psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm not throwing the towel in at this point, however it was the 12Z run on 12/17/09 before the NAM latched on to the big event last year up to that point, it was a miss for DCA/BWI and don't make me post the maps to confirm that, trust me, it was 12Z run on 12/17/09 before it showed a decent hit for us, and then got better from there true but in that event we had a good STJ wave and we only needed a north trend and a little more phasing, not a faster development of the low. In my experience those 2 tend to happen because the models sometimes are too far south with the H5 features from outside 72 hours. Getting a faster amplification is less common and not as usual of a model error so this time we are rooting for a more rare occurance. Its kinda like last time we had to hit a foul shot, and this time we have to hit a half court shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 true but in that event we had a good STJ wave and we only needed a north trend and a little more phasing, not a faster development of the low. In my experience those 2 tend to happen because the models sometimes are too far south with the H5 features from outside 72 hours. Getting a faster amplification is less common and not as usual of a model error so this time we are rooting for a more rare occurance. Its kinda like last time we had to hit a foul shot, and this time we have to hit a half court shot. Phew, good thing I'm a good shooter But seriously, you are right about that. The STJ is less firmly in place, and obviously we were in an El Nino, so I mean with that in mind yes the situation is much different in those aspects. I don't see enhanced amplification in models usually...if anything they sometimes back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Where is your scientific reasoning?? Knowing how to read a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 true but in that event we had a good STJ wave and we only needed a north trend and a little more phasing, not a faster development of the low. In my experience those 2 tend to happen because the models sometimes are too far south with the H5 features from outside 72 hours. Getting a faster amplification is less common and not as usual of a model error so this time we are rooting for a more rare occurance. Its kinda like last time we had to hit a foul shot, and this time we have to hit a half court shot. honestly, I believe its reasonable to believe that by Friday's 12Z run we'll be darn close to the ultimate solution the PAC low won't be on land (from what I read in another thread I believe) until tomorrow's 12Z run before that time, all the models are guessing, maybe better than us humans, but guessing none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Knowing how to read a map? sim radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 sim radar? 700RH, h5..it looks like it will come together just east of us. But its the 84 hour nam...not throwing in the towel based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 700RH, h5..it looks like it will come together just east of us. But its the 84 hour nam...not throwing in the towel based on that. I am just messing with you, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It seems to me a slower system would give the PV time to move west and allowing the storm to come up the coast. The faster it gets here the further south and east it will be, which seems to be the major difference in the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It seems to me a slower system would give the PV time to move west and allowing the storm to come up the coast. The faster it gets here the further south and east it will be, which seems to be the major difference in the models right now. Well yes, if it is less progressive then it will certainly be more west because of the time it not only gives the PV but to change the orientation of the trough. This run of the NAM was certainly slower, which I could see coming since the first storm was shown lingering in the MidAtl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z GFS a bit south. I expect a bit north at 00z and that should just about do it. 1.5'' for Baltimore would be kinda the max, but a bit more liquid with the good ratios would be winnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z way flatter with the southern wave at 42 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think the Euro just won again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 i dont even believe in the southern wave anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Isn't the 18z the least reliable of the model runs? Or am I totally mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Isn't the 18z the least reliable of the model runs? Or am I totally mistaken? Thats an old myth. The model is assimilated with many of the same data sources and techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 i dont even believe in the southern wave anymore 18z GFS doesnt either apparently. Almost not even there by 48 hr. If 0z holds with this tonight its done I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 quite a fetch of moisture for tomorrow's developing system http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 No energy to be seen at 66. Dead on the 18z, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z GFS doesnt either apparently. Almost not even there by 48 hr. If 0z holds with this tonight its done I would say. I think the models were underestimating a day or 2 ago the strength of the system coming across the country tomorrow that, I believe, is what is killing the weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think it has to do with the positioning of the PV on the 18z...looks to me to be further east and doesn't get out of the way in time like some of the other models have been indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 As of right now, this doesn't look too good. 48 hours looks to have negligible southern energy (just like the euro). Time has run out on this one it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 You know you are in bad shape when the 18Z GFS gives up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 No energy to be seen at 66. Dead on the 18z, at least. be very careful with the amount of energy involved....the s/w is still not in a position yet where its being properly analyzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 true BUT there is no new RAOB data available at 18Z... Thats an old myth. The model is assimilated with many of the same data sources and techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 two lows? this is unsettleing at the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 was reading afternoon talk by okx which was updated at 3:59 looks positive so far for my area at moment BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOW TRACK...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND (DEPENDING ON MIXING THERE). SINCE THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO...THOUGH WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT EASTERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's pretty much over. Out to 84. Lessons learned...no matter what....if the Euro isn't on board to some degree, chances are it aint happenin, no matter what the American models say. 0z will pull us back in and then 12z Thursday should be the final nail. For those that get snow tomorrow, enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 be very careful with the amount of energy involved....the s/w is still not in a position yet where its being properly analyzed. I know what Dave posted in the 12z thread, but to me, it was never about the Euro bias of leaving too much energy back. Go compare T+24 in the GFS and Euro. The GFS is more amplified over SoCal and that trend continues through both runs. It's an initialization thing, not a bias thing. I'm not saying which one is right, but that's where the differences are. Once the s/w is properly sampled tomorrow, the solutions will converge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah 18z GFS wont do it, 84 hour barely has any precip on Carolina coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah 18z GFS wont do it, 84 hour barely has any precip on Carolina coasts. GFS definitly trended towards the idea of a weaker S/W however....it still phased with the PV just a tad too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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