stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well, hopefully we can get some good trends starting now. HPC has so far seemingly tossed the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 srefs are north with #1 qpf.. DC might be solid for 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM is perfect for my region--runs the best VV's right along 460..its a smidge south, but that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looking at tomorrow's events, 18Z seems to have smeared the precipitation out as compared to 12Z, a little bit less for DC area and more rain/ice for folks on the VA / Carolina border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looking at tomorrow's events, 18Z seems to have smeared the precipitation out as compared to 12Z, a little bit less for DC area and more rain/ice for folks on the VA / Carolina border. Yeah, its hard to nail where that best banding sets up--- due to the lift. My guess is that 20 miles to the north of the change over line will be the heavies snows. At some point the wAA just can dislodge the colder temps and the best forcing sets up there. Also hints a dry slot somewhere in SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah, its hard to nail where that best banding sets up--- due to the lift. My guess is that 20 miles to the north of the change over line will be the heavies snows. At some point the wAA just can dislodge the colder temps and the best forcing sets up there. Also hints a dry slot somewhere in SWVA. east of the mts, CHO seems to be the sweet spot from what I'm seeing on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM at H5 looks great at 60 hours but the surface reflection is nil thru 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Precip beginning to get going at hr 72, with h5 looking pretty darn good if you ask me. As I expected, timing will be a bit later, but still the better trend seems to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Huge shift in regards to the shortwave and the PV at 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM at H5 looks great at 60 hours but the surface reflection is nil thru 60. Check 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Huge shift in regards to the shortwave and the PV at 72... Looks good so far 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM at H5 looks great at 60 hours but the surface reflection is nil thru 60. not as good as 12z imho maybe a bit of a delay again, which can only help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The dreaded dry slot.. watch that kind of talk. I think from what I am seeing this is a solid 4-5" event for Roanoke and Lynchburg. Yeah, its hard to nail where that best banding sets up--- due to the lift. My guess is that 20 miles to the north of the change over line will be the heavies snows. At some point the wAA just can dislodge the colder temps and the best forcing sets up there. Also hints a dry slot somewhere in SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM continues to handle the features out West differently than the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fameso Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This is my latest thinking - http://tinyurl. com/35xydwd If any of you remember my percentages from yesterday, here are them again ( updated ). 6"+ snow for VA - 35-50% chance 6"+ snow for MID ATL - 12-35% chance 6"+ snow for NEW ENGLAND - 40-60% chance. Sorta like a more descriptive HPC snow prob in text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 miss on the NAM for sure too little, too late it seems Ummm, it's just phasing at 84 and it looks good to my amateur eyes. It's heading NNE: 50/50 is in place, HP to the North, SLP spinning up off of SC....how do you see a "miss for sure"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 not as good as 12z imho maybe a bit of a delay again, which can only help I can only comment post 72hours, but from there it looks like a significant improvement for the mid Atlantic- -Stronger southern stream energy -Stronger 200mb streak in the pacific (deepens the tough) -Shift south and west in the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That clears things up. Looks pretty good at h5 as well, but once again not a great surface reflection. In that aspect (a la the surface) things are a bit further east, but in my opinion the UL's are better. Also, would like to see the precip fire earlier at the surface, it took a while this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 miss on the NAM for sure too little, too late it seems That is absolutely not the case. As the poster above said...it is phasing at 84h. You might want to see the 300/500mb levels before typing a statement like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I dunno guys, I'm leaning toward Mitchnick's opinion. It would probably be too little too late for down this way at least. SNE has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM at H5 looks great at 60 hours but the surface reflection is nil thru 60. Agreed. The 12z NAM had the Polar Vortex (PV) in two main chunks, with the stronger one over Hudson Bay, Canada. Now, the 18z NAM has consolidated the PV into one main entity, AND the PV is noticeably stronger. Just a reminder to the newcomers on the board that you must watch both the placement AND strength of features at the mid/upper level features of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I dunno guys, I'm leaning toward Mitchnick's opinion. It would probably be too little too late for down this way at least. SNE has a chance. Where is your scientific reasoning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I dunno guys, I'm leaning toward Mitchnick's opinion. It would probably be too little too late for down this way at least. SNE has a chance. True Randy, and like I said the surface is a bit lacking. Not trying to be redundant, but more importantly the upper levels are not bad really. If things were to get going earlier involving the precip and the phasing it'd solidify this as an improvement. I certainly wouldn't call it a deprovement though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I dunno guys, I'm leaning toward Mitchnick's opinion. It would probably be too little too late for down this way at least. SNE has a chance. Possibly based on the surface but that's really not what the 500mb/300mb shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'll sign for that 18z NAM 84hr map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Did anyone post the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Did anyone post the Euro ensembles? Yeah in the New England thread, they are way SE of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I dunno guys, I'm leaning toward Mitchnick's opinion. It would probably be too little too late for down this way at least. SNE has a chance. yes, I should have been clearer looking at the RH and sim/radar in particular, it looks bad for DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm not throwing the towel in at this point, however it was the 12Z run on 12/17/09 before the NAM latched on to the big event last year up to that point, it was a miss for DCA/BWI and don't make me post the maps to confirm that, trust me, it was 12Z run on 12/17/09 before it showed a decent hit for us, and then got better from there I get nervous extrapolating the 84HR NAM. The overall parts look OK, but we are running out of time as you alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm not throwing the towel in at this point, however it was the 12Z run on 12/17/09 before the NAM latched on to the big event last year up to that point, it was a miss for DCA/BWI and don't make me post the maps to confirm that, trust me, it was 12Z run on 12/17/09 before it showed a decent hit for us, and then got better from there If I remember correctly it was still progged as a major hit for southern/central VA then. Thats not the case now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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