Amped Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The bands have a pearl string look to them. I've seen that a lot berfore tropical storm start to deepen. I don't know if it correletes well with intesification though, just a weenie observation I've made looking at sat pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I wouldn't go that far. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED NADINE HAD DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CDO FEATURE HAVE FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS EXISTS Nadine really doesn't look bad at this time. Many tropical cyclones struggled when passing through this part of the Atlantic this year which I'm keeping in mind and is my main concern regarding Nadine, but it's actually looking not bad compared to the other storms that went through this region, forward speed isn't as rapid as the previous storms at a somewhat decent 15 mph, and wind shear, although not the most favorable it can possibly be, doesn't appear to be strong enough to inhibit development. I'm not completely sure about RI although it does look good for additional intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I'm not completely sure about RI although it does look good for additional intensification. 43% chance of 25kts of RI in the next 24 hours is 3.5x the sample mean. Pretty high. Consensus from multiple tools is 35%. ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demaria/NHCPG/12091212AL1412_shipsp.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 43% chance of 25kts of RI in the next 24 hours is 3.5x the sample mean. Pretty high. Consensus from multiple tools is 35%. ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demaria/NHCPG/12091212AL1412_shipsp.txt I had a little doubt initially about the rate of intensification last night although it has intensified quickly early today and maintained its better appearance. These RI stats are pretty high, a category 1 hurricane is pretty much a lock although it will be interesting to see if Nadine can intensify more than expected during this time frame. The 12z intensity guidance which the new NHC outlook is generally close to shows another 36 hours of intensification before the intensification rate levels off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I believe we have Hurricane Nadine on our hands here now.. ADT shows this to be the case and so does AMSU CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation: TROPICAL STORM NADINE Wednesday 12sep12 Time: 1647 UTC Latitude: 19.80 Longitude: -48.24 Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 23 [1<--->30] ----------------------------------------------------------------- | Estimated MSLP: 983 hPa | Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 70 kts | Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 7mb +/- 8kts ) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.56 Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.78 Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.13 RMW: 37 km RMW Source is: TPC Environmental Pressure: 1010 (TPC) Satellite: NOAA-19 ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 12 Time (UTC): 1800 And so does SATCON CURRENT ESTIMATE Date (yyyymmddhh): 2012091216 SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 984 hPa MSW = 69 kt ADT: 988 hPa 65 kt Scene: UNFRM CIMSS AMSU: 983 hPa 70 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC) CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 I believe we have Hurricane Nadine on our hands here now.. ADT shows this to be the case and so does AMSU CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation: TROPICAL STORM NADINE Wednesday 12sep12 Time: 1647 UTC Latitude: 19.80 Longitude: -48.24 Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 23 [1<--->30] ----------------------------------------------------------------- | Estimated MSLP: 983 hPa | Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 70 kts | Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 7mb +/- 8kts ) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.56 Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.78 Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.13 RMW: 37 km RMW Source is: TPC Environmental Pressure: 1010 (TPC) Satellite: NOAA-19 ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 12 Time (UTC): 1800 And so does SATCON CURRENT ESTIMATE Date (yyyymmddhh): 2012091216 SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 984 hPa MSW = 69 kt ADT: 988 hPa 65 kt Scene: UNFRM CIMSS AMSU: 983 hPa 70 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC) CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA Nope, just a 55 KT tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I believe we have Hurricane Nadine on our hands here now.. ADT shows this to be the case and so does AMSU Still a tropical storm as of NHC's 5 PM advisory, although it's up to 65 mph/994 mb. NHC's discussion mentions a slightly more assymetric appearance and some dry air to the north. Still looks to be a hurricane tonight as long as it continues to intensify close to its current rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 HWRF makes Nadine a 105 knot cyclone eventually and actually turns it into a relatively annular system. Could be a somewhat interesting cyclone to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Look who writes NHC advisories now. WTNT44 KNHC 122032 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012 THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH A COMMA-TYPE CLOUD APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DRY AIR ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE COULD BE ERODING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN SIZE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES. ON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NADINE MOVES NORTH OF 30N LATITUDE...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NEAR AND OVER NADINE. THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE 1200 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE 1200 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT. UNTIL THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE HEADING OF THE STORM HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 310/14. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF.. HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 4- AND 5-DAY NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER FOR TRACK PREDICTION THIS YEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 20.0N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.3N 50.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 23.3N 52.