PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Probably the best satellite presentation Nadine has had its entire lifespan with a well defined eye and convection (albiet moderate) rotating in all quadrants. Nadine looked better as an actual hurricane... this looks like a loose mess to me. Maybe as Nadine approaches warmer waters, better convection can form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 WOW GFS joins ECMWF in basically moving the storm NW for a while, then curling back South... Full Loop coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 That's nothing...12z Euro builds a mega Bermuda ridge, and by day 10 Nadine is Moving SW around 25N 50W... That will doom it, because that's too close to the tropics, and indeed it's weakening at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 That's nothing...12z Euro builds a mega Bermuda ridge, and by day 10 Nadine is Moving SW around 25N 50W... That will doom it, because that's too close to the tropics, and indeed it's weakening at that time range. I still say even a 30 knot tropical depression getting South of 25ºN after weeks North of there would be mega-cool. And if Nadine can get to 60ºW I'll just plotz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I still say even a 30 knot tropical depression getting South of 25ºN after weeks North of there would be mega-cool. And if Nadine can get to 60ºW I'll just plotz. At this point I'm cheering for Nadine to break the world record of longevity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 At this point I'm cheering for Nadine to break the world record of longevity. Same here... let's hope this doesn't get down to the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 That's nothing...12z Euro builds a mega Bermuda ridge, and by day 10 Nadine is Moving SW around 25N 50W... That will doom it, because that's too close to the tropics, and indeed it's weakening at that time range. Same here... let's hope this doesn't get down to the tropics The ECMWF is just plain bonkers... the system is weakening due to strong northerly shear in that time frame, but not only is it not showing signs of recurvature but its actually continuing to back southwest. Nadine has a shot at the record if the ECMWF is on to something, because it would probably take at least another 5 days from that position for the system to recurve. what an unusual pattern in the Atlantic basin for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Both the 00z ECMWF and 06-12z GFS have Nadine on the map in 240 hours still in the middle of the central Atlantic. If that were to verify, Nadine would have a total lifespan of 25 days which would have Nadine in 3rd behind Ginger and the unnamed TC in 1899. It would also put the system 4th overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 Both the 00z ECMWF and 06-12z GFS have Nadine on the map in 240 hours still in the middle of the central Atlantic. If that were to verify, Nadine would have a total lifespan of 25 days which would have Nadine in 3rd behind Ginger and the unnamed TC in 1899. It would also put the system 4th overall. At this point, I'm not only rooting for it to become the longest ever, but I hope that, after that shear passes, Nadine is able to strengthen, continue moving S/W, and make landfall in Florida as a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 At this point, I'm not only rooting for it to become the longest ever, but I hope that, after that shear passes, Nadine is able to strengthen, continue moving S/W, and make landfall in Florida as a major hurricane. Todays 12z GFS. Here I'll just do a quick back-forth animation of the initialization and the 384 hour forecast. We are looking at 850 hPa vorticity (color shaded), with 250 hPa wind vectors (barbs), and 500 hPa heights (black contours). Before you ask the question, yup thats Nadine 16 days from now, no closer to recurving than it was at the initialization. Logic would dictate that this won't happen, but still worth a good laugh. Here is the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Todays 12z GFS. Here I'll just do a quick back-forth animation of the initialization and the 384 hour forecast. We are looking at 850 hPa vorticity (color shaded), with 250 hPa wind vectors (barbs), and 500 hPa heights (black contours). Before you ask the question, yup thats Nadine 16 days from now, no closer to recurving than it was at the initialization. Logic would dictate that this won't happen, but still worth a good laugh. We will see if it can make a run at the longevity record of this puppy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Lol...another stall out forecasted at the end of the NHC track now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Regaurdless of weather it sets the record for longevity, It's already set the record for the most boring storm in history. Whats it been 14 days and the best it did was CAT1 and it's not dead yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 Regaurdless of weather it sets the record for longevity, It's already set the record for the most boring storm in history. Whats it been 14 days and the best it did was CAT1 and it's not dead yet! The longest lived storms in the Atlantic rarely get exciting due to the nature of the atmospheric patterns that have to be occurring for such longevity to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Lol...another stall out forecasted at the end of the NHC track now GFS hits the Azores a second time, while the HWRF basically stalls her a couple hundred miles south of the Azores. Even the GFS has it slowing way down and just drifting East later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 You can thank the really strong blocking