the trough. This run of the NAM was certainly slower, which I could see coming since the first storm was shown lingering in the MidAtl.

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18z GFS doesnt either apparently. Almost not even there by 48 hr. If 0z holds with this tonight its done I would say.

I think the models were underestimating a day or 2 ago the strength of the system coming across the country tomorrow

that, I believe, is what is killing the weekend event

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was reading afternoon talk by okx which was updated at 3:59 looks positive so far for my area at moment

BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOW TRACK...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING

SNOWS IS OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY

OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND (DEPENDING ON MIXING THERE). SINCE THERE

IS STILL AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS

THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL

HIGHLIGHT THAT EASTERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW.

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It's pretty much over. Out to 84.

Lessons learned...no matter what....if the Euro isn't on board to some degree, chances are it aint happenin, no matter what the American models say. 0z will pull us back in and then 12z Thursday should be the final nail. For those that get snow tomorrow, enjoy it.

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be very careful with the amount of energy involved....the s/w is still not in a position yet where its being properly analyzed.

I know what Dave posted in the 12z thread, but to me, it was never about the Euro bias of leaving too much energy back. Go compare T+24 in the GFS and Euro. The GFS is more amplified over SoCal and that trend continues through both runs. It's an initialization thing, not a bias thing. I'm not saying which one is right, but that's where the differences are. Once the s/w is properly sampled tomorrow, the solutions will converge.

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