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 25.5N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 28.0N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 31.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 32.5N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Look who writes NHC advisories now. One of the NHC forecasters (Pasch) looks to be visiting the new HPC facility, and they are probably doing some tests. HPC is the backup for NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 One of the NHC forecasters (Pasch) looks to be visiting the new HPC facility, and they are probably doing some tests. HPC is the backup for NHC. Exactly. This is why they put this out the other day. Seems like they are just running some tests like you said. BEGIN HPC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al142012_al912012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209101416 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 One of the NHC forecasters (Pasch) looks to be visiting the new HPC facility, and they are probably doing some tests. HPC is the backup for NHC. When I visited the TPC some 10 years ago, I got to do a forecast with Stewart for hurricane flossie in the PAC. That day, there was a member of HPC visiting the office to do some review. Sounds like they go to both places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Euro 850 mb winds seem suggestive the Azores might see hurricane conditions. I can't eyeball the top 850 mb winds quite well enough, or be confident in a reduction over sub-tropical oceans (or be sure the model is right) to say that, but this is just one image and the model affects the Azores for over 2 days. ETA: the Nadine floater suggests hitting Luzon has really knocked it down a peg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 ETA: the Nadine floater suggests hitting Luzon has really knocked it down a peg. Something weird is going on with the floaters... anyways, the Sanba floater suggests Nadine exploded into a category 5 hurricane in barely a few hours - that is some impressive intensification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 I'm going to laugh if Nadine never becomes a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 I'm going to laugh if Nadine never becomes a hurricane. This is ending up like all storms this year in this part of the Atlantic that didn't form way out in the ocean (Gordon, Michael, Kirk), such as Leslie which also developed quickly, then struggled until briefly becoming a hurricane. Trends apparently like to repeat themselves this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 HWRF makes Nadine a 105 knot cyclone eventually and actually turns it into a relatively annular system. Could be a somewhat interesting cyclone to follow. Not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 00z SHIPs was initialized with 65kt, so bearing any sudden disorganization in the next couple hours, we should have Hurricane Nadine with the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 00z SHIPs was initialized with 65kt, so bearing any sudden disorganization in the next couple hours, we should have Hurricane Nadine with the next advisory. Not sure if it's 100% accurate but this model tracking site just listed it as a hurricane. The exaggerated as usual ADT is also showing strengthening, if disregarding its 77 knot maximum and only focusing on intensification trends, and satellite shows Nadine has a better, more hurricane-like structure than it did previously which appears to be improving, unlike the close call a few days ago. IMO, it's possible at this rate that we could finally have hurricane Nadine tonight, although I'm not sure how much she's going to intensify beyond this point. Starting point is similar in some ways to Leslie which took its time until becoming a hurricane, except that Nadine won't be stalling like Leslie did and will be moving into the part of the Atlantic which had this year's strongest hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 ATCF says it's a hurricane. Not really that surprised. NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005. AL, 14, 2012091500, , BEST, 0, 296N, 532W, 65, 985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 BULLETIN HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012 ...NADINE BECOMES THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 52.8W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1570 MI...2530 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES ------ from the end of the discussion NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 ADT up to 83 knots now with convection wrapping around the center. Could try and quickly bump the winds up 20 knots or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 ADT up to 83 knots now with convection wrapping around the center. Could try and quickly bump the winds up 20 knots or so. CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.8 / 969.4mb/ 84.8kt The latest...from ADT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 No love for Nadine. If she survives the shear down the road she could pull something interesting in the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Best track says a tropical storm, and I can't argue. Looks sick. And not in a cool hip "that is sick" way. Like it ate a bad potato. Still hoping, as some models suggest, it can make it maybe hang around for a week or more, maybe become a cane again, and add to the ACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 My hopes of Nadine wondering around for weeks, maybe not. NHC suggesting whether captured by a cold core low or just losing convection over cool SSTs, it is headed for post-tropical purgatory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 19, 2012 Author Share Posted September 19, 2012 Well looks like the Azores are taking a beating right now... at least Nadine did *something*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 12z GFS and Euro flip-flop once more, now showing Nadine missing the trough and moving south...moreso in the Euro, than the GFS...but there's still extratropical Nadine remains at day 12 in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 12z GFS and Euro flip-flop once more, now showing Nadine missing the trough and moving south...moreso in the Euro, than the GFS...but there's still extratropical Nadine remains at day 12 in the GFS. Can't we just do the humane thing and take it out back and shoot it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Can't we just do the humane thing and take it out back and shoot it? Really...by day 10, Nadine is 50mi west of it's initialization point in the Euro :S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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