Analog96 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Looks like it wont make it for longest lasting ever...only Canadian and NOGAPS support the SW track, which is like a kiss of death to that scenario. HWRF, which has been a pretty good model this year, supports something a little different. It takes Nadine ESEwrd, but very slowly. If it can do that, it could retain TS status a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Nadine back up to a hurricane as of 11 AM. FTR, the longest lasting storm last decade... Hurricane Kyle (2002)... had 89 advisories issued on it. We are at 64 with Nadine now. That would be six more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 This has been one interesting storm to track from a geographical, temporal and meteorological perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 12z Euro shows Nadine absorbed by a big extratropical low in one week...but it's immediately substituted by a Cape Verde storm that, you guessed it, gets blocked from it's initial recurve and starts moving WSW in the C Atl at the end of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Nadine now at 80 mph and probably looks the best it's looked overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Nadine now at 80 mph and probably looks the best it's looked overall. Could strengthen a little bit more, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Nadine has been around for 20 days now, the record longest lived TC in the world is 30 days, 28 days for the Atlantic. This could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 The interaction between Nadine & the low it'll eventually merge with should provide an excellent example of the Fujiwhara effect. The latest runs of the EURO actually have Nadine winning the battle, although she does end up extra-tropical. If you check out the maps, you can see how the strong circulation of Nadine basically slingshots around the weaker ET low, eventually becoming the dominant LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Nadine up to 90 mph and 979 mb ...WOW! 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 72 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012 ...LONG-LASTING NADINE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ONCE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 38.6W ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Nadine may have the longest gap between two hurricane intensity days for a TC. Nadine went from 9-16 to 9-28 before regaining hurricane strength. Alberto went from 8-14-00 to 8-18-00 before becoming a hurricane again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 This storm is absolutely amazing. Just incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 lol... BULLETIN HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 73 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012 ...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 39.2W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 This has been my favorite storm of the year. I love these odd anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 lol... BULLETIN HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 73 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012 ...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 39.2W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES This belongs in Randy's file of lulz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Also I'm a big fan of the wind history graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Also I'm a big fan of the wind history graphic: Ovum of Nadine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Tropical storm watches issued for the Azores, as they prepare to get hit a 2nd time by the same storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Tropical storm watches issued for the Azores, as they prepare to get hit a 2nd time by the same storm. The amazing thing is how rare storms are all the way out there in general. I would have to say Nadine is a 100 year storm. (not in way that made any hurricane geeks happy but amazing non the less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Nadine's track resembles the chase sequence at the end of a Benny Hill episode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 06z GFS is hilarious. Slings Nadine around the strong XT low, but doesn't absorb it (it absorbs 96L) then leaves the associated energy of Nadine behind just SW of the Azores and it appears that by day 15 its trapped underneath a ridge around 35N 54W heading W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 06z GFS is hilarious. Slings Nadine around the strong XT low, but doesn't absorb it (it absorbs 96L) then leaves the associated energy of Nadine behind just SW of the Azores and it appears that by day 15 its trapped underneath a ridge around 35N 54W heading W. Oh No. Would Nadine be classified as post-tropical or something, and then flare up again, based on that scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Oh No. Would Nadine be classified as post-tropical or something, and then flare up again, based on that scenario? Post tropical for sure, but it's very compact and distinct, with little or no frontal features, sub 18C SSTs, peaks at around 50N and is partially shielded from shear until it's on the western half of the XT low it starts to weaken markedly, but it's still identifiable by day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Post tropical for sure, but it's very compact and distinct, with little or no frontal features, sub 18C SSTs, peaks at around 50N and is partially shielded from shear until it's on the western half of the XT low it starts to weaken markedly, but it's still identifiable by day 6. Of course, it's post tropical by then, but what I'm saying is, if it really gets all the way back down to 35/54, like the GFS says, could it regenerate into a T.S.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Of course, it's post tropical by then, but what I'm saying is, if it really gets all the way back down to 35/54, like the GFS says, could it regenerate into a T.S.? It could, but verbatim is under a cyclonic upper level environment the whole time after returning, so it's probably not fully tropical by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 06z GFS is hilarious. Slings Nadine around the strong XT low, but doesn't absorb it (it absorbs 96L) then leaves the associated energy of Nadine behind just SW of the Azores and it appears that by day 15 its trapped underneath a ridge around 35N 54W heading W. Post tropical for sure, but it's very compact and distinct, with little or no frontal features, sub 18C SSTs, peaks at around 50N and is partially shielded from shear until it's on the western half of the XT low it starts to weaken markedly, but it's still identifiable by day 6. GFS 06z @ 84 Hours GFS 06z @ 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 GFS 06z @ 84 Hours GFS 06z @ 120 hours. Holy shoot! That thing could actually regenerate tropically if it gets that far South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 GFS 06z @ 84 Hours GFS 06z @ 120 hours. Thanks! Second image is @132hours, but otherwise they are labeled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Second image is @132hours, but otherwise they are labeled correctly. Ooops... yea fixed. The shear is too strong on the 06z GFS for regeneration, but that's mainly because Nadine never gets perfectly under the mid-latitude trough that can shelter it from the stronger north-westerly mid-latitude flow. This is obviously a low probability event, since Nadine has to keep its distance from the mid-latitude trough to avoid absorption, while not get too far away that its not able to re-align with the trough once it swings back southward. Still though, there is some potential, and its telling that the GFS is growing stronger with Nadine in the + 84 hour time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Ooops... yea fixed. The shear is too strong on the 06z GFS for regeneration, but that's mainly because Nadine never gets perfectly under the mid-latitude trough that can shelter it from the stronger north-westerly mid-latitude flow. This is obviously a low probability event, since Nadine has to keep its distance from the mid-latitude trough to avoid absorption, while not get too far away that its not able to re-align with the trough once it swings back southward. Still though, there is some potential, and its telling that the GFS is growing stronger with Nadine in the + 84 hour time frame. Could at least be an outlooked tropical wave, and if it did develop again at some point, would re-acquire the name Nadine, since it is the same system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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