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18z Models 12/15/2010


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Looking at tomorrow's events, 18Z seems to have smeared the precipitation out as compared to 12Z, a little bit less for DC area and more rain/ice for folks on the VA / Carolina border.

Yeah, its hard to nail where that best banding sets up--- due to the lift. My guess is that 20 miles to the north of the change over line will be the heavies snows. At some point the wAA just can dislodge the colder temps and the best forcing sets up there. Also hints a dry slot somewhere in SWVA.

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Yeah, its hard to nail where that best banding sets up--- due to the lift. My guess is that 20 miles to the north of the change over line will be the heavies snows. At some point the wAA just can dislodge the colder temps and the best forcing sets up there. Also hints a dry slot somewhere in SWVA.

east of the mts, CHO seems to be the sweet spot from what I'm seeing on this run

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The dreaded dry slot.. watch that kind of talk. I think from what I am seeing this is a solid 4-5" event for Roanoke and Lynchburg.

Yeah, its hard to nail where that best banding sets up--- due to the lift. My guess is that 20 miles to the north of the change over line will be the heavies snows. At some point the wAA just can dislodge the colder temps and the best forcing sets up there. Also hints a dry slot somewhere in SWVA.

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This is my latest thinking -

http://tinyurl. com/35xydwd

If any of you remember my percentages from yesterday, here are them again ( updated ).

6"+ snow for VA - 35-50% chance

6"+ snow for MID ATL - 12-35% chance

6"+ snow for NEW ENGLAND - 40-60% chance.

Sorta like a more descriptive HPC snow prob in text.

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NAM at H5 looks great at 60 hours but the surface reflection is nil thru 60.

Agreed. The 12z NAM had the Polar Vortex (PV) in two main chunks, with the stronger one over Hudson Bay, Canada. Now, the 18z NAM has consolidated the PV into one main entity, AND the PV is noticeably stronger. Just a reminder to the newcomers on the board that you must watch both the placement AND strength of features at the mid/upper level features of the atmosphere.

gLbsXo.gif

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I dunno guys, I'm leaning toward Mitchnick's opinion. It would probably be too little too late for down this way at least. SNE has a chance.

True Randy, and like I said the surface is a bit lacking. Not trying to be redundant, but more importantly the upper levels are not bad really. If things were to get going earlier involving the precip and the phasing it'd solidify this as an improvement. I certainly wouldn't call it a deprovement though.

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I'm not throwing the towel in at this point, however

it was the 12Z run on 12/17/09 before the NAM latched on to the big event last year

up to that point, it was a miss for DCA/BWI

and don't make me post the maps to confirm that, trust me, it was 12Z run on 12/17/09 before it showed a decent hit for us, and then got better from there

I get nervous extrapolating the 84HR NAM. The overall parts look OK, but we are running out of time as you alluded to.

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I'm not throwing the towel in at this point, however

it was the 12Z run on 12/17/09 before the NAM latched on to the big event last year

up to that point, it was a miss for DCA/BWI

and don't make me post the maps to confirm that, trust me, it was 12Z run on 12/17/09 before it showed a decent hit for us, and then got better from there

If I remember correctly it was still progged as a major hit for southern/central VA then. Thats not the case now.

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