Analog96 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 12z GFS and Euro flip-flop once more, now showing Nadine missing the trough and moving south...moreso in the Euro, than the GFS...but there's still extratropical Nadine remains at day 12 in the GFS. For whatever reason, when storms get out in that part of the Atlantic, they tend to hang around longer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Really...by day 10, Nadine is 50mi west of it's initialization point in the Euro :S And the funny thing is, since it's weaker now, it won't upwell as much cool water like a stronger storm would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 19, 2012 Author Share Posted September 19, 2012 I love how the 12Z Euro makes a perfect triangle with Nadine even when one loops from hour 240 to hour 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Nadine might turn out to become the most interesting track of the 2012 hurricane season. It will also be interesting to see if they break tradition and call Nadine post-tropical over the next 24-48 hours as the convection continues to remain anemic over the circulation center. The best analog to what Nadine is going through right now is probably Alberto 2000, which came closet to achieving extratropical transition before it got stuck under an amplifying ridge and was deflected back westward as the ridge built overhead. Here is a monthly loop of August 2000, which captures the entire lifecycle of Alberto. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/2000/atl/aug.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 You can't make this stuff up, Nadine threads the needle that is the straight of Gibraltar and ends up making landfall between the French Rivera and Spain at 180 hours as a distinct cyclone. An obviously highly unlikely solution. I think the GFS and the ECMWF depiction from yesterday is a far more likely outcome as the mid-level ridge progged to move overhead of Nadine is very strong and teleconnects well to the Rossby wave train being produced by the ET of Sanba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 You can't make this stuff up, Nadine threads the needle that is the straight of Gibraltar and ends up making landfall between the French Rivera and Spain at 180 hours as a distinct cyclone. An obviously highly unlikely solution. I think the GFS and the ECMWF depiction from yesterday is a far more likely outcome as the mid-level ridge progged to move overhead of Nadine is very strong and teleconnects well to the Rossby wave train being produced by the ET of Sanba. I hope this happens just for all the precedents it would set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I hate everything about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I hate everything about this storm. I'm sure its pain to forecast for a system that is rather weak with the track forecast being so highly uncertain. I still remain skeptical that Nadine ever becomes extratropical within the forecast period unless it shows increased evidence of recurving. While the deterministic solutions have shifted eastward, the ensembles are still nearly split down the middle in regards to a West vs. East track. This is probably one of the hardest track forecasts of the year, even beating out Debby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Euro GFS now have a day 6 track near southern Spain and Portugal. I could see a 65kt wallop in that area cause the storms about 980mb and moving with the westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Euro GFS now have a day 6 track near southern Spain and Portugal. I could see a 65kt wallop in that area cause the storms about 980mb and moving with the westerlies. Both the ECMWF and GFS are also projecting the system to be warm core at landfall, with the system only undergoing extra-tropical transition thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Both the ECMWF and GFS are also projecting the system to be fully warm core at landfall, with the system only undergoing extra-tropical transition thereafter. Gfs is about 24hrs faster and 984mb compared to the Euros 966mb. they both show about 75kt winds just offshore from SW tip of Portragul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Gfs is about 24hrs faster and 984mb compared to the Euros 966mb. they both show about 75kt winds just offshore from SW tip of Portragul. The differences in landfall intensity by pressure is probably analogous to the resolution differences in both models. Sea surface temperatures in this region are actually not that different from what the system is currently facing, so from a thermodynamic standpoint, the environment won't be getting worse. There will likely also be some baroclinic enhancement via favorable jet streak positioning as the storm makes landfall if the GFS/ECMWF deterministic solutions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 It would be historic if Nadine was to follow the ECM/GFS - Vince made landfall as a weakening tropical depression while this is still modeled to remain a strong system. It's a close call with the ridging but my guess would be that it follows an eastward track rather than a westward one. A short range trend on the GFS for 18z Friday, 24 hours out, shows more interaction with the trough to its NE (I'm not too familiar with some weather terms - would that be a shortwave trough?). In the frames after 18z Friday, the most recent runs show a further east track while the earlier runs either stall Nadine or take it back west (0z GFS). It's not a guarantee that Nadine continues east towards Portugal and Spain but recent trends seem to give more credibility to this scenario. The GEFS individual members still aren't helpful with a west/east split although the 12z ensembles do have more members progressing east into Europe than the other recent runs. 0z GFS hour 42 6z GFS hour 36 12z GFS hour 30 18z GFS hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Interesting... NHC now classified Nadine as subtropical. I don't remember seeing a tropical cyclone become subtropical in recent years at all; if I remember correctly I think this only happened once before. NADINE HAS UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING TRANSFORMATION DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL...A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF NADINE...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS HAD RECENTLY. THE STORM HAS A LARGER-THAN- AVERAGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND DISTRIBUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NADINE POST-TROPICAL WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO FIT MOST OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT FROM AN UNUSUAL WAY OF GETTING THERE. THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT NADINE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Mwahahahaha at 18z GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Lol... this definitely fits the subtitle description of the "most hilarious storm ever" Went in just 3 advisories from tropical to subtropical to post-tropical: WHILE NADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WARM CORE AND A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST 15 HOURS OR SO. WHAT CONVECTION THAT CURRENTLY REMAINS IS IN POORLY-DEFINED BANDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT REALLY FIT THE DEFINITION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO IT IS DECLARED TO BE POST-TROPICAL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT DUE TO A LACK OF DATA NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Lol... this definitely fits the subtitle description of the "most hilarious storm ever" Went in just 3 advisories from tropical to subtropical to extratropical: It's not really extratropical, either. It's just listed as "post-tropcial". Extratropical would really have to have fronts, and Nadine does not. The disco says that it is still warm core, just does not have enough convection to really be considered tropical, but it could come back at any time. Weirdest disco I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 It's not really extratropical, either. It's just listed as "post-tropcial". Extratropical would really have to have fronts, and Nadine does not. The disco says that it is still warm core, just does not have enough convection to really be considered tropical, but it could come back at any time. Weirdest disco I've ever seen. Fixed that part, I overlooked that part of the post. It's easily one of the weirdest storms I've tracked; I don't remember the last time I saw a NHC discussion that was this uncertain about the forecast, the track guidance isn't helping either with the GFS ensembles still all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Smart move to call it post tropical...Buys some time for the models to agree into one of the scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I hate everything about this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 So if it's not subtropical, it's... a warm seclusion? Warm occlusion (see latest ascat)? Just another warm cored gale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 But seriously, I hate everything about this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 So if it's not subtropical, it's... a warm seclusion? Warm occlusion (see latest ascat)? Just another warm cored gale? I'm on the edge of my seat wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 So if it's not subtropical, it's... a warm seclusion? Warm occlusion (see latest ascat)? Just another warm cored gale? How about "piece of crap"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 But seriously, I hate everything about this system I didn't even Josh's lips move in any of your last 3 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I didn't even Josh's lips move in any of your last 3 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Smart move to call it post tropical...Buys some time for the models to agree into one of the scenarios. LOL it's a cop out so they don't have to issue more advisories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 LOL it's a cop out so they don't have to issue more advisories! I'm all for the NHC freeing themselves of this garbage. Why should they issue advisories on this when they could be doing something useful with the time-- like postanalysis on 2012's other crap storms, or some 19th-century reanalysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I'm all for the NHC freeing themselves of this garbage. Why should they issue advisories on this when they could be doing something useful with the time-- like postanalysis on 2012's other crap storms, or some 19th-century reanalysis? LOL well in all fairness, it IS something of a concern for the Azores, and possibly even the Canary Islands and the Iberian Peninsula if it takes the Eastward course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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