pattern over the North Atlantic this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 You can thank the really strong blocking pattern over the North Atlantic this month. You can also thank the huge anticyclonic wave-breaking event that occurred in the West Pacific last week that spurred a strong Rossby Wave Train that lead to the enhanced ridging over the Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 And for that you can probably thank STY Sanba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 And for that you can probably thank STY Sanba Bingo... It will be interesting to see if the Jerlawat and Ewiniar can essentially cause a repeat pattern, albeit less meriodonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Bingo... It will be interesting to see if the Jerlawat and Ewiniar can essentially cause a repeat pattern, albeit less meriodonal. I suspect Jelawat will be the bigger contributor, since the latent heat release will be almost an order of magnitude larger than Ewiniar, but yeah. Take a look at some of Euro ensemble spag charts for next week. They don't have a clue because they are having difficulty setting up the wave train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Nadine is getting better organized and there is a chance that it could get back to hurricane status once more in the next 24 hours. There's already a partial eyewall shown in MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Phil, good post and we indirectly discussed the tropic action in the west pac over in the SNE forum too. Those are good visuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 BTW, Nadine looks a bit annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Getting close... its about as far south as its going to get, so it will have to make due with 26 degree C SSTs. Fortunately the tropopause is lower than normal over the storm, so cooler SSTs won't prevent moderate convection from continuing to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Bingo... It will be interesting to see if the Jerlawat and Ewiniar can essentially cause a repeat pattern, albeit less meriodonal. Yeah, this has been a very persistent NH pattern for most of the summer into the early fall. The models are hitting the amplification in the GOA region pretty hard to start off October with the big EPO reversal over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I suspect Jelawat will be the bigger contributor, since the latent heat release will be almost an order of magnitude larger than Ewiniar, but yeah. Take a look at some of Euro ensemble spag charts for next week. They don't have a clue because they are having difficulty setting up the wave train. Yep, just like when the forecasting uncertainty was high with Nadine last week. Phil, good post and we indirectly discussed the tropic action in the west pac over in the SNE forum too. Those are good visuals. Thanks... I am prepping for a map discussion tomorrow where this will be the focal point for our discussion. Its always fascinating to watch the energy with rossby wave trains propagate faster than the actual wave themselves, which leads to these trails of anomalous flow that can circumnavigate the globe. In fact, there is some evidence that the wave-train that was enhanced by Sanba might have initially been kicked off by the ET of Leslie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Yep, just like when the forecasting uncertainty was high with Nadine last week. Thanks... I am prepping for a map discussion tomorrow where this will be the focal point for our discussion. Its always fascinating to watch the energy with rossby wave trains propagate faster than the actual wave themselves, which leads to these trails of anomalous flow that can circumnavigate the globe. In fact, there is some evidence that the wave-train that was enhanced by Sanba might have initially been kicked off by the ET of Leslie. That's fascinating (the part about Leslie). Will that evidence be a part of your discussion and is there any way you can share it here afterwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 With Nadine also missing the next trough, as long as it persists it should still be active through at least October 3, about 20-21 days as a tropical cyclone. According to Wikipedia's stats, this would put Nadine around the 6th longest lasting tropical cyclone on record, and according to a list posted on Dr. Master's wunderground blog, it would be the 2nd or potentially the longest lasting tropical cyclone since 1950. After October 3rd it finally looks like Nadine's future may be in trouble with the persistent North Atlantic ridging breaking down as the ridging spreads into the eastern US, possibly the strongest since 9/14, with decreasing heights over the North Atlantic. I wouldn't be completely surprised if Nadine again finds a way to last even longer, especially if it stays further south as long as conditions remain favorable for Nadine to persist, but by that time I suspect Nadine may finally be approaching its end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Nadine back up to a hurricane as of 11 AM. FTR, the longest lasting storm last decade... Hurricane Kyle (2002)... had 89 advisories issued on it. We are at 64 with Nadine now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Nadine back up to a hurricane as of 11 AM. FTR, the longest lasting storm last decade... Hurricane Kyle (2002)... had 89 advisories issued on it. We are at 64 with Nadine now. Looks like it wont make it for longest lasting ever...only Canadian and NOGAPS support the SW track, which is like a kiss of death to that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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