PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Might as well go ahead and make the thread with this: BEGIN HPC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al912012_al142012.ren FSTDA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Might as well go ahead and make the thread with this: BEGIN HPC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al912012_al142012.ren FSTDA BEGIN HPC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al142012_al912012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209101416 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 this thread should be exciting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 BEGIN HPC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al142012_al912012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209101416 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Ugh... they need to stop prematurely pulling the trigger on the ATCF. At least I titled the thread 91L and not 14L. Still, it's likely to become a TD soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Ugh... they need to stop prematurely pulling the trigger on the ATCF. At least I titled the thread 91L and not 14L. Seems like they've been doing it more often this year. I've totally stopped relying on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Fishyfish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 The invest is still to the east of the center of the convectively suppressed phase of an eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave. While it is to be seen if this Kelvin wave will attenuate, the tropical cyclone is still in an environment (relative to the convectively suppressed phase of the Kelvin wave) characterized by reduced low-to-mid-level vertical wind shear, and increased low-level cyclonic relative vorticity (enhanced low-level equatorial westerly flow in association to the large-scale low-level diveregence associated with the convectively suppressed phase of the Kelvin wave). If this thing manages to spin up into a tropical cyclone, I see it struggling during the next couple of days. You occassionally see the decoupling of convection with the low-level vortex during these types of passages... followed by intensification once the convectively suppressed phase is well to the east of the tropical cyclone, or if the tropical cyclone recurves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Ugh. At least it's not a big tease. Next, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Ugh. At least it's not a big tease. Next, please! Don't worry! GFS recurves another wave behind 91L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Don't worry! GFS recurves another wave behind 91L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 The wave after the wave after 91 looks pretty interesting on the 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 The wave after the wave after 91 looks pretty interesting on the 0Z GFS. Please show the relevant frame. I'm too lazy to fish for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Please show the relevant frame. I'm too lazy to fish for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 The wave after the wave after 91 looks pretty interesting on the 0Z GFS. Actually, it is two waves after 91L. The run ends with it crossing over everyone's favorite island, Shredderola, on 9/26. Of course, talking about day 16 on the op. GFS is purely for entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Actually, it is two waves after 91L. Which is what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 . So far in the future. But it is encouraging to see a feature in the Caribbean-- i.e., something that's not automatically fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Which is what I said. I apologize as I misread it. I misread it as you saying the wave after 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 91L makes me a little sad. 4 and 5 days ago a couple of runs of the GFS, and more ensemble members, said I'd have a 74th anniversary 1938 storm. Not to be. Too well developed to be at 15ºN and 43ºW and not fish the way this season has gone. Convection not quite over the center, but they can drop the TD tag on it at any time. 6Z GFS 2 week fanstasy system is weaker and North of the islands, as if that is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Good for ACE, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 The Global Hawk is enroute from VA and will be getting a workout on TD 14... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 The Global Hawk is enroute from VA and will be getting a workout on TD 14... 'The AV6 is currently flying... Luckily it has a camera.. A current snapshot of where it is flying over (20.7N, 51.8W): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Moved some posts over to the general Atlantic thread where they were more appropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Dry air following 14L per CIMSS MIMIC TPW, but I'd think it is far enough not to really be affecting it. Some Easterly shear, I think. Somewhere between 10 and 20 knots per CIMMS analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 11, 2012 Author Share Posted September 11, 2012 Looking at the 12Z GFS and Euro, it appears we may be headed towards another trappage/blocking type pattern with 14L. Can we get a more progressive pattern please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Euro recurveus interruptus with a turn back due West near 35ºN would be potentially exciting. Seems counterintuitive, but exciting. If a tropical cyclone came from around 50ºW and well North of 30ºN to hit the ECUSA, it would surpass the South Texas 2004 Christmas Snow as the biggest weather miracle since Exodus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Upgraded to Nadine. Name waster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Upgraded to Nadine. Name waster. I wouldn't go that far. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED NADINE HAD DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CDO FEATURE HAVE FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS EXISTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Everyday I'm samplin